How Illinois' Keaton Wagler rose from freshman unknown to superstar

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How Illinois' Keaton Wagler rose from freshman unknown to superstar

How Illinois' Keaton Wagler rose from freshman unknown to superstar

Ehsan Kassim, USA TODAY NETWORK · USA TODAY Sports

Thu, Apr 2, 2026 ·

7 min read

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This story originally published March 19, 2026.

From completely unrecognized to a superstar.

That has been the story of Illinois men's basketball freshman guard Keaton Wagler, who went from an under-recruited 3-star prospect to the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and likely NBA draft lottery pick.

Wagler has led veteran-laden, European-influenced Illinois to the 2026 Final Four. He's averaging a team-leading 17.9 points, breaking the freshman record previously held by Cory Bradford (1998-99). He scored 25 points in Illinois' Elite Eight win over Iowa, leading the Illini to their first Final Four sicne 2005. He also leads the team with 4.3 assists per game and is third on the team with 5.0 rebounds per game.

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Perhaps most notably, he leads the team in minutes played, with 33.8 per game.

His immediate success has surprised even the people who have been in his corner since Day 1, such as his high school coach David Birch at Shawnee Mission Northwest (Kan.) High School.

"The only thing that surprises me is he looks the same at Illinois as he did in the Sunflower League in Kansas," Birch told USA TODAY Sports. "The way he's playing now is the way he played for us for four years. The only thing that surprises me is how quickly his game translated."

Illinois Fighting Illini center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) dunks the ball against the Penn Quakers in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena.
(Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) celebrates after scoring Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Penn Quakers at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Alex Martin/Greenville News)

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) is defended by Penn Quakers guard AJ Levine (0) Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament first round game at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Alex Martin/Greenville News)

Penn Quakers guard Michael Zanoni (7) and Penn Quakers guard AJ Levine (0) defend Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament first round game at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. Illinois Fighting Illini won 105-70.
(Alex Martin/Greenville News)

Kylan Boswell #4 of the Illinois Fighting Illini reacts with teammates after a basket and a foul during the second half against the Penn Quakers in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images)

Ben Humrichous #3 of the Illinois Fighting Illini reacts after making a 3-pointer during the first half against the Penn Quakers in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images)

Keaton Wagler #23 of the Illinois Fighting Illini drives the ball against Cam Thrower #5 of the Penn Quakers during the first half in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images)

The Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) reacts after a play during the second half against the VCU Rams during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena.
(Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini celebrates after a play during the second half against the VCU Rams during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena.
(Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) dunks the ball during the second half against the VCU Rams during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena.
(Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) celebrates after scoring Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament second round game against the VCU Rams at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Alex Martin/Greenville News)

Fans cheer Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament second round game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the VCU Rams at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Alex Martin/Greenville News)

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) shakes hands with VCU Rams guard Nyk Lewis (1) March 21, 2026 after the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament second round game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina)

Illinois Fighting Illini center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) reacts after teammate Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) scored March 21, 2026 during the second half of the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament second round game with VCU Rams at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina)

Illinois Fighting Illini center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) dunks against VCU Rams March 21, 2026 during the second half of the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament second round game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina)

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) scores near VCU Rams forward Michael Belle (8) March 21, 2026 during the first half of the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament second round East Region game at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina)

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) dunks the ball past VCU Rams forward Lazar Djokovic (17) Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Menâ€™s Basketball Tournament second round game at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
(Alex Martin/Greenville News)

Zvonimir Ivisic #44 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrates against the Houston Cougars during the first half in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 26, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini fans cheer against the Houston Cougars during the second half in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 26, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Kenneth Richmond, Getty Images)

David Mirkovic #0 of the Illinois Fighting Illini looks for the rebound against the Houston Cougars in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 26, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) grabs a rebound against the Houston Cougars in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) shoots on Houston Cougars forward Kalifa Sakho (14) in the first half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) reacts against the Houston Cougars in the second half during a Sweet Sixteen game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images)

Andrej Stojakovic #2 and Keaton Wagler #23 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrate after defeating the Houston Cougars in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 26, 2026 in Houston, Texas
(Kenneth Richmond, Getty Images)

Kylan Boswell #4 and Keaton Wagler #23 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrate after defeating the Houston Cougars in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 26, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) shoots against Iowa Hawkeyes guard Tavion Banks (6) in the first half during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Troy Taormina, Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

(L-R) Keaton Wagler #23, David Mirkovic #0 and Kylan Boswell #4 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrate after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 28, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)

Keaton Wagler #23 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrates after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 28, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) and forward Ben Humrichous (3) celebrate after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini forward Jake Davis (15) reacts in the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images)

(L-R) Keaton Wagler #23, Kylan Boswell #4 and David Mirkovic #0 of the Illinois Fighting Illini celebrate after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Toyota Center on March 28, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
(Alex Slitz, Getty Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood celebrates with the trophy on the podium after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood celebrates after cutting down the net after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images)

Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) cuts down the net after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center.
(Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images)

While Illinois coach Brad Underwood was already singing Wagler's praises after a strong summer, it was still fair to say the scrawny 6-6 guard was an unknown. That was evident to Wagler when Illinois honored its last Final Four team, that 2005 team, during the first timeout of the first quarter of their season opener against Western Michigan on Aug. 29, 2025.

Deron Williams , Luther Head and Dee Brown were among the stars honored from the 2005 NCAA runner-up team that finished 37-2. Wagler was just happy to pose for pictures and talk to them for a few minutes.

"No one really knew who I was at that point," Wagler told USA TODAY Sports. "For everyone, I was just a freshman who they didn't know what to expect."

Wagler changed everyone's tune, and quickly. He earned a start in the season opener for the Fighting Illini on Nov. 3, 2025, against Jackson State: In his college debut, he scored 18 points, adding six rebounds, four assists and two steals in 27 minutes.

In his second game, Wagler scored 22 points in 28 minutes against Florida Gulf Coast. He scored 11 against Texas Tech. After just a few games, he had already caught the attention of former NBA star Peja Stojakovic — the father of Illinois teammate Andrej Stojakovic .

"After a couple of games, he came and dapped me up," Wagler said. Though he didn't have the opportunity to watch Peja Stojakovic growing up — Wagler was born in 2007, and Stojakovic's career ended in 2011 — he knew the magnitude of receiving acknowledgment from the 2011 NBA champion and three-time NBA All-Star.

"It just showed I was going in the right direction. It gives me a lot of confidence to know that I've been playing [well enough] that I've earned the respect of Peja Stojakovic," Wagler said.

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Keaton Wagler NBA Draft stock rise

USA TODAY Sports has projected Wagler as the No. 8 overall pick to in its most recent mock draft .

Likely, no scouts predicted Wagler as an NBA prospect after his freshman season. In fact, entering his senior year of high school, Wagler only had offers from mid-majors such as Colorado State and Drake. It wasn't until Aug. 22, 2024, that he received offers from Minnesota and Illinois. He committed to the Fighting Illini a month later.

Indeed, Birch figured Wagler had all the skills to be an NBA player, but it would take him three to four years to hone his skills.

It took just one phone call for Birch to change his opinion about Wagler's NBA outlook.

"It was Oklahoma City," Birch said. "The way they scout and how well they've done building their roster, just in terms of draft, the way they evaluate players, the way they develop players, and the fact that that was the first one to call, kind of sounded the alarms that, 'Hey, this guy's going to be an NBA player, for sure.'"

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Keaton Wagler's transformation

While Wagler did find early success against lower-level teams, his first three games against high-major teams in Texas Tech, Alabama and Connecticut yielded 11-, eight- and three-point performances, respectively. In those games, he shot 6-of-21 (28.5%) from the field. He fouled out of the game against the Crimson Tide.

Through his first eight games, Wagler was averaging just 13.5 points per game on 8.8 field goal attempts per game, with three single-digit point games. Over the final 24 games, he averaged 19.4 points on 13 shots per game.

"At the start [of the season], I was playing off the ball more," Wagler said. "I got switched to more on the ball after our UConn game and that gave me a lot of confidence that the coaches trusted me to have the ball in my hands and make plays."

Keaton Wagler's breakout performance vs Purdue

Sure, Wagler had 20-point performances against NCAA Tournament teams in Ohio State and Missouri in December, but he saved his biggest performance for a bigger stage.

Against Purdue on Jan. 24, Wagler scored 46 points in an 88-82 win for Illinois. He shot an efficient 13-of-17 from the field and splashed down nine of his 11 3-point attempts. The 46 points were the most points by a visiting player in Mackey Arena history, and the most points by a Big Ten player this season.

"Everyone was talking about how good he had played, but then you go put up 46 at one of the toughest places to play," Birch said. "The [hype] went up a whole other level."

Of course, for Birch, those kinds of performances were nothing new for the 2025 Gatorade Kansas Player of the Year and the 2024-25 Kansas MaxPreps High School Basketball Player of the Year.

Shawnee Mission Northwest won the state title in Wagler's junior season and repeated as champs in 2024-25 when he was a senior.

"What's crazy about that performance was that he did that same kind of thing for us the year before," Birch said. "We had our 7-foot center, who signed with Michigan State, Ethan Taylor, out for four games. And it was our toughest four-game stretch of the season.

"He averaged 30 points a game, 14 rebounds and seven assists at that time. We won all those games. That's what he's doing for Illinois."

Against Michigan on Feb. 27, Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg took up guarding Wagler. But he was guarding him the full length of the court, forcing the ball out of Wagler's hands.

"He was picking me up 94 feet the whole game," Wagler said after the loss to the Wolverines. "He was getting physical, getting through ball screens, just pressuring me at all times, and making it hard."

He admitted that it was a shock for him.

"It's kind of crazy," Just seeing the scouting and how much the scouting report has changed from the beginning of the season to now. Most teams put their top defender on me and try to guard me super physically, not let me catch the ball, guard me 94 feet, just to wear me down.

"I think it just shows the respect that other teams and coaches have for me, and how good a player I've transformed into this season."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Inside Keaton Wagler's rise at Illinois, from unknown to freshman star

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How Illinois' Keaton Wagler rose from freshman unknown to superstar

See the best photos of Illinois basketball's run to 2026 Final Four

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