March Madness bracket predictions: No. 1 seeds to First Four of NCAA tournament

Story by

Story by
March Madness bracket predictions: No. 1 seeds to First Four of NCAA tournament

John Leuzzi, USA TODAY NETWORK · USA TODAY Sports

Tue, Mar 3, 2026 ·

8 min read

About Our Ads

March has arrived in men's college basketball, and the Madness has already begun.

Over the weekend, several teams that were in the mix with Connecticut for the final 1-seed saw some crushing losses that have them out of contention, while other teams made some positive headway with their projected NCAA tournament seedings, such as Florida annihilating No. 19 Arkansas by 34 points to jump in the mix for that 1-seed.

That is just the tip of the iceberg, though.

REQUIRED READING: Five most undervalued teams heading into conference tournaments

The bubble remains congested and work in progress heading into the final week of the regular season for the sports' power five conferences and some mid-major conferences. Auburn finds itself sitting on the outside after a Quad 3 loss to Mississippi dropped them to 1-7 in their last eight games.

Several other Power 5 conference teams — ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Big East — that look to be "locks" for March Madness have hit a few roadblocks that can knock them down a seed line if they aren't able to rebound in the final week of the regular season or if they can't get can't a win (or two) at their respective conference tournaments .

Here's a look at the latest NCAA tournament bracket projection, which takes into account games played through Monday, March 2:

March Madness bracket predictions

Last Four In

Santa Clara **
New Mexico **
TCU **
Indiana **

First Four Out

Auburn
Virginia Commonwealth
San Diego State
Seton Hall

MARCH MADNESS BRACKET: Teams rising, falling in projected NCAA field

No. 1 Seeds

Duke (AQ — ACC)
Arizona (AQ — Big 12)
Michigan (AQ — Big Ten)
UConn (AQ — Big East)

There is no change at the 1-seed line since the last projection . It's UConn vs. the likes of Florida /Illinois/Houston for that final 1-seed spot. The Huskies handled business last week to separate themselves from the 2-seed line a bit with their eighth Quad 1 win of the season against St. John's and a gutsy win over Seton Hall.

No. 2 Seeds

Florida (AQ — SEC)
Illinois
Houston
Michigan State

Florida is beginning to come into the mix and knock on the door of a 1-seed following its 34-point win over No. 19 Arkansas over the weekend, where it got 23 points from Thomas Haugh. The Gators are 18-2 since their less-than-ideal 5-4 start to the season, where they were unable to lock up a signature Quad 1 win in non-conference play.

Michigan State bumps up to the 2-seed line after a 2-0 week on the road with wins at No. 14 Purdue and Indiana. The Spartans have a big one coming up against Michigan to end the regular season before heading to the Big Ten tournament in Chicago.

No. 3 Seeds

Iowa State
Purdue
Kansas
Gonzaga (AQ — West Coast Conference)

Iowa State and Purdue are both losing some steam heading into the final week of the regular season. The Cyclones lost out on an opportunity to keep themselves in the mix for the 1-seed vs. Texas Tech going into Monday's loss at Arizona, as the path to the No. 2 seed had opened up for them a bit before their game vs. the Red Raiders with Houston's three-game losing skid and the Boilermakers' loss to Michigan State.

For the Boilermakers, Matt Painter's squad is 5-6 in their last 11 games, and has lost three of their last four. In addition to its loss to Michigan State last Thursday at Mackey Arena, Purdue followed that up with a loss at Ohio State, a then-bubble team. Gonzaga hangs onto the 3-seed heading into the West Coast Conference tournament. It's a big March coming up for Mark Few's squad before they head to the reorganized Pac-12 next year.

REQUIRED READING: Five most undervalued teams heading into conference tournaments

No. 4 Seeds

Alabama
Virginia
Nebraska
Texas Tech

Alabama stole one on the road at Tennessee to continue its quiet rise up to the 4-seed line . The Crimson Tide has now won eight straight and has eight Quad 1 wins going into Tuesday's road game at Georgia, the latter of which is tied for the fifth most in the country.

No. 5 Seeds

Tennessee
Arkansas
St. John's
Vanderbilt

St. John's bounced back from a 32-point loss at UConn with its own 32-point win over Villanova. Arkansas ended a rather strong month of February, during which it went 5-2, but ending in ugly fashion with its loss to Florida.

No. 6 Seeds

North Carolina
Louisville
Kentucky
Brigham Young

BYU might be "safe" to make the NCAA tournament, but the Cougars' chances of having a six-seed or higher are now in question. Since starting 16-1 on the season, BYU has lost eight of its last 12 games, which includes two bad back-to-back losses to Oklahoma State and West Virginia.

Kentucky has been a tough team to get a read on for most of the season, and it's why the Wildcats have moved around a ton in bracket projections and top 25 rankings. Mark Pope's squad takes a two-game winning streak, which features a top-25 win over Vanderbilt, into its road game at Texas A&M on Tuesday.

Louisville fell out of the latest USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll following back-to-back losses to North Carolina and Clemson. The Cardinals are 1-3 in their last four games.

REQUIRED READING: Ranking top 10 players in college basketball for conference tournaments

No. 7 Seeds

Wisconsin
Villanova
Saint Mary's
North Carolina State

Villanova drops down a seed line following a no-show performance at Madison Square Garden against St. John's over the weekend. The Wildcats will have to find a way to fill the loss of Matt Hodge with their 3-point shooting in their final two games (at DePaul, vs. Xavier) before heading back up to The Garden next week for the Big East tournament.

No. 8 Seeds

Saint Louis (AQ — Atlantic 10)
Utah State (AQ — Mountain West)
Miami
Iowa

The Atlantic 10 continues to look like a one-bid conference with Saint Louis, but the Billikens' loss to Dayton has opened the possibility that there could be a different representative from the conference after next week's tournament in Washington D.C. ... perhaps Virginia Commonwealth under first-year head coach Phil Martelli Jr.?

A loss to last-place Penn State could not have come at a worse time for Iowa. The Hawkeyes hang on to an 8-seed for now, though they've now lost four of their last six.

No. 9 seeds

Texas
Georgia
Texas A&M
Clemson

Clemson picked up a much-needed win over Louisville over the weekend to snap a four-game losing skid. The Tigers have a Quad 1 opportunity on Tuesday at North Carolina awaiting them, where a win could really boost their "okay" 6-5 Quad 1 record before the ACC tournament. Texas A&M is slowly moving its way down to the 10-seed line, as the Aggies have dropped six of their past eight games.

No. 10 seeds

Central Florida
UCLA
Ohio State
Missouri

Ohio State, you can exhale for a second. The Buckeyes' win over Purdue on Sunday bumps Jake Diebler's squad up to the 10-seed line heading. Ohio State still needs a win or two to feel "safe," but the Buckeyes hopes of making the cutline and snapping their three-year drought of not making the tournament look a lot better now than before the ball tipped against Purdue.

No. 11 Seeds

Miami (Ohio) (AQ — Mid-American)
Southern Methodist
Santa Clara **
New Mexico **
TCU **
Indiana **

From the eye-test, Indiana shouldn't be making the field — even as a First Four team — given the fact that the Hoosiers have lost five of their last seven games and are nine games back of first place in the Big Ten standings . It's their top-50 NET ranking (No. 41) that keeps them in Dayton for now.

TCU is an interesting team on the bubble. The Horned Frogs' metrics are the "best," as they are No. 45 in the NET and No. 49 on KenPom with a 4-6 Quad 1 record, but they've been able to turn around their season in the Big 12 rather nicely in the last month to give them a shot at their fourth March Madness appearance in the last five years. Since starting 3-6 in Big 12 play, TCU is 6-1 with two games against Texas Tech and Cincinnati to go in the regular season.

New Mexico went 1-1 last week and has two games this week against Colorado State and Utah State before heading to the Mountain West tournament, where the Lobos are currently projected to be the 2-seed in the field. Santa Clara earned the No. 3 seed and a bye to the quarterfinals in the WCC tournament.