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The Jacksonville State Gamecocks take on the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces, New Mexico, on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Jacksonville State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. New Mexico State, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +132 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here's my Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State predictionand college football pick for Wednesday, October 28.
Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State Pick: New Mexico State Team Total Under 23.5
My New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State best bet is on the Aggies to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State Spread: Jacksonville State -3.5, New Mexico State +3.5
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State Over/Under: 50.5 Total Points
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State Moneyline: Jacksonville State ML -160, New Mexico State ML +132
Losing the nation's leading rusher and four starting offensive linemen has ramifications for a Conference USA team.
Without Cam Cook, Jacksonville State's offense has taken a serious downturn. Last year's team finished 26th in EPA Per Rush, but this year's team is down all the way to 118th.
The concern this preseason was that, in the absence of Cook, quarterback Caden Creel would shoulder too much of the offensive load to the detriment of the offense.
Creel has 106 rushing attempts on the year (68 designed), behind only six quarterbacks nationally and only three that don't play in a triple option offense.
Fold in his 192 pass attempts, and only West Virginia's Michael Hawkins Jr. has more scrimmage attempts than Creel.
The result is an offense that ranks 23rd in Success Rate but only 66th in touchdown rate and 58th in Points Per Drive. There are too many turnovers (albeit, Creel hasn't been a turnover machine), and late-down conversions haven't been terrific.
On the flip side, the defense has been inconsistent.
Against Kennesaw, Jax State allowed five drives of 50-plus yards (four scoring); FIU managed four 50-plus yard drives, three 70-plus yard drives, and all scoring.
But those teams also went three-and-out eight times.
Sustained drives against Jax State almost always result in an opportunity for points (two missed field goals in those two games!), though the Gamecocks are good at getting after opponents early in drives and getting off the field.
This team has lived in close games this year. Of its seven games, four have finished within a score, including two of its first three in league play.
With upcoming games against New Mexico State (away), Western Kentucky (away) and Delaware (away), Jax State's margin for error is razor-thin.
Talk about the beneficiaries of good luck.
New Mexico State scored 30 points last week against a salty Sam Houston defense, 21 of which came on drives of five total plays and 71 total yards.
If you had any sort of under position in that game, you were subjugated to the most ridiculous brand of football.
This drive chart is one for the ages.
Aside from one total defensive breakdown (WKU), New Mexico State has been devoid of scoring points or sustaining drives.
Only 21.5% of Aggie offensive possessions end in a touchdown despite playing a modest set of opponents. Against its toughest opponents in FIU and New Mexico, NMSU was held to six non-garbage time points.
Adam Damante is certainly an upgrade from Trey Hedden, but both are weighed down by a puzzling set of plays drawn up by offensive coordinator David Yost.
Transfer running back James Jones has three games of more than 15 carries this year, and in all three, he went for over 130 yards. He forces a missed tackle on more than 30% of his carries and more than one in every six carries goes for 10-plus yards.
But he's not being used nearly enough.
Yost opts to throw the ball on 53% of offensive snaps, just outside the top 25 nationally. That goes beyond trailing much of the season — that's just poor play selection given personnel.
Though an upgrade over Hedden, Damante ranks 162nd out of 166 qualifying quarterbacks (min. 50 non-garbage time dropbacks) in EPA Per Play.
The formula is beyond predictable: run, run, pass. Lead, trail or tie, that has been the formula.
Yost will also watch Jones break off for a big run, then kill drive momentum with a pass the following play.
There's a clear buy line for Wednesday night. Jacksonville State -2.5 and New Mexico State +3.5 have been short-lived popular bets, moving as soon as they appear. The total was also bet up from 48.5 to 49.5, where it lay dormant most of the week.
If we were able to assume sound play-calling and coaching, New Mexico State would make an intriguing side this week.
Conference USA teams on the road during midweek play (Tuesday-Thursday) have gone 3-10-1 ATS since Week 5, though teams went 2-2 last week.
But we've seen enough Yost this year to know it's foolish to assume sound coaching.
Jax State's defense has survived on two things: early-down success and keeping explosive plays to a minimum. That's where it matches up well against NMSU, which looks to Jones early in drives and abandons him late.
Jax State is poor on late downs, but late downs are where Yost puts the ball into Damante's hands most.
The Aggies defense has played well, allowing a touchdown on just 22% of opposing drives (45th), but it's not a defense quick to force punts (22.1% three-and-out rate forced, 86th).
Expect Jacksonville State to sustain some offensive drives here and drain the clock, while New Mexico State's offense continues to struggle at home.
NMSU's 30 points last week were flukey, set up largely by short fields. Otherwise, this has been a dead-nut team total under team.
