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The JMU Dukes take on the App State Mountaineers in Boone, North Carolina, on Thursday, Oct. 22. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
JMU is favored by -12 points on the spread with a moneyline of -475. App State, meanwhile, enters as a +12 underdog and is +360 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
Here's my JMU vs. App State predictionand college football pick for Thursday, October 22.
JMU vs. App State Pick: Over 56.5 (Play to 57.5)
My App State vs. JMU best betis on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
JMU vs App State Spread: JMU -12.5, App State +12.5
JMU vs App State Over/Under: 56.5 Total Points
JMU vs App State Moneyline: JMU ML -470, App State ML +360
James Madison is the only 7-0 team through seven weeks of the college football season, as Billy Napier didn't miss a beat in spite of a mass player exodus.
JMU survived a scare at Georgia Southern (an under-the-radar tricky place to play), but its other one-score win against Liberty ended with an 89% postgame win expectancy.
Quarterback Camden Coleman lost the camp battle but has been thrust into an important role as starter JC Evans has missed most of the season to injury. Coleman is one of just 10 quarterbacks to throw at least 13 touchdown passes and only one interception on the year.
But it's been George Pettaway who's set the offensive tone, rushing for over 750 yards at nearly eight yards per carry. His production has gone up recently, too — Pettaway ran loose for over 200 yards on Marshall and 586 of those yards have come in the last four games.
Behind a rock-solid offensive line, expect Pettaway to continue being the centerpiece of Cam Aiken's offense.
Defensively, there are some cracks. The JMU defensive line has been pushed around against a subpar cast of opponents, though an elite second level has kept it inside the top 30 in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
Keep an eye on safety Jayon Harvey, who left Week 7's win over Georgia State early.
The quality of opponents has been inconsistent — JMU faced two offenses outside the top 130 (including FCS bottom-dweller Wagner), but also matched up against an elite per-drive offense in Liberty and two others inside the top 50.
JMU remains a heavy favorite in the Sun Belt and the second-most likely non-power team to make the College Football Playoff behind Boise State .
Talk about operating on thin margins: Appalachian State sits at 4-2 with three one-score wins over East Carolina , Charlotte and Coastal Carolina . Two of those wins featured postgame win expectancies of 42% (Coastal) and 25% (East Carolina).
It lost in a rain and wind storm against Old Dominion in a 10-3 stinker, a game we can reasonably expect App State to win in typical conditions at home.
Malachi Singleton has popped up on the injury report each of the last two weeks. He battled it out and played in Week 6 and 7, but he exited the latter early. He's considered questionable for Thursday's game.
Outside of an injury — and that nor'easter-driven wind storm — Singleton has been really solid. He's as good a passer as you'll find in college football in the intermediate range (10-19 yards), meaning he's doing a great deal and isn't just a product of scheme.
Henry Hasselbeck presents a much different skill set, and he rushed for 125 yards on Coastal in the 35-32 win. Jaquari Lewis ran for 85 yards but contributed four rushing touchdowns.
All of this comes in spite of a rotating cast of offensive linemen, many of whom aren't very good to begin with.
This year, the defense has really improved. Last year, the Mountaineers fell outside the top 100 in points per drive allowed, but in Year 2 (and with a brand new cast of players), coordinator DJ Smith has improved that to 55th.
(However, that number may take a hit as App State takes on JMU, Georgia State and South Alabama upcoming.)
Early downs remain a struggle, setting teams up with manageable third downs, and the secondary still needs some work.
Both teams enter this game on short rest. App State last played Friday against rival Coastal Carolina in Conway; JMU last played at home Saturday against Georgia State (which came off a bye) and hits the road, giving it an exceptionally short week to work on.
The rest disadvantage continues — JMU doesn't have its season bye week until Week 12 (Nov. 21) and plays six road games in eight consecutive weeks.
The first thing to go during stretches of attrition is the defense.
Appalachian State's defense is going to meet its match. Though improved, App State's season-long metrics have been propped up by playing some bottom-rung offenses (Charlotte, ECU) and in impossible conditions (ODU).
JMU runs the cleanest operation of any opponent yet and operates where App State is deficient, against the run game.
This total hasn't moved very much and sits in a nebulous zone between key numbers 55 and 58. With fine weather conditions inbound, anticipate favorable conditions for offenses to operate.
Action PRO recorded five sharp moves to the over on this game throughout the week, and we're still getting the best number.
Despite improvements on defense from App State, JMU should cover much of this number against a defense that ranks 101st in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Play to 57.5)
