EUGENE - The Oregon Ducks debuted at No. 23 in the first College Football Playoff rankings with three losses, and ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit is saying the quiet part out loud. A week after people were writing off Oregon's season, the Ducks are still in the mix.
A week ago, Oregon had parted ways with offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, and coach Dan Lanning said he didn't anticipate starting quarterback Dante Moore returning this season. The Twitter trolls were having a field day with the Ducks and Lanning as the overreactions rolled in. Then Oregon beat No. 20 Northwestern on Halloween, and the first CFP rankings left the door open.
Jan 1, 2025; Pasadena, California, USA; Lee Corso (center) wears a Buckeyes mascot head as Pat McAfee (left) and Kirk Herbstreit (right) watch at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect
"They find a way to beat a top 20 team in Northwestern. Now they got Ohio State on the road. I'm not saying they're going to win. I'm just saying if somehow, some way, they figure out a way to knock off Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington. I feel like there's a path," Herbstreit said.
The Ducks chances to get into the CFP currently hover around five percent. That percentage would jump with a win over No. 12 Ohio State at The Horseshoe in Columbus on Saturday . A victory at Ohio Stadium ( as the Buckeyes start freshman quarterback Luka Fahey for the second time ) would give Oregon its third victory over a team in the initial CFP rankings and its best win by the committee's rankings.
The first College Football Playoff rankings reveal that Oregon has two wins over teams the committee ranked. The Ducks beat No. 20 USC 41-27 on the road and No. 25 Boise State 34-27 at Autzen Stadium. Their only loss to a team in the committee's Top 25 was a 17-15 defeat to No. 8 UCLA.
Oct 31, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dylan Raiola (8) walks off the field after a game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Northwestern was No. 20 in the AP poll when Oregon beat the Wildcats on Halloween, but it landed outside the committee's first Top 25.
"I feel like there's a... a light at the end of the tunnel. Now they have to win these games, which is going to be very tough to do. But if they did and they finished at 9-3, they're not done. After seeing tonight's ranking, I feel like Oregon's in the mix still," Herbstreit said.
ESPN's Football Power Index is higher on the Ducks than the committee is. Oregon ranked No. 12 in the Week 10 FPI, and seven of its eight opponents ranked in the model's top 50. Portland State was the exception.
Still, Oregon's chance to make a third consecutive playoff berth hinges on it winning out. The Ducks' remaining games include Ohio State, the Michigan Wolverines, the Michigan State Spartans and the Washington Huskies.
Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola, left, talks with Oregon head coach Dan Lanning before the game as the Oregon Ducks host the Northwestern Wildcats on Oct. 31, 2026, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Have the Ducks finally found some rhythm on offense?
In analyst Jay Johnson's first game calling plays for Oregon, quarterback Dylan Raiola completed 22 of 31 passes for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern. It was his first 300-yard game as a Duck. His biggest play came in the fourth quarter, when he found receiver Dakorien Moore for a 75-yard touchdown after the Wildcats had cut Oregon's lead to one.
There was some continuity up front, too. For the first time all season, Oregon started the same five offensive linemen in back-to-back games. That familiarity could come in handy at the Horseshoe, where the Ducks will have to communicate through the crowd noise of more than 100,000 fans and against a defense allowing just 15.5 points per game.
Oregon wide receiver Dakorien Moore, left, outruns Northwestern defensive back Ore Adeyi after a catch for a touchdown as the Oregon Ducks host the Northwestern Wildcats on Oct. 31, 2026, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Oregon's defense did its part in the comeback, holding Northwestern to 1-for-8 on third down after halftime. The Ducks will need stops often and early in Columbus against an Ohio State team averaging 36.6 points per game.
Herbstreit sees a playoff path if Oregon wins its final four games. A Big Ten title would give the Ducks an automatic bid to the playoff, but first they'd need some help getting to Indianapolis.
One way it could happen is if UCLA wins out, handing Illinois and USC another conference loss. Oregon would also want USC to beat No. 4 Indiana on Nov. 14 before losing to UCLA in the regular-season finale.
If enough of the other teams with two Big Ten losses stumble, the Ducks could be in the mix for the second spot in Indianapolis at 7-2. A win at Ohio State would give Oregon the head-to-head edge in a two-team tie with the Buckeyes.
So while it is partly out of Oregon's hands... the Ducks have a chance to help themselves on Saturday vs. Ohio State
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/oregon as Kirk Herbstreit Says The Quiet Part Out Loud About Oregon And The Playoff .
