Manchester United head into Tuesday night's Champions League meeting with Roma carrying the sort of form that usually leaves no room for excuses. Nine games without a win is bad enough on its own. When two of those defeats in Europe are a 2-0 loss at Atletico Madrid and a 4-1 collapse at Como, the picture gets worse quickly.
Michael Carrick, now under severe pressure, needs a result. Not a spirited display, not another first half that looks promising before everything unravels, but a result. The 2-0 defeat at Chelsea at the weekend followed a familiar pattern, a decent opening period, then a loss of control, then punishment. Lisandro Martinez's red card did not help, though his suspension applies only domestically.
United are down in 21st place in the 36-team Champions League table. That matters, because this format leaves little margin for drift. Roma are 15th and, more importantly, look like a side with direction. Their European results so far tell a cleaner story, a 4-0 win over Slovan Bratislava, a 1-1 draw away to Fenerbahce and a narrow 4-3 defeat against Real Madrid. Domestically, they sit third in Serie A after an unbeaten start built on seven wins and three draws.
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The key issue for United is simple. They are vulnerable in too many phases of the game. They can still produce decent spells, but they do not sustain control, they concede chances and they look unsure when matches turn against them. That is why this Champions League tie carries extra weight.
Carrick has injury problems, though that only explains part of it. Benjamin Sesko and Manuel Ugarte remain long-term absentees. Luke Shaw and Patrick Dorgu are also out. Marcus Rashford has missed the last three games with a hip injury and could return to the matchday squad, while Amad Diallo will be assessed after being forced off late against Chelsea. Kobbie Mainoo is fit to start after coming off the bench at Stamford Bridge.
There is also a decision to make in defence. Martinez is available in Europe, but his form has been poor and his place no longer looks secure. That is what happens when a team keeps losing and individual errors start to stack up.
Roma arrive with momentum and goals. They won 5-2 at Udinese on Saturday and reported no fresh injury concerns afterwards. Mile Svilar, Manu Kone and Lorenzo Pellegrini are all out, while Paulo Dybala could return to the squad after progressing in his recovery from a calf injury.
Up front, Donyell Malen is the obvious threat. The former Aston Villa forward has already scored three times in the Champions League this season and has 11 goals in all competitions. Roma are the top scorers in Serie A with 28 goals in 10 matches, and the split is neat, 14 at home and 14 away. That tells you they travel well and attack with the same intent regardless of venue.
Their recent scorelines are noisy. A 3-3 draw, then 4-2 and 5-2 wins in the league, plus that 4-3 defeat to Real Madrid in Europe. This is not a cautious side. They score, they commit numbers forward and they force opponents into open games. Against a United defence that has looked leaky for weeks, that is not encouraging for the home side.
Manchester United vs Roma kicks off at 8pm GMT on Tuesday, November 3 at Old Trafford.
United need a response. Roma bring better form, a clearer attacking structure and fewer doubts. Old Trafford still counts for something, but right now not enough to ignore what both teams have shown over the last month.
Prediction, Manchester United 1-3 Roma.
