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If Josh Heupel does this for first time, Tennessee football will make the CFP
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- If Josh Heupel does this for first time, Tennessee football will make the CFP
Tennessee football likely must go undefeated in November, which it's never done under coach Josh Heupel, to make the College Football Playoff.
Two opponents vying for playoff spots, a challenging road trip and a rivalry game stand in its way. Roster attrition also will come into play in the first nine-game conference schedule in SEC history.
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The good news is that Georgia , a perennial SEC title contender, isn't on the schedule. The Bulldogs beat UT in November four times under Heupel.
The bad news is that Kentucky , a historic November pushover for the Vols , is now a contender for the SEC title and a College Football Playoff bid.
"They are a complete football team," Heupel said on Nov. 2.
No. 16 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2 SEC) plays No. 7 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1) on Nov. 7 (6:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Neyland Stadium. The Wildcats are riding an SEC-best six-game winning streak, which UT must snap to clear a path to the playoff.
What are Tennessee's odds of making College Football Playoff?
Tennessee is ranked No. 13 in the first College Football Playoff poll , which was released on Nov. 3, as the second team outside the projected bracket. Kentucky ranked No. 6 in the CFP poll.
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The Vols likely need a 10-2 record to make the 12-team playoff. There's also a chance that 9-3 could be good enough, but even that possibility would require a win over Kentucky.
UT wraps up the regular season at Texas A&M (Nov. 14), at home against No. 15 LSU (Nov. 21) and at Vanderbilt (Nov. 28).
ESPN's playoff predictor gives Tennessee almost a 100% chance of making the playoff at 10-2. It drops to 32% with a loss to Kentucky and a 9-3 record.
Tennessee and LSU are among the top teams vying for a playoff spot if they can get hot in November. They play in two weeks at Neyland Stadium, but the Vols can't afford to look ahead.
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"If you get caught up in things that don't matter – rankings coming out or whatever it might be – you have no chance to go finish and play the way that you need to every single week," Heupel said. "We've got one opponent this week. It's Kentucky."
Josh Heupel record in November vs. Johnny Majors, Phillip Fulmer
Heupel has a 13-8 record at UT in November. It's a good mark but also his worst month in the regular season. His UT teams are 2-0 in August, 19-5 in September and 15-6 in October.
Notably, Heupel's best November win was his first at UT, when the Vols beat No. 18 Kentucky on Nov. 6, 2021.Heupel owns one undefeated November in his head coaching career. In 2018, his UCF team went 4-0 in November, including a win over No. 24 Cincinnati, en route to a 12-1 season.
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It'll take Heupel's best November for the Vols to reach the playoff.
Longtime UT fans recall that Johnny Majors and Phillip Fulmer fueled their successful coaching careers with November winning streaks. Fulmer had nine undefeated Novembers in 16 seasons. Majors had seven undefeated Novembers in 16 seasons.
Derek Dooley (2010), Butch Jones (2015) and Jeremy Pruitt (2019) did it once each.
Late-season surges under Majors and Fulmer were a mark of a championship level program. But they often came against manageable schedules.
In the 1980s, the Vols usually played struggling Ole Miss, Kentucky and Vanderbilt teams and an inferior nonconference opponent. In the 1990s, it got a little harder with Arkansas supplanting Ole Miss on the schedule and Notre Dame making a few appearances as a nonconference opponent.
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But those UT teams rarely had to beat multiple Top 25 teams in November to reach a coveted postseason game.
In Majors' seven undefeated Novembers, he beat only two ranked opponents (No. 20 Ole Miss in 1986; No. 5 Notre Dame in 1991) in the final month of the season. In Fulmer's nine undefeated Novembers, he beat four ranked opponents during that month (No. 13 Louisville in 1993; No. 24 Southern Miss in 1997; No. 10 Arkansas in 1998; No. 6 Miami in 2003).
This Tennessee team must beat No. 7 Kentucky and No. 15 LSU.
"(We're) excited for November," Heupel said. "It's the best part of the year, playing meaningful football."
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Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com . X, formerly known as Twitter @AdamSparks . Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe .
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: If Josh Heupel does this for first time, Tennessee football will make the CFP
