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Hubert Davis is officially on the hot seat after UNC's historic collapse
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- Hubert Davis is officially on the hot seat after UNC's historic collapse
North Carolina coach Hubert Davis has never spent a season truly on the hot seat.
That changed Thursday night.
No. 11 seed VCU erased a 19-point second-half deficit to stun UNC, 82-78, in overtime. The comeback was the largest in a first-round NCAA Tournament game and the second-biggest in tournament history. Only No. 7 Nevada 's 22-point comeback against No. 2 Cincinnati in 2018 was bigger.
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As a result, Davis has gone from warm to bottomless-pit-of-hell hot.
Since UNC's run to the national title game in 2022, the follow seasons have been anything but linear. The Tar Heels missed the NCAA Tournament in 2023, bounced back with a Sweet 16 showing in 2024 and crashed out with back-to-back first-round exits the last two seasons.
Zoom out, and the pattern looks even uglier. This is the third time in the last four NCAA Tournament trips that UNC has gone one-and-done, a stretch that dates to Roy Williams' final season in 2020-21.
You have to go all the way to 1978-80 to find a similar low stretch. Back then, the Tar Heels were bounced in their first game three straight years. That slump was part of what was, to that point, the worst NCAA Tournament run in program history. UNC lost its opener in four of five seasons from 1976 to 1980.
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The historical context only makes Saturday more damning. North Carolina has won 48 of its 50 NCAA Tournament games when it leads by 10 or more points at halftime. Its two losses have come during Davis' watch: against VCU on Thursday night and in the 2022 national championship game.
In the final 7:45 of regulation, the Tar Heels went 0-for-9 from the field and 4-for-9 at the free-throw line. They turned the ball over seven times in the second half and overtime and did not record a single assist in the final 16 minutes of game time after posting an 18-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio before that stretch.
When breaking down whether UNC would survive past the first weekend , the two biggest concerns were free-throw shooting and perimeter defense. The Tar Heels validated those concerns. They went 12-for-20 (60%) at the line and allowed VCU to shoot 11-for-26 (42%) from 3-point range. Those two issues showed up in two of the most critical plays of the game: Hill's go-ahead 3 and Veesaar going 0-for-2 from the stripe with a chance to tie.
Even so, the buck stops with Davis, no matter how much felt out of his control.
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Or did it?
UNC basically shortened the rotation to one player when it mattered most. In the second half and overtime, the only reserve Davis trusted was Jonathan Powell , who logged 21 minutes. The rest of the bench — Kyan Evans , Zayden High and Jaydon Young — combined for 16 minutes, and High saw the floor after halftime almost exclusively in rebounding situations.
That meant the Tar Heels were running on fumes late, and it showed. While North Carolina's starters hit the wall, VCU kept sending fresh legs onto the court, compiling 84 bench minutes to Carolina's 37. The Rams had another gear; UNC was stuck in mud. That goes a long way toward explaining how a 19-point cushion evaporated: the sloppy turnovers, the dead legs at the line, the blown rotations on the perimeter.
That's coaching. VCU coach Phil Martelli Jr. worked the chessboard all night, stealing minutes with his bench and outmaneuvering Davis possession by possession. In the final stretch, it looked like a clinic.
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When asked if he thought his team was gassed down the stretch, Davis pushed back.
"I did not. I didn't," he said.
Pressed on why he stuck with essentially a six-man rotation instead of going nine deep, Davis didn't budge there, either.
"Because that was my decision."
Carolina fans do not want to hear the same blunt responses for much longer after every disappointment. They want success, not failure.
Next season, there will not be ifs, ands or buts. Only absolutes and results.
Could that mean changes in the coaching staff? Could that mean an increase in the name, image and likeness licensing funding pool to get more depth and talent?
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What if UNC doesn't want to wait until next year to make a change? Davis' buyout is $5 million, and it will go down to $3.75 million after April 1. A sudden move is unlikely — a firing of that magnitude is usually planned well in advance, and UNC does not want to be searching for a coach while running around like a headless chicken.
Regardless, the hot topic for next season is whether or not Davis will keep his job. For the first time in his tenure, that's not an overreaction. It's the story.
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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball: Hubert Davis' job security questioned after historic collapse
