November means MACtion, and Week 10 gives the Mid-American Conference five games spread across Tuesday and Wednesday night.
There are meaningful conference races involved, but the slate also has everything that makes midweek MAC football distinctive: a nearly four-touchdown favorite traveling across the country, a neutral-site rivalry game at Ford Field, a pair of teams fighting near the top of the standings, and a UMass team trying to get back on track with its starting quarterback healthy again.
PFN's Cam Mellor and Oliver Hodgkinson broke down all five matchups, using PFN's College Football Playoff Meter and Impact rankings alongside the individual matchups that could decide each game.
Note: Point spreads below reflect the numbers discussed when the video was recorded. Lines can move before kickoff.
Recorded spread:Ohio -12.5
Pick:Ohio -12.5
Ohio enters MACtion at 6-2 overall and unbeaten through four conference games. Akron sits at the opposite end of the standings at 1-7 and 0-4 in MAC play.
PFN's College Football Playoff Meter gave the Bobcats an 88.2% win probability at the time of recording, and Mellor and Hodgkinson both believe the 12.5-point spread undersells the gap between these teams.
The matchup starts with Ohio's rushing offense against an Akron defense that has struggled badly to stop the run. The Zips were allowing a MAC-worst 5.7 yards per carry, while Ohio entered the week averaging 4.88 yards per rushing attempt and leading the conference in rushing production.
Victor Rosa gives the Bobcats an experienced runner after transferring from UConn, while quarterback Nick Poulos adds another dimension. Poulos has been able to threaten defenses with his legs without putting the football in danger through the air, giving Ohio an offense that doesn't need to take unnecessary chances to move the chains.
That is a difficult formula for Akron to solve. The Zips' best offensive weapon is Jordan Gant, who is coming off 162 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Kent State, but Akron has struggled to create enough complementary production around him.
PFN's Impact metrics also showed the disparity. Ohio ranked 59th offensively and 86th defensively nationally at the time of the discussion, while Akron sat 116th on offense and 122nd on defense.
The Bobcats' defense has several young players worth watching beyond this matchup. Ike Ackerman has emerged on the defensive front, while Kendall Bannister gives the secondary another playmaker. Mellor's larger point was that Ohio has the type of young defensive talent Power Four programs are going to notice when the transfer portal opens.
Ohio is 6-0 as a favorite this season, while Akron has yet to win in seven games as an underdog. Upsets and strange results are part of MACtion, but neither analyst found enough on the Akron side to justify expecting one here.
The Bobcats should be able to dictate the game on the ground and prevent the Zips from doing enough offensively to keep pace.
Recorded spread:Miami (OH) -6.5
Pick:Miami (OH) to win, Buffalo +6.5
Buffalo and Miami enter Tuesday night at 5-3 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, making this the most consequential game on the first night of the Week 10 slate.
PFN's College Football Playoff Meter gave Miami a 72.0% chance to win, and both Mellor and Hodgkinson agreed the RedHawks are the stronger team. The question is whether they are strong enough to create a touchdown of separation.
Hodgkinson doesn't think they are.
Five of Miami's previous six games had been decided by fewer than four points entering the matchup. The RedHawks have repeatedly found themselves in close finishes, and their offense has changed significantly since losing starting quarterback David McComb for the season.
Caleb Heavner has taken over under center. He brings useful mobility and has become one of Miami's more important rushing threats, but the passing offense isn't as dangerous as it was with McComb.
That matters because Miami has weapons capable of creating problems downfield, including Damarion Witten. The RedHawks' ability to fully exploit those weapons becomes less certain when the quarterback play isn't operating at the same level.
Buffalo has already shown it can beat one of the conference's stronger teams, handing Toledo its lone MAC loss. The Bulls enter this game on a three-game winning streak and have built much of their offensive identity around running back Messiah Birch.
That's also where Miami is best equipped to fight back.
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The RedHawks have been difficult to run against, and forcing Buffalo away from Birch and into a more multidimensional offensive approach would play directly into Miami's hands. The RedHawks also have talent in the secondary, including Kaleb Martin, that can make Buffalo pay if it becomes overly dependent on the passing game.
Miami has won 11 of the previous 14 meetings between the programs in Oxford and hasn't lost a home game to Buffalo since 2022.
Mellor and Hodgkinson both expect that trend to continue, but Buffalo has enough on defense and enough of a rushing identity to keep the game uncomfortable into the fourth quarter. Miami by roughly a field goal is the preferred outcome, making Buffalo the play against a 6.5-point spread.
Recorded spread:UMass -3.5
Pick:UMass -3.5
UMass opened the season as one of college football's better surprises before injuries helped derail its momentum.
The Minutemen started 4-0, including an emphatic road win at Rutgers, before losing four straight. The biggest difference between the early-season version and the team that struggled in October was the availability of quarterback William "Pop" Watson III.
Watson missed two games before returning against UConn, and both analysts believe his presence changes the entire complexion of this offense.
At his best, Watson can stress a defense in every direction. He can push the ball vertically, fit throws into tight windows, and create explosive plays with his legs when the structure breaks down. UMass was one of the more entertaining offenses in the conference when he was healthy early in the year.
That creates a favorable matchup against a Ball State defense that ranked 134th nationally in PFN's Defensive Impact metric at the time of recording.
The Cardinals had allowed fewer than 20 points in only one of their first four MAC games. They were also surrendering 5.1 yards per rushing attempt and more than two passing touchdowns per game, giving UMass multiple ways to attack.
Ball State has its own running threat in TJ Horton. Mellor and Hodgkinson view limiting Horton as the primary defensive assignment for a UMass unit that had been forced to carry a much larger burden while Watson was unavailable.
The Minutemen have pieces capable of doing it. Linebacker Timmy Hinspeter has been one of their defensive leaders, while the secondary has generally given UMass enough resistance to remain competitive even during its losing streak.
Special teams also gives UMass an advantage in a matchup with a short spread. When a game is expected to remain within one possession, reliable kicking can become the difference between winning and losing.
Mellor and Hodgkinson both landed around a touchdown as the expected margin. That makes UMass the pick at the 3.5-point number discussed in the recording.
Recorded spread:Toledo -25.5
Pick:Toledo -25.5
Sacramento State finally broke through with its first victory over an FBS opponent as an FBS program when it beat Kent State, but its reward is a visit from one of the MAC's most complete teams.
Toledo enters at 6-2 and remains firmly in the conference title race. Sacramento State is 2-7 in its first FBS season.
The unusual element is geography. Toledo has to travel to the West Coast for Sacramento State's first taste of home midweek MACtion, an environment that bears little resemblance to the November cold-weather games normally associated with the conference.
Hodgkinson doesn't believe the travel is enough to close the talent gap.
Toledo hasn't played since Oct. 24, giving the Rockets considerably more preparation and recovery time than a team making the typical Saturday-to-Wednesday transition. Sacramento State, meanwhile, is coming off its win over Kent State on a shorter turnaround.
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PFN's College Football Playoff Meter gave Toledo a 93.5% chance to win at the time of recording.
Quarterback John Alan Richter is a major reason for the confidence. He has emerged as one of the MAC's better quarterbacks and has a strong group of weapons around him, including Bryson Hammer and Adjatay Dabbs.
Sacramento State ranked 128th nationally in PFN's Defensive Impact metric, creating a significant mismatch against a Toledo offense capable of attacking at multiple levels.
The Rockets' advantage may be even more pronounced on defense.
Andrew Zock has been one of the MAC's most disruptive defenders after transferring from Mercer, where he was the 2025 FCS Defensive Player of the Year. He entered this matchup with 12 tackles for loss and eight sacks, giving Toledo a consistent source of disruption off the edge.
The Rockets also continue to develop talent throughout the secondary, something that has become a hallmark of the program. They held Eastern Michigan to 14 points in October and generated six sacks with 14 quarterback hurries in that win.
Sacramento State deserves more respect than it received before beating Kent State, and the cross-country trip gives this game an unusual variable. Mellor and Hodgkinson still see too many advantages for Toledo on both sides of the ball.
The Rockets should be able to wear Sacramento State down even if the travel contributes to a slower start.
Recorded spread:Eastern Michigan -1.5
Original video pick:Central Michigan +1.5 and to win outright
Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan meet at Ford Field for "Motor City MACtion," with neither team entering in particularly strong form.
Eastern Michigan is 4-5 after consecutive losses to Toledo and Ohio. Central Michigan is 3-5 and has dropped three straight, although the Chippewas came within a late Miami touchdown drive of pulling an upset in their most recent game.
The teams' previous meeting at Ford Field came in 2004 and produced a 61-58 four-overtime game. Mellor and Hodgkinson would happily take another version of that, but their football case in the recording leaned toward Central Michigan in a much lower-scoring matchup.
PFN's College Football Playoff Meter gave the Chippewas a slight 53.5% win probability.
The original analysis focused heavily on Central Michigan's run-heavy offense and quarterback Angel Flores, whose dual-threat ability had been central to Matt Drinkall's attack. That part of the handicap has changed since the video was recorded.
Flores underwent ankle surgery and is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Jadyn Glasser has taken over at quarterback and completed 18 of 31 passes for a career-high 221 yards and a touchdown in his first start against Miami.
That makes Central Michigan a different offense than the one discussed in the original prediction. The Chippewas can no longer lean on Flores, who led the team with 618 rushing yards before his injury.
There are still reasons the original pick favored CMU.
Central Michigan's defense has a potential game-changing player in defensive back Justin Taylor. He returned an interception 46 yards for a touchdown against Miami and has consistently been one of the Chippewas' most disruptive coverage defenders.
Eastern Michigan also enters the matchup having built its four victories against Sacramento State, Lindenwood, UMass, and Akron. The Eagles were unable to keep pace once the schedule moved into games against Toledo and Ohio.
Linebacker Zach Mowchan gives Eastern Michigan a dependable defensive presence, and the Eagles have enough talent to make life difficult for a Central Michigan offense adjusting to a new quarterback.
That is why the quarterback update matters so much here. The video pick was Central Michigan +1.5, with Mellor and Hodgkinson believing the Chippewas could win outright. That prediction was made with Flores forming a central part of the offensive case.
Glasser's 221-yard performance against Miami was encouraging, and Taylor still gives Central Michigan a difference-maker on defense. But this is the Week 10 prediction that carries the most changed context since the original discussion.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network .
