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The Illinois State Redbirds take on the Southern Illinois Salukis in Carbondale, Illinois, on Saturday, Oct. 17. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Illinois State is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. Southern Illinois, meanwhile, enters as a +7.5 underdog and is +230 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.
Here's my Illinois State vs Southern Illinois predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 17.
Illinois State vs. Southern Illinois Pick: Illinois State -7.5
My Southern Illinois vs. Illinois State best betis on Illinois State to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page , and be sure to download our Action Network app to get the latest picksand College Football betting analysis.
Illinois State vs Southern Illinois point spread: Illinois State -7.5 (-113), Southern Illinois +7.5 (-113)
Illinois State vs Southern Illinois over/under: 53.5 (-113o / -113u)
Illinois State vs Southern Illinois moneyline: Illinois State -310, Southern Illinois +230
Illinois State is fresh off the bye week and looking to regroup after suffering back-to-back losses against Northern Iowa and South Dakota State.
The Redbirds are not nearly the same team we saw make it all the way to the FCS national title game last season, but this next stretch becomes critically important if the 4-2 Redbirds are to make a push for the FCS Playoffs in 2026.
With North Dakota, Youngstown State and South Dakota at the end of the schedule, there's zero margin for error.
The offense has struggled replacing the production of last year's quarterback, Tommy Rittenhouse. Illinois State has rotated Gage Roy — who transferred in from USC — and Beckham Pellant, each seeing action in all six games this year.
Roy has thrown for 862 yards with a 10:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Chase Kwiatkowski is the third-string quarterback, but he comes in on designed running packages, and I would expect to see all three quarterbacks regularly.
Dylan Lord is the top receiver, hauling in 36 passes for 389 yards with five touchdowns, while Stevan Gavric and Alex Herrera have been solid complementary pieces.
The offensive line has played well this season, allowing just seven sacks and creating holes for a strong rushing attack.
Tyler Lofton and Victor Dawson each have four rushing touchdowns to go along with a combined 570 rushing yards. The backfield is deep and will be fresh after a week off. I expect the Southern Illinois front to be tested in this game.
Illinois State's defense did not allow a 20-yard rush at any point in its first four games, but the squad struggled with the rushing attacks of Northern Iowa and South Dakota State.
The defense looked like a unit that badly needed the bye week. The activity in the backfield was not as proficient, but I expect a much better showing from the front in this game against Southern Illinois, which has allowed negative plays and sacks all season.
Southern Illinois was thought to be a preseason contender in the loaded Missouri Valley Conference with the return of quarterback DJ Williams leading an offense that averaged 37 points and 447 yards per game in 2025.
However, Williams was injured in the opener against West Florida, and SIU suffered a stunning loss.
Without Williams, the team struggled against a bad Samford team, but Williams returned against SEMO, where SIU won the War for the Wheel.
The offensive showing was poor against Youngstown State and South Dakota over the last two weeks, however, as SIU has fallen out of contention for the conference title and a spot in the FCS Playoffs.
Williams is tasked with a lot in this offense, and while he has thrown for 1,171 yards, he's completing only 56% of his passes and has thrown just five touchdowns.
The ground game hasn't been as strong either, as the Salukis are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, with Chandler Chapman being the leading rusher with 487 yards. Williams leads the team with six rushing scores.
Kyle Thomas, Markell Quick and Allen Middleton are the three leading receivers, registering a combined 74 catches for 1,049 yards and six touchdowns.
No other receiver on the team has more than 78 receiving yards this season, making these three the targets to watch in this matchup.
The defense has been worked the last couple of weeks against Youngstown State and South Dakota while surrendering 402 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry.
Last week against South Dakota, the Coyotes averaged 8.8 yards per play, and big plays surrendered were a problem for SIU.
The Salukis are playing their eighth straight week while Illinois State is fresh off a bye week. I anticipate the rest advantage to be evident in this matchup.
This line opened with Illinois State listed as a 9.5-point favorite with the total set at 53.5. I can see the appeal for the home 'dog here, and the market has moved in that direction. Illinois State is now a 7.5-point favorite, and I like the Redbirds in this game.
The ground attack will find success against a Southern Illinois front that has been giving up a ton of yardage on the ground this year. Lofton and Dawson have been hard to defend when Illinois State brings in Kwiatkowski.
I expect the Redbirds to rush for 200 yards and control the line of scrimmage, something they have done for much of the season.
Southern Illinois has struggled offensively when facing elevated competition levels, specifically in early-down situations.
The Salukis aren't running the ball successfully and have been held under three yards per rush in three of their last four games. SIU is converting just 35% on third down this season and is only 7-for-28 the last two weeks.
I like Illinois State's defense to show up and create Havoc on Williams, forcing him to scramble and create outside the pocket. SIU has allowed a tremendous amount of Havoc this season, and the negative plays should show up here against a fresh Illinois State front.
This game could be close at the half, but I expect the Illinois State ground attack to assert itself in the second half and for the Redbirds to pull away in the fourth quarter. I'm laying the 7.5 points with Illinois State.
Pick: Illinois State -7.5
