Story by
Keys to victory for the Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
- Story by
- Keys to victory for the Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio Stadium will be painted Scarlet red when the No. 23 Oregon Ducks arrive in Columbus to take on the No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes . Playoff and Big Ten hopes are on the line for the new conference rivals, yet the Ducks are sizable underdogs heading into the matchup.
The Ducks are fresh off a thrilling win over Northwestern at home, which saw the offense thrive with aggressive calls from Jay Johnson in the booth, while the defense overcame a slow start and won physically in the fourth quarter. Ohio State, meanwhile, couldn't piece together enough offense in its first start with a freshman backup quarterback, and the defense was shockingly pushed around in a road loss to USC.
Advertisement
Oregon found a way to win as underdogs in their most recent trip to Columbus, back in 2021 , and although the calendar has flipped to November and the stakes are heightened, the Ducks enter in familiar territory. But with a win, Oregon's slim playoff and Big Ten title hopes could suddenly creep back into the land of possibility . However, it all starts with a win over the stout Buckeyes' defense and roster filled with blue-chip talent.
Ohio State has not lost back-to-back regular season games under Ryan Day, and has not done so since 2004. Tackling the Buckeyes on the road, with their backs against the wall, no less, is a tall task. Dan Lanning and the Ducks have some momentum, and could be getting a key part of their offense back for this game. This was the game Oregon had circled on the calendar in the preseason, and despite all the unexpected turns during the season, it's still a highly valuable game for the program, and one that Oregon has a very real path to win.
Let's take a look at three keys to help Oregon pull off the road upset and knock off Ohio State in Columbus.
Let Raiola Build
Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola warms up as the Oregon Ducks host the Northwestern Wildcats on Oct. 31, 2026, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.
It would be nice to see the Ducks start fast on offense, but that hasn't been the case often this season, so I wouldn't bet on it against a strong Ohio State defense. Still, I think there is an opportunity for Dylan Raiola to play clean in this game. The Buckeyes don't have a tremendous pass rush, and they haven't snagged many interceptions this season, so there is a chance for Raiola to avoid negative plays.
Advertisement
Lanning said after the win against Northwestern that Raiola feeds off his own confidence, but that can also go the other way. He didn't turn the ball over against the Wildcats, despite nearly losing an early fumble, and since he avoided those mistakes, he was more confident throwing downfield later in the game. Against UCLA, he committed one turnover, then his next throw was way off the mark, and then another turnover, and so forth.
Raiola can't let the snowball gain steam in this game, because Ohio State's defense is going to make a play or two. The Buckeyes are too good not to do so. But, even with the return of Jay Timmons in the nickel this week for Ohio State, there is a blueprint for big plays downfield against this defense, and it can come from play-action and taking what they give you underneath.
If Raiola can avoid having two turnovers in this game, Oregon has a chance to win. But it all depends on how he starts and if he can find early success to thrive in the second half. More than ever, Raiola's play will determine if Oregon has any shot to pull off the upset in Columbus.
Capitalize on Buckeyes' Weak Point
Oct 31, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks linebacker Teitum Tuioti (44) celebrates breaking up a pass play during the second half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Ohio State's offensive line was under siege last week against USC, and the Buckeyes are dealing with a significant injury up front. Left tackle Ian Moore is listed on the availability report as questionable, although Day did say on Thursday that he believes Moore will be ready to play on Saturday. How much remains to be seen, but regardless, he won't be at full strength against Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei , who have been rolling lately.
Advertisement
Moore's backup, Austin Siereveld, and right tackle Phillip Daniels were the lowest-graded offensive linemen against USC, per PFF, and the Ducks could expose those matchups. Luke Fahey can run a little bit, but he isn't the dynamic running threat that Aidan Chiles posed a week ago. Oregon can cage Fahey in and force him into mistakes if he doesn't get the ball out fast enough.
The Buckeyes did rush for 200 yards last week and can be physical between the tackles, but Bear Alexander and A'Mauri Washington haven't offered many running lanes up the middle this season. If the Ducks can crash on the edges and have safeties and linebacker clean up in the backfield, the Ducks can force Fahey to drop back on later downs or in the second half, and then the Oregon pass rush can really tee off.
Contain Jeremiah Smith, But Don't Forget ...
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) reacts during the NCAA football game against USC Trojans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Oct. 31, 2026.
Jeremiah Smith is the best player on the field in this game. He burned the Ducks twice as a freshman, once in Eugene and again in the Rose Bowl later that season en route to a national championship. The odds are that Smith is going to hurt them again this week, despite Oregon's defense playing well and a freshman quarterback throwing the ball. The 6-foot-4 receiver and Heisman frontrunner is sort of inevitable.
Advertisement
That doesn't mean the Ducks can't limit him. Oregon doesn't often have a corner shadow a receiver, but this might be the game where Brandon Finney Jr. can step out of the nickel and tackle the tall task. He is Oregon's best cover corner in man coverage, and with Koi Perich or another safety bracketing Smith over the top, the Ducks could at least limit the explosive plays.
In his first game with Fahey throwing him the ball, Smith caught 10 passes, but for just 83 yards and a late touchdown. The Buckeyes tried to make things easier on Fahey and give him lots of throws to Smith behind or near the line of scrimmage, hoping to set up blocks in front of him. But that sort of start-and-go offense only allowed the defense time to rally up and drop Smith for a loss or a short gain. Sound familiar? That's very similar to how Drew Mehringer called plays for Dakorien Moore for much of the season.
Ohio State offensive coordinator Arthur Smith could open it up again this week against an Oregon defense that has been beaten by top wideouts this season, but no matter how Oregon chooses to defend Smith, the Ducks do need to keep Devin McCuin and Chris Henry Jr. in mind. They haven't seen nearly as many targets as Smith, but if the Ducks devote too many defenders to Smith, there is probably another receiver open.
Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes and opinion s.
This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Keys to victory for the Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
