It's been quite the year for the Iowa State Cyclones.
After a long offseason where the team lost nearly its entire roster, Iowa State made a risky hire in Jimmy Rogers. Many people weren't sure it was the right hire. But clearly it's been the right decision.
The Cyclones are currently 4-4, getting wins over the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks, the Bowling Green Falcons, the West Virginia Mountaineers , and most recently, the Oklahoma State Cowboys .
Their four losses have all come to ranked opponents: the Iowa Hawkeyes, the Utah Utes, the BYU Cougars, and the Arizona Wildcats. Many believe Iowa State is the best 4-4 team in the country, considering they have a top-25 win and all four losses have been to ranked teams.
Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers reacts on the sideline during the first quarter against Oklahoma State on Oct. 31, 2026, at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune, USA TODAY Network) | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
With four games left, the Cyclones are just two wins away from reaching a bowl game. But are they actually likely to do so?
Iowa State begins by going on the road to take on the Baylor Bears next Saturday. While Baylor didn't have a great start to the season, they have had a great last few weeks, truly unlocking quarterback DJ Lagway, and the Bears should be able to come away with a win at home. They currently have an 81.2% chance of winning per ESPN analytics.
But then the Cyclones come home to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats, a game that feels like a winnable one for Iowa State. Cincinnati has looked solid some weeks, but has also looked bad in others. As of now, it's a true 50/50 game according to ESPN, which has the Bearcats winning 50.3% of the time.
Iowa State then goes on the road to take on the UCF Knights . UCF is extremely tough to understand, as they beat the then No. 2 BYU Cougars two weeks ago, but followed up with a 32-point loss to Baylor. Right now, ESPN has the Knights at a 61.9% chance to win the game.
Finally, the Cyclones play the Kansas State Wildcats at home to end the season. Kansas State has had a tough last few weeks after a great start to the season, and they are currently sitting at just 4-4. Right now, the game looks like another true 50/50 game, with ESPN slightly favoring the Wildcats, giving them a 51.5% chance to win.
All four games are certainly winnable, and three feel like games that Iowa State could even have the edge in when the week comes.
For where the Cyclones came into the season, a bowl game would be an extreme accomplishment, and it feels like Iowa State is on its way to making it happen.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/iowa-state as Iowa State Football Playing Its Way to a Bowl Game This Season .
