March Madness bracket tracker: Who's in, out on NCAA Tournament bubble
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March Madness bracket tracker: Who's in, out on NCAA Tournament bubble
Ehsan Kassim, USA TODAY NETWORK·USA TODAY Sports
·
4 min read
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It's mid-February, which means it's time forcollege basketballfans to get serious about NCAA Tournament brackets.
Conference championships just around the corner, meaning March Madness is nearly here. At this point of the 2025-26 season, we have a good idea of which teams are headed to the Big Dance — and which teams have work left to do.
Last year at this time, it was easy to predict an SEC team would win it all, as the conference was dominating the top 25. Eventually, it was Florida that won the national championship.
That conference has taken a step back this year, with the Big Ten emerging as the conference to watch. In USA TODAY Sports'latest look at the bracket, Georgia, UCLA, Ohio State, TCU are the last four teams in the tourney, through Tuesday, Feb. 17. Conversely, New Mexico, California, Missouri and Santa Clara are the first four teams out of the tournament.
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Here's an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble, with which teams are locks and likely in the field as the conference tournaments begin this week:
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2025: Florida Gators
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2024: Connecticut Huskies
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2023: Connecticut Huskies
(Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports)
2022: Kansas Jayhawks
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2021: Baylor Bears
(Grace Hollars, IndyStar)
2019: Virginia Cavaliers
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2018: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2017: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2016: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2015: Duke Blue Devils
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2014: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2013: Louisville Cardinals (title later vacated)
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2012: Kentucky Wildcats
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2011: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2010: Duke Blue Devils
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2009: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
2008: Kansas Jayhawks
(Jerry Lai, USA TODAY Sports)
2007: Florida Gators
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2006: Florida Gators
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
2005: North Carolina Tar Heels
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2004: Connecticut Huskies
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2003: Syracuse Orangemen
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
2002: Maryland Terrapins
(MICHAEL A. SCHWARZ, USA TODAY Sports)
2001: Duke Blue Devils
(JACK GRUBER, USA TODAY Sports)
2000: Michigan State Spartans
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1999: Connecticut Huskies
(EILEEN BLASS, USA TODAY Sports)
1998: Kentucky Wildcats
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1997: Arizona Wildcats
(H. DARR BEISER, USA TODAY Sports)
1996: Kentucky Wildcats
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1995: UCLA Bruins
(RVR Photos, USA TODAY Sports)
1994: Arkansas Razorbacks
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1993: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
1992: Duke Blue Devils
(Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images)
1991: Duke Blue Devils
(Getty Images)
1990: UNLV Runnin' Rebels
(Ken Levine, Getty Images)
1989: Michigan Wolverines
(Getty Images)
1988: Kansas Jayhawks
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
1987: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1986: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
1985: Villanova Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1984: Georgetown Hoyas
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1983: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Getty Images)
1982: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1981: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1980: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
1979: Michigan State Spartans
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1978: Kentucky Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1977: Marquette
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1976: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1975: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1974: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1973: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1972: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1971: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1970: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1969: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1968: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1967: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1966: Texas Western Miners
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1965: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1964: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1963: Loyola Ramblers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
1961: Cincinnati Bearcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
1960: Ohio State Buckeyes
(Bill Foley, Columbus Dispatch)
1/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
1/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2026: Michigan Wolverines
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
2/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2025: Florida Gators
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)
3/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2024: Connecticut Huskies
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
4/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2023: Connecticut Huskies
(Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports)
5/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2022: Kansas Jayhawks
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
6/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2021: Baylor Bears
(Grace Hollars, IndyStar)
7/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2019: Virginia Cavaliers
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
8/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2018: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
9/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2017: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
10/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2016: Villanova Wildcats
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
11/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2015: Duke Blue Devils
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
12/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2014: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
13/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2013: Louisville Cardinals (title later vacated)
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
14/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2012: Kentucky Wildcats
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
15/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2011: Connecticut Huskies
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
16/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2010: Duke Blue Devils
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
17/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2009: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Bob Donnan, USA TODAY Sports)
18/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2008: Kansas Jayhawks
(Jerry Lai, USA TODAY Sports)
19/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2007: Florida Gators
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
20/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2006: Florida Gators
(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)
21/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2005: North Carolina Tar Heels
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
22/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2004: Connecticut Huskies
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
23/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2003: Syracuse Orangemen
(H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY Sports)
24/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2002: Maryland Terrapins
(MICHAEL A. SCHWARZ, USA TODAY Sports)
25/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2001: Duke Blue Devils
(JACK GRUBER, USA TODAY Sports)
26/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
2000: Michigan State Spartans
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
27/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1999: Connecticut Huskies
(EILEEN BLASS, USA TODAY Sports)
28/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1998: Kentucky Wildcats
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
29/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1997: Arizona Wildcats
(H. DARR BEISER, USA TODAY Sports)
30/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1996: Kentucky Wildcats
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
31/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1995: UCLA Bruins
(RVR Photos, USA TODAY Sports)
32/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1994: Arkansas Razorbacks
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
33/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1993: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)
34/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1992: Duke Blue Devils
(Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images)
35/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1991: Duke Blue Devils
(Getty Images)
36/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1990: UNLV Runnin' Rebels
(Ken Levine, Getty Images)
37/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1989: Michigan Wolverines
(Getty Images)
38/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1988: Kansas Jayhawks
(ROBERT DEUTSCH, USA TODAY Sports)
39/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1987: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
40/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1986: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
41/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1985: Villanova Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
42/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1984: Georgetown Hoyas
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
43/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1983: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Getty Images)
44/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1982: North Carolina Tar Heels
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
45/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1981: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
46/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1980: Louisville Cardinals
(The Courier-Journal)
47/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1979: Michigan State Spartans
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
48/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1978: Kentucky Wildcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
49/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1977: Marquette
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
50/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1976: Indiana Hoosiers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
51/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1975: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
52/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1974: North Carolina State Wolfpack
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
53/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1973: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
54/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1972: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
55/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1971: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
56/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1970: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
57/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1969: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
58/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1968: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
59/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1967: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
60/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1966: Texas Western Miners
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
61/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1965: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
62/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1964: UCLA Bruins
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
63/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1963: Loyola Ramblers
(Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports)
64/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1961: Cincinnati Bearcats
(Malcolm Emmons, US PRESSWIRE)
65/65
March Madness: Men's college basketball national champions since 1960
1960: Ohio State Buckeyes
(Bill Foley, Columbus Dispatch)
March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker
Tracker based on games through Tuesday, Feb. 17
NCAA Tournament locks
Big Ten (7):Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa
ACC (6):Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson and North Carolina State
Big 12 (6):Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech and Brigham Young
SEC (6):Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky
Other (5): Gonzaga, Miami (Ohio), St. Louis, Saint Mary's and Utah State
Big East(3):UConn, St. John's and Villanova
The Big Ten currently leads all conferences with a projected seven teams that look like locks for the NCAA Tournament. Michigan has looked like the best team in the country all season.
Following a slow start, Florida looks like a real threat to win the SEC and get back to the Final Four to defend its national championship. The SEC ties the ACC and Big 12 with six teams looking like potential locks.
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The Big East has three potential locks for the tournament, making it a real threat to the other conferences in 2025-26.
NCAA Tournament likely ins
ACC (2): Miami and Southern Methodist
Big Ten(2):Indiana and UCLA
Big 12 (1):Central Florida
Big East:None
SEC (3):Auburn, Texas A&M and Texas
Other (6):Howard, New Mexico, Santa Clara, San Diego State, VCU and Yale
Auburn reached the Final Four last season, but still has some work to do to even get back to the tournament in the first season with Steven Pearl leading the team, following the retirement of Bruce Pearl before the season.
Despite losing Richard Pitino to St. John's, New Mexico has held up strongly this year and is a team that could likely earn a berth in the NCAA Tournament if the Lobos have a strong ending to the season.
After winning it all in football, could Indiana make history and follow Florida in becoming schools to win football and basketball national titles in the same academic year?
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NCAA Tournament bubble teams
ACC: None
Big Ten (2):Ohio State and Southern California
Big 12:None
Big East (1):Seton Hall
SEC (2):Georgia and Missouri
Other (7): Belmont, High Point, Liberty, Navy, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin and Utah Valley
These bubble teams have just over a 50% chance of reaching the NCAA Tournament, according toJThom Analytics. These teams have a strong chance to make the Big Dance, but will need to have strong finishes to the season.
For these teams, winning their conference tournaments would remove doubts about the strength of the schedule, quality of wins, etc. Schools such as Georgia or Missouri in the SEC, or Ohio State and USC in the Big Ten, could use deep runs in their respective conference tournaments to lock in a spot.
At this point, none of the schools on this list should book tickets for the NCAA Tournament — but one good week could change the discourse and make Selection Sunday less stressful.
