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Islanders’ Numbers Show Just How Valuable Adam Pelech Really Is
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- Islanders’ Numbers Show Just How Valuable Adam Pelech Really Is
With Matthew Schaefer 's emergence as one of the NHL's best defensemen, along with multiple other young talents in Marshall Warren and Isaiah George pushing for NHL roster spots, the New York Islanders appear to be overcrowded on the left side of their blue line.
With Alexander Romanov sidelined since mid-November, the issue was overlooked, but with him expected to be healthy for the start of the 2026-27 season, that depth will become a key area to address this offseason.
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One common name that has surfaced as a potential trade chip is Adam Pelech .
Pelech, who just played all 82 games of an NHL season for the first time in his career, turns 32 in August. However, his value may be close to an all-time high, leading some to view him as the odd man out.
Pelech's value, combined with the full no-trade clauses assigned to Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield through July 1, 2027, could leave him on the outside looking in. Still, trading Pelech would certainly weaken an already shaky Islanders defense.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Islanders conceded the third-highest expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5 this season (2.93), ahead of only the Chicago Blackhawks (3.02) and Vancouver Canucks (2.94), the two worst teams in the league by the standings as well.
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In terms of high-danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes, the Islanders again ranked third-worst at 13.03, ahead of only Chicago (13.66) and Vancouver (13.09).
However, with Pelech on the ice, the Islanders conceded 2.6 expected goals against and 11.72 high-danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes at 5v5. Compared to team-wide numbers, those rates would have ranked 12th-best in expected goals against and 20th-best in high-danger chances against, a significant difference.
Looking at the Islanders' numbers in those same categories without Pelech on the ice, they ranked dead last in both metrics by a significant margin.
It is not as if Pelech played sheltered minutes, either. He averaged 20:53 of ice time per game, the second-highest mark on the team behind Schaefer (24:41), and was often tasked with opponent's top threats.
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And, for the record, with both Pelech and Schaefer off the ice at 5v5, the Islanders conceded 3.38 expected goals against and 14.57 high-danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes.
The gap between that 3.38 expected goals against rate and the league-worst Blackhawks (3.02) is the same as the gap between Chicago and the New Jersey Devils (2.66), who ranked 15th-best in the league, better than the league median.
Defense was one of the Islanders' biggest weaknesses this season, and they were consistently bailed out by Ilya Sorokin 's Vezina-caliber season. They cannot count on that happening again moving forward.
It is also important to note that Pelech's presence was especially noticeable alongside his defensive partners.
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Pelech played more than 100 minutes with four different partners last season: Schaefer, Pulock, Mayfield, and Tony DeAngelo . Here are each player's splits with and without Pelech:
Every defenseman posted a sub-50 percent expected goals share and was on the ice for a significantly higher expected goals against rate per 60 minutes without Pelech.
The only defenseman to allow a lower rate of high-danger shot attempts without him was Schaefer.
It should also be noted that the team-leading defense pair in terms of 5v5 xG% without Pelech or Schaefer (min. 100 minutes TOI) was Mayfield-Adam Boqvist, which logged a 46.2 xG%, according to MoneyPuck.
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Pelech's value to the team cannot be understated, not only due to his impact but also the reality that Schaefer is human, and he should not be single-handedly forced to carry the weight of the defense.
In sports, nobody is ever truly untouchable, and the Islanders should not necessarily shut down trade talks involving just about anyone. There are certainly trades out there that make sense for the team.
But if Pelech is shopped, his defensive presence must be replaced, and it will not be as simple as swapping his impact for Romanov.
