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The Kent State Golden Flashes take on the Sacramento State Hornets in Sacramento, California, on Friday, Oct. 30. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Kent State is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. Sacramento State, meanwhile, enters as a +7.5 underdog and is +240 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 total points.
Here's my Kent State vs. Sacramento State predictionand college football pick for Friday, October 30.
Kent State vs. Sacramento State Pick: Over 46.5 (Play to 47.5)
My Sacramento State vs. Kent State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Kent State vs Sacramento State Spread: Kent State -7.5, Sacramento State +7.5
Kent State vs Sacramento State Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Kent State vs Sacramento State Moneyline: Kent State ML -285, Sacramento State ML +230
Kent State has a real opportunity. At 3-5, it needs three more wins to become bowl-eligible and must do so in its final four games.
While seemingly unlikely, Kent plays Sacramento State (138th in consensus power rating), Bowling Green (130th), Miami (significant regression after QB David McComb went down, also 100th) and Eastern Michigan (125th and declining).
Three of these games come on the road, making this a real uphill battle, but the door's been left open to snap Kent's five-season bowl drought.
Quarterback Dru DeShields' emergence last year was a lot of fun because it was unexpected. But DeShields is now expected, and his production has been pretty bad.
Though there's not a ton of help around him, the junior has eight touchdowns against six interceptions and a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt. He hasn't completed 60% of his passes since Week 4, and that's not due to drops of throwaways — DeShields just isn't overly accurate.
A name to watch is receiver Wayne Harris. From Weeks 1-5, he managed just 123 receiving yards against FBS foes (a 63-yard touchdown against Wofford inflated that game total with two catches for 73 yards) on 13 receptions.
And then in Week 6 alone, he doubled his production with 11 catches for 164 yards. In two of his last three outings, Wayne went for over 150, and DeShields is looking to him more.
With vulnerable defenses on the doorstep, expect Wayne to be the engine on offense (he has accounted for 62% of DeShields' yards in those two games).
The defense is capable, as well, though nothing that'll shut the world down. Kent's defense put it in a position to win against Ohio (falling 13-10) and USF for a while (10-2 at half).
Teams have moved the ball consistently and easily with chunk passing plays, but the Flashes have kept a lid on downfield explosives. Bend, don't break.
Sacramento State belongs in the same conversation we had about last year's UMass team. It doesn't have an FBS roster, and that shows with weekly blowouts at the hands of less-than-juggernauts like Ball State and Bowling Green.
Jackson Sharman has done the best he can, having been thrust into the starting role when Carson Conklin was hurt in Week 0.
But there's no help up front. This is by far the worst offensive line in football, allowing a sack on 10.5% of dropbacks over its last three games — or out wide, but he also doesn't help himself (12 batted balls are the most in college football).
Freshman running back Isaiah Ene is sufficiently physical, but when 4.3 of his 5.3 yards per carry have to come after contact, you know something's wrong.
But as bad as the offense is, the defense is worse and continues to worsen. Sac State allowed new season highs in each of its last three games to Bowling Green (38), Ohio (48),and Ball State (34, could have been 48).
There's a lack of communication on defense, leading to breakdowns in coverage, zero pass rush despite some good size up front, and nobody athletic enough to make up for it in the second level.
The defensive stops that do occur are few and far between, and largely rely on mistakes made by the offense like a penalty, turnover or breakdown in blocking leading to a tackle for loss.
Head coach Alonzo Carter made switches to play-callers on both offense and defense the last two games, though both coordinators are still listed as such.
Sac State appeared more competent offensively against Ball State, meaning that change to QB coach Bobby Fresques could be for the better.
Defense remains unchanged with its usual number of busted assignments despite the cornerbacks coach getting a midseason axe.
This game is all sorts of gross situationally for Kent State.
For starters, it's a 10:30 p.m. local kick for the Flashes, who take their first cross-country trip since Washington in 2022.
It's also a short week for both teams, each having played on Saturday — but preparing for a new road trip is more difficult than returning home.
It's also Kent's third road game in four weeks. This game comes off the back of Kent's Wagon Wheel rivalry with Akron, a game it won handily, setting up a nice letdown spot heading into midweek MACtion.
Travel fatigue is also a real possibility for Sac State, which has traveled to the Eastern Time Zone twice in the last three weeks with home stops in between.
While it's not the worst spot we'll see a MAC team deal with in Sacramento this year, it's certainly not a great place to lay double digits with the Flashes.
Instead, I'm looking to more broadly fade the defenses involved here.
Sac State's continues to get worse, giving up 40 points per game throughout October despite playing some really bad offenses (Bowling Green, Ohio, Ball State).
Kent State has found more explosive success of late, and I expect it'll continue to find explosive plays here Friday night.
If there's a defensive front Sac State isn't completely overwhelmed by, it's the one it faces this week. There should be enough points to get us a modest total here, and Kent should account for a good portion of it.
Pick: Over 46.5 (Play to 47.5)
