Despite only being in the job for a year, Paul Toboni has already made plenty of moves. He is an active GM who leaves no stone unturned when it comes to trying to make his team better. However, there is one trade I will discuss that has not aged well so far.
Back in Mid-December Paul Toboni made a rare prospect for prospect swap. He made a deal with his old boss Craig Breslow that sent LHP Jake Bennett to the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Luis Perales. It was a fascinating trade because of the one for one nature and the fact that Perales and Bennett are such different pitchers.
The Red Sox went after a polished lefty with great command in Bennett. Meanwhile, the Nats got a high upside flame-thrower in Perales. It was a classic case of stuff vs command. In year one, the command specialist easily won the day.
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While Perales was the more well-known name, Bennett was the one who burst on to the scene in 2026. Entering the year, it was difficult to see how Bennett could break into a crowded Red Sox rotation. However, things changed after Garrett Crochet went down and Bennett dominated in AAA.
Bennett was impressing Red Sox fans as early as Spring Training with improved velocity to go with his already elite execution. He did not make the team out of camp, but after a few starts in the minors, it was clear that the lefty was big league ready. Bennett posted
a 1.60 ERA in nine AAA starts.
Once injuries hit the Red Sox rotation, he was the next man up. When he arrived, Bennett made the most of his opportunity. In 113.1 innings, Bennett posted
a 3.65 ERA with 91 strikeouts to just 21 walks. He became a stabilizing force in the Red Sox rotation and played a key role in turning their season around.
In fact, Bennett was so good that the Red Sox were willing to trade the more highly touted Connelly Early for offensive help, ironically to the Nats. That 3.65 ERA was no mirage either. Bennett's FIP
was 3.51, his xERA was 3.42 and his xFIP was 3.81. He is tracking like a quality number 3 starter for years to come.
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Jake Bennett does not have electric stuff, but he makes up for it with phenomenal command and deception. Bennett only walked
4.6% of hitters and generated a 37.4% chase rate. Those are both extraordinary numbers. His fastball and changeup were absolute weapons this season.
It is worth noting that Bennett posted
a 4.66 ERA in his last 7 outings. However, his strikeout and walk numbers were actually better in that time. I think that 3.65 ERA number is pretty representative of his true talent. The lack of dominant stuff holds him back from being a top of the rotation guy, but Jake Bennett is rock solid.
In exchange for Bennett, the Nats got Luis Perales, who could not be any more different as a pitcher. While Bennett throws in the 92-94 MPH range, Luis Perales averages
99 on his heater. To go with that heater, Perales has a 93 MPH cutter and a nasty splitter that just falls off the table.
If you are just looking at pure stuff, Perales is world's better than Bennett. His fastball gets a lot of carry and his splitter drops a lot. However, there is more to pitching than just raw stuff and the Nats are learning that the hard way in this trade.
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Like Bennett, Luis Perales started the season in AAA. However, he did not have the same success early on. He really struggled with command out of the gates, and that became a trend. While things got better, and the ERA was not bad, there were some red flags in his profile.
Speaking of that ERA, if that was the only thing you looked at, his AAA season would seem pretty strong. He posted
a 3.64 ERA in Rochester over 96.1 innings. However, the underlying numbers told a different story. Perales had a FIP of 4.63, almost a full run higher than his ERA. His xERA was 4.12 and his xFIP was 4.86. Perales walked
over 13% of hitters in the minors this year.
While his strikeout numbers were good, they were not elite. A 23.5% K rate is not enough to make up for all those walks. The reason his ERA was so low is due to a .243 BABIP, which is very low. Perales was getting lucky in Rochester.
As the season finished, Perales was moved to the bullpen so he could get a shot in the big leagues. He actually looked good in that role in Rochester. Perales made three relief appearances in the minors and dominated. In 6 innings, Perales allowed
0 runs, struck out 12 and only walked two batters. That relief role seemed like a great fit for him.
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However, things took a turn for the worst once he reached the majors. In his first outing, Perales allowed a grand slam, and that really set the tone. Perales made 6 appearances and tossed 11 innings. In those outings, Perales allowed
14 runs, walked 13 hitters, gave up 15 hits and surrendered 5 homers. It was a complete disaster and Perales did not look big league ready in the slightest. Despite throwing over 100 fewer innings, Bennett walked just 8 more hitters than Perales.
There were some major problems that were easy to identify. The first one is just the command. So many of Perales' pitches are either uncompetitive misses or right down the middle. He just does not execute at an MLB level, especially with his fastball. In a lot of outings, Perales just had to abandon his triple digit heater because he can't command it.
Perales' best pitch is his splitter. When he actually finds a way to get ahead in the count, the pitch is filthy. It generated
whiffs at a 48.9% clip and batters hit just .063 on the pitch. However, his splitter is a chase pitch. Unless he is ahead in the count, hitters can just lay off the pitch.
The one pitch he can consistently throw in the zone is his cutter. Unfortunately, his cutter is the one pitch that just is not very impressive stuff wise. Hitters just teed off on his cutter and 4-seamer. Perales' pitch mix and command just does not work in the MLB right now.
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I still believe in the raw stuff and I think he has a chance to be a good reliever with further development. We will see how that development goes because there is a dark cloud looming. Right now, Perales is out of options meaning he will have to stick on the big league roster moving forward. However, there is a strong chance he could get an extra option year due to missing almost all of last season with Tommy John.
We better hope Perales gets that option year because he is not big league ready right now. It would be tough to carry a pitcher this raw on an MLB roster and it would also be a disaster if he were DFA'd.
On the season, Perales posted -0.5 fWAR while Bennett compiled 2.3 fWAR. So far this has been a story of command being more important than stuff. The funky lefty who knows how to pitch is way better than the flamethrowing righty with bad command.
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It is worth noting that this was Perales' first year back from Tommy John. As he gets further removed from the surgery, I hope he regains some sharpness. The stuff is all the way back, but the command still has a long way to go. Control had always been a question for Perales, but prior to the surgery he was headed in the right direction. This season has been a big step in the wrong direction though.
We will continue to go over some of Paul Toboni's moves as we get deeper into the offseason, but so far this looks like the worst one. Right now, Bennett looks like a mid rotation starter while Perales needs a lot to go right for him to even become an effective reliever.
There is a chance this trade looks better after another year, but so far this has been a big swing and a miss. Toboni's old boss seems to have got one over on him here. This trade gives us an important reminder that while stuff is very important, it is not everything. Pitchers still need to be able to execute and throw quality strikes. Jake Bennett is a master in that regard while Luis Perales is well below average. Let's hope Perales can figure it out moving forward because this is not looking good right now.
