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The ‘Last Place Schedule’ Talker Isn’t Done for Vikings
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- The ‘Last Place Schedule’ Talker Isn’t Done for Vikings
Matt Krohn
When the Minnesota Vikings toppled the Detroit Lions on Christmas Day — rather unexpectedly — Kevin O'Connell's team crept into third place inside the NFC North, with Detroit sliding into last. The implication? Minnesota would have a tougher schedule in 2026 accordingly, and the Lions would reap the benefits of a cakewalk. While that is true for now, the verdict is not final on the last-place schedule talker.
Minnesota's path isn't locked: one more result can swing the 2026 slate, the tiebreaker math, and the quality of opponents, which is why the schedule talk won't die yet.
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The Vikings still play the Green Bay Packers next weekend, and the Lions finish against the Chicago Bears . There's a world where Minnesota indeed claims a last-place schedule and better draft pick.
Why the 2026 Schedule Conversation Still Matters
The last-place schedule is true for now, but not written in stone.
Vikings kicker Will Reichard connects on a field goal with Ryan Wright holding during the first half on Nov. 23, 2025, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The kick added early points as Minnesota faced the Packers in a cold divisional road matchup under prime-time conditions with playoff implications lingering late in the season. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-Imagn Images
Vikings Can Still Lose to the Packers
Because Minnesota slipped into third place on Christmas, there's a sentiment that it won't face a last-place schedule next year. That is close to being true, but it's not all the way true, at least not yet.
Next weekend, with the Packers perhaps playing for playoff seeding, Minnesota hosts its foremost rival at U.S. Bank Stadium. Jordan Love didn't play in Week 17, but Malik Willis filled in, and he's considered an upper-echelon backup quarterback these days.
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For now, with quarterback uncertainty on both sides, Green Bay is expected to prevail by a point or two in Week 18, according to oddsmakers. A Vikings loss would thicken the plot of the 2026 last-place schedule matter.
The Lions Can Still Beat the Bears
Then, the Lions will hope to finish the season strong at Chicago. The Bears and Packers have clinched playoff spots, but it is unclear which teams will play starters to close out the season. Detroit may even yank its superstars to avoid injuries.
Still, when sizing up the Lions at the Bears, it's not unfathomable to predict a Lions victory, especially with a team led by Dan Campbell that doesn't really take its foot off the gas.
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A loss by the Vikings and a win by the Lions next weekend would flip the 2026 schedule outlook back to its previous form.
Detroit Lions cornerback Terrion Arnold breaks up a fourth-quarter pass intended for Justin Jefferson during the Nov. 2, 2025, game at Ford Field in Detroit. The coverage play halted Minnesota's drive late as the Lions protected a narrow home advantage in a tense divisional matchup that swung momentum toward Detroit down the stretch of the contest. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images
Bleacher Report 's Wes O'Donnell picked the 49ers to take down the Bears this week: "Let's be clear, I think the 49ers will win this game. With massive NFC No. 1 seed implications on the line, Kyle Shanahan has his team believing they can overcome just about anything. The Bears believe, too. There's a magic to Caleb Williams , Ben Johnson and the feisty Chicago defense that I cannot deny despite my constant reservations about their success this season."
"The game will be close, probably with the Bears getting the ball back with the game on the line after a San Francisco score puts them up by two. And that is when Caleb Williams will throw a fateful interception, setting the stage for Seattle vs. San Francisco in Week 18, all the while giving Chicago the cover, nonetheless."
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Week 16 Standings Would Be Restored
Heading into Week 17 , the Vikings lived in last place, and the Lions had sunk to third place after a disappointing season. While the pecking order changed in the NFC because of Minnesota's 23-10 Yuletide triumph, the aforementioned Packers win in Week 18 and Bears loss on the same day would restore the standings to the Week 16 form.
For weeks, when the Vikings' season bottomed out at 4-8, fans just assumed, "Well, at least they will get a last-place schedule." That's now in serious jeopardy, but the outcome is not final.
The Difference in Opponents
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A third-place menu would pit the Vikings against these teams next year:
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San Francisco 49ers — or Los Angeles Rams
And the fourth-place slate would look like this:
That's why people care about this situation. There's a noticeable drop-off in the caliber of opponents.
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff throws from the pocket against Green Bay during the second half on Dec. 5, 2024, at Ford Field in Detroit. Goff navigated pressure as the Lions leaned on the passing game to control tempo on Thursday night in a divisional meeting with postseason implications for both teams late in the season. Mandatory Credit: © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Pride of Detroit 's Jeremy Reisman noted on the Lions' stake in a last-place schedule, "The difference between a third and fourth place schedule is the difference between facing a legitimate 2025 Super Bowl contender vs. a Cardinals team that is still in contention for the No. 1 pick. In the AFC South, the difference between the Colts and Titans is massive, too."
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"Indianapolis is expected to bounce back in 2026 after the injury to Daniel Jones spoiled their extremely promising season. The difference is a little less pronounced in the NFC East, with both the Commanders and Giants floundering this year. However, the Giants will have an entirely new regime with head coach Brian Daboll already fired."
Three games will flip. A race to the bottom of sorts, currently "led" by Detroit.
