Welcome back to our re-imagining of the Mike Vrabel era with the Tennessee Titans . If you missed Part 1, wherein we fixed the mistakes made by Vrabel , GM Jon Robinson and controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk between 2019 and 2022, you can find it on Tennessean.com.
The Tennessean looks at the decisions that set the Titans on the course toward trading A.J. Brown , firing Vrabel and ultimately cratering toward the bottom of the NFL and asks: What if things were different? This meant rectifying contractual mistakes like picking up Jack Conklin 's fifth-year option, staffing mistakes like the choice to promote Todd Downing to offensive coordinator, free agent mistakes, bad trades and draft blunders like the first-round busts that were Isaiah Wilson , Caleb Farley and Treylon Burks .
In correcting those errors, we built a Titans team that, through the 2022 season is healthy. Ryan Tannehill , Derrick Henry and Brown are still the stars of the offense. Jeffery Simmons and Kevin Byard are still leading the defense. But we've also upgraded the roster with real-life Pro Bowlers and All-Pros like WR Amon-Ra St. Brown , CB Jaylon Johnson , DL Nnamdi Madubuike , guard Quinn Meinerz and RB James Cook .
So far, this has meant building a Titans team that was good enough to lose the Super Bowl following the 2021 season and good enough to cruise into the playoffs in 2022, preserving GM Jon Robinson's job and keeping the Tannehill-Henry-Brown triumvirate alive. But some serious risks will have to be undertaken to prevent this aging roster from collapsing by the time the present day roll around.
The game changes
Up to this point, we've been correcting mistakes . Pick this guy instead of Isaiah Wilson, sign this guy instead of Vic Beasley , etc., etc.
That luxury doesn't exist anymore.
The Tennessee Titans in our alternative reality are in danger of stagnating. The AFC is dominated by Patrick Mahomes , Lamar Jackson , Josh Allen and Joe Burrow rounding into their primes. The Titans don't have that guy.
Now is the time to be aggressive. Because while this version has a stocked Titans' roster with All-Pro talents like receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, guard Quinn Meinerz, defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and cornerback Jaylon Johnson, we've only made the roster stronger , not necessarily championship-ready . The hard truths to acknowledge are as such:
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Ryan Tannehill is heading into his age-35 season. Baker Mayfield , who was signed as insurance in 2022, is on roster, but he's three years removed from his one impressive season as a starter. The options are: Bet on Tannehill staving off the decline for one more year, turn the ball over to Mayfield or attempt to reset with a young quarterback in the draft like Kentucky's Will Levis .
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The defense is talented, but we've been keeping the important positions together with twine. The interior defensive line is strong with Madubuike and Simmons. The linebacker room is solid with Nick Bolton in the middle. Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker are stalwarts at safety. But the two positions that most directly affect the game ― cornerback and edge rusher ― are pretty thin. Jaylon Johnson is a great cornerback (albeit one who's due a new contract). Landry is an above average rusher. Alex Highsmith is fine (and also due a new contract). It's going to be hard for this defense to be great without infusing some serious talent into those rooms.
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Taylor Lewan is about to retire. Even if we slot Christian Darrisaw in at left tackle as we've planned all along, the hole at right tackle is back. Oh, and center Ben Jones is retiring.
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As we know in our real-life timeline, keeping A.J Brown satisfied isn't as simple as just paying him and playing winning football. The Titans kept the player. Now they have to manage the player.
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Derrick Henry is your centerpiece, your future Hall of Famer. He's a pending free agent, and we've drafted James Cook as his successor. What's the plan there?
It's a lot to confront.
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Chapter IV: 2023
The Atlanta Falcons are in dire straits. Coach Arthur Smith started his tenure with back-to-back 7-10 seasons, and Desmond Ridder sure doesn't look like the answer long-term at quarterback. It's time for Robinson and Vrabel to cash in.
In an aggressive move that surprises many, the Titans bet on Mayfield by trading Tannehill to Atlanta in exchange for a second-round pick (No. 44), a third-round pick (No. 75) and Ridder. Tannehill reunites with Smith and now the Titans possess five top-100 picks to play with.
Saving money on the Tannehill contract, the Titans ink Mayfield to a prove-it deal worth $5 million for one year. Henry's still the offensive engine, plus money is coming due for some of your young stars. Simmons gets an extension. Johnson gets an extension. Madubuike gets an extension.
With all this money being spent to keep the young defensive core together, it's time for Vrabel to get aggressive with his staff. Shane Bowen's done a perfectly fine job coordinating the defense, but Vrabel needs more. The Titans hire former Miami coach Brian Flores to replace Bowen, bringing in another defensive mind raised by Bill Belichick to supplement Vrabel.
Without a massive quarterback contract to worry about, the Titans can take one more big swing in free agency. The swing lands them former Baltimore and Kansas City right tackle Orlando Brown Jr., on a four-year, $65 million contract.
Now it's draft time. Here's the haul, including picks acquired from Atlanta: CB Joey Porter Jr. , OLB Tuli Tuipulotu , C John Michael Schmitz , DE Byron Young and TE Darnell Washington .
This team is… pretty great. Frankly, it's the best team in the NFL, and the best team in Titans history. Vrabel's Titans win 15 games, lead the NFL in scoring and own the league's most fearsome defense.
Mayfield ends up being worth the gamble, posting the Titans' first 4,000-yard passing season since moving to Tennessee. Henry is historically great, hitting 2,000 yards for the second time in his career and winning his long-deserved MVP, but Cook puts up eye-popping numbers in small doses. Brown and St. Brown are the league's best one-two punch. The Titans have the best all-around offense in the NFL, and the defense takes a step forward under Flores. Tuipulotu and Young re-energize the pass rush. Porter and Jalen Pitre pair well with Johnson. These Titans cruise to the No. 1 seed in the AFC and pummel the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round en route to the AFC Championship.
But… Mahomes Magic. Kansas City upsets the Titans in the final seconds of the AFC Championship game in front of a despondent Nissan Stadium crowd. Henry trudges off the field in tears. Brown's emotions spill over postgame. Shocked and awed Titans fans are frozen in their seats.
If the best team in franchise history can't bring home the Lombardi Trophy, what team possibly can?
Chapter V: 2024
Aggression worked last year, and the Titans are going to have to endure a lot more of it in 2024 to keep the whole thing from collapsing. Vrabel's quickly approaching the mantle of "best coaches to never win a Super Bowl." Robinson's got a reputation for building great teams, but he's never been in position to draft the game-changing quarterback who'll put the franchise over the top.
Now the Titans sit on the teetering edge between the stars of the old guard and the rejuvenated youth movement who've prolonged the glory days. Most notably: Henry's a free agent and contracts are coming due for St. Brown, Darrisaw, Meinerz and Bolton. There's also the Mayfield problem. Last year he cost $5 million. This year he'll end up costing in excess of $30 million.
OC Wes Phillips gets a head coaching job after the Titans' offensive outburst in 2023, so Vrabel replaces him with San Francisco pass game coordinator Klint Kubiak. Kubiak's arrival entices Mayfield into returning, but the Titans compromise with a $38 million hedged bet, franchise tagging the quarterback.
Now for the hard part: Henry walks, and the Titans don't make a gigantic push to keep him around. The running back wants to go somewhere he can carry a full load, and the Titans have too much faith in Cook to sacrifice his development. Fans revolt. Talking heads excoriate Robinson. The best, most unstoppable player in the NFL changes teams. It's the end of an era.
St. Brown, Darrisaw and Meinerz get their new contracts. Where's all this money coming from?
Well… let's say the Henry decision wasn't actually the hard part.
All roads lead to trading A.J. Brown.
In a blockbuster deal with the Chicago Bears , the Titans send Brown ― who grew increasingly dissatisfied in the shadow of the AFC Championship loss and Henry's departure ― to play with projected No. 1 pick Caleb Williams in exchange for the No. 9 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and a second-round pick in 2025. The reality of paying Brown and St. Brown at the same time, plus the recurring headaches Brown causes, lead to the risky maneuver.
In a couple of weeks, the Titans parted ways with the two cornerstone stars of the best team in franchise history. Faith in Robinson completely erodes.
Free agency moves are a little fewer and farther between because of all the extensions. Veteran wide receivers Mike Williams and Odell Beckham Jr. , sign as consolation prizes. Fans are still furious.
Veteran running back Aaron Jones signs to be Cook's spell back. Fans are still furious.
Teair Tart elects free agency, so the Titans bring back DaQuan Jones after a few years away. Fans are still furious.
In a couple of quietly crucial moves, the Titans replace David Long at linebacker with a cheap veteran option in Zack Baun and sign one of Flores' old edge rushers from Miami in Andrew Van Ginkel . Fans are still furious.
Now it's draft night, fans remain furious, and the Titans shock the league anew.
Robinson packages Mayfield, the No. 9 pick, the Titans' own pick at the end of the first round and the better of their two 2025 second-round picks in a trade with the New England Patriots to move up to the No. 3 slot. With the No. 3 pick, the Titans select QB Drake Maye .
Whatever virus infected Robinson's brain leads to a full-on revolt from the Titans faithful. Mayfield, Henry and Brown led the Titans to 15 wins and the NFL's top-rated offense. Now all of them are gone, replaced by a rookie quarterback who wasn't even the first or second passer picked, a young running back who's got the biggest shoes to fill in franchise history and a bunch of veteran skill players who'll do nothing to draw the attention away from St. Brown.
The rest of the draft is mostly inconsequential in the present tense. The Titans use their late second-round pick on tackle Roger Rosengarten , their third-round pick on receiver Jalen McMillan and their fourth-round pick on running back Braelon Allen .
The Titans took a great team and tore it down in hopes of building to something even greater.
This blows up in Robinson's face.
Cook shows his chops with a Pro Bowl caliber year behind an impressive offensive line and the Vrabel-Flores defense creates havoc at a league-best rate. But Maye's not ready yet. It takes about two months for him to start producing at even a league-average rate. For the first time since 2019, the Titans don't win the AFC South.
The Titans still sneak into the playoffs as a nine-win wild card on the back of their defense, but that's no achievement. Henry looks great in Baltimore. Brown looks great in Chicago. Mayfield stabilizes things in New England . Heads have to roll.
Adams Strunk fires Robinson after nine years. Some fringe analysts applaud Robinson for taking the risks necessary to get a team over the hump in the modern NFL, but the move is mostly welcomed. The league's best roster was willfully dismantled overnight by its own architect.
Vrabel grabs for the power, and he's granted it. The Titans hire a general manager in name only. It's an open secret that Vrabel's the one in charge. He'll be making roster decisions. He'll be making hiring decisions. And he'll be the one to steer the Titans back to the top after the seemingly-disastrous swings of 2024.
Chapter VI: 2025
Vrabel only has one choice: It's time to bet on Maye. He's not a rookie anymore, and the trust between him and his coach starts to solidify.
Stabilizing measures are necessary. Cook gets a new contract. So too does Byard, one of the last holdovers from the beginning of the Vrabel era. The Titans sign Joe Flacco as a mentor to Maye and bring back Arthur Smith (who got a fourth year in Atlanta as a product of the Tannehill trade, but no more) as a senior offensive assistant.
St. Brown is a star, but Maye needs more firepower. Using money freed up by releasing Landry, the Titans sign veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins and free agent center Ryan Kelly. Baun gets rewarded with a second contract but Bolton bolts, so the Titans bring in veteran Shaq Thompson to supplement the linebacker room.
The focus on surrounding Maye with ample weaponry continues into the draft. The Titans use their first-round pick on Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka and their second-round pick on Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr. In the third round, the Titans gift the defense an extra playmaker: Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts .
So, the 2025 season starts. Everyone's on edge for the make-or-break year.
From the season's start, it's clear Vrabel's served up something magic. Cook's one of the best backs in the NFL. St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL. The pass rush generated by Simmons, Madubuike, Van Ginkel, Tuipulotu and Young is unmatched. The secondary is enabled to play aggressively and cashes in by leading the league in interceptions. Ebguka, Fannin and Watts are immediate contributors as rookies.
The headline, of course, is Maye's emergence as an MVP-caliber quarterback. The Titans re-seize the AFC South crown. Maye has an argument for being the NFL's best offensive player, and Simmons has a claim to being the NFL's best defensive player.
These Titans cruise through the regular season with 13 wins.
And at the center of it all is Vrabel. He's the unquestioned leader, the culture-setter, the face of the franchise.
Now he's coaching a team that cruised through the playoffs with wins over Justin Herbert 's Chargers , Bo Nix 's Broncos and Josh Allen's Bills into Super Bowl 60. Now he's coaching a team that's favored to win Super Bowl 60 and coaching a team that's going to win Super Bowl 60.
Imagine the confetti. Imagine the celebration. Imagine the parade up and down Broadway, with Vrabel crushing beers off his forehead as Byard, Simmons and the stars who helped him finally get over the hump shower him with love and adulation. It's all here. It all happened.
The Titans are Super Bowl champions. Mike Vrabel's Titans are Super Bowl champions. It's all real. It's all really real.
Oh. Wait.
Deep breath. Back to reality.
Epilogue
There's absolutely no doubt retaining Vrabel would've made winning easier in 2024 and 2025. Vrabel wouldn't have let the Titans go 3-14. No way. A Mike Vrabel coached team is more competitive, more game-ready and more culturally aligned than the product the Titans built without him.
But go through this again, starting on the day Vrabel was fired. Imagine a world where Vrabel sticks around with Will Levis heading into Year 2 at quarterback, Henry flirting with free agency, no receivers, no offensive tackles, no pass rushers, no cornerbacks, no linebackers and a general manager he never jelled with. Does Vrabel overcome all that to keep his job for another two years? Another year?
Or imagine a world where you reimagine history starting with the Brown trade. So you hold onto your star receiver. Now Tannehill's aging. Todd Downing's still calling plays. The O-line is still careening toward disaster. So is pretty much the entire defense. How does that team stave off the impending nosedive? What's the plan at quarterback? What's the plan on staff? How do you fix all your holes while still competing for divisional titles?
Best-case scenario, the Titans stink for a few years, but trust Vrabel to stick around and lead the team once the roster's rebuilt. Best-case scenario, the Titans are below average for a couple years and bounce back. But even then, if Vrabel's never going to coach a team that goes 3-14, and the roster is so thin that there are virtually no trade assets, it's hard to foresee a world where the Titans are ever in position to draft the franchise-changing quarterback that's usually a prerequisite to winning the Super Bowl.
So maybe the whole point of all of this is simple:
Give Vrabel a strong, trusting owner and a collaborative front office and productive, bought-in players and development-minded assistants and he easily could've guided Tennessee to a Super Bowl.
Give the Titans just Vrabel?
Keep dreaming.
Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com . Follow Nick on X @nicksuss . Subscribe to the Talkin' Titans newsletter for updates sent directly to your inbox.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Titans: How Mike Vrabel could have won a Super Bowl
