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The Memphis Tigers take on the Tulane Green Wave in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Friday, Oct. 16. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Memphis is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. Tulane, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +210 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here's my Memphis vs. Tulane predictionand college football pick for Friday, October 16.
Memphis vs. Tulane Pick: Memphis -7
My Tulane vs. Memphis best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Memphis vs Tulane Spread: Memphis -6.5, Tulane +6.5
Memphis vs Tulane Over/Under: 54.5 Total Points
Memphis vs Tulane Moneyline: Memphis ML -260, Tulane ML +210
Charles Huff continues to lead Memphis as the American favorite. It has more talent and more resources than anybody else in the league, and now that ex-coach Ryan Silverfield isn't wasting that advantage, Memphis is back on track.
Memphis' last two games came by a combined 97-21—both over American Conference foes—reinforcing the idea that Memphis isn't a team to play with its food anymore (see: last year's 31-24 outright loss to UAB as a -21.5 favorite).
Huff is an elite coach and, despite his history of friction with his athletic directors, he's a proven winner.
QB Marcus Stokes is top five in the country in yards per attempt (10.6) and showing an ability to extend the play with his legs.
The Tigers always have a potent offense, but one that's previously thrived on volume. This year's team is more efficient, ranking No. 2 in yards per play (7.76), 22nd in adjusted EPA per play and 29th in success rate.
Stokes spreads the ball around—six different receivers already have 120+ yards—and Jaylin Carter has been an explosive addition to the backfield. This is the American's premier offense.
Lance Guidry was a great hire, and he's working with a ferocious pass rush.
The duo of J'Mond Tapp and Elijah Kinsler is as good as you'll find in the Group of Six, and the unit has logged a sack on nearly 9.5% of opposing dropbacks (12th).
However, Memphis does have a leaky secondary that's given up 18 20+ yard passes to opponents. When Tapp and Kinsler aren't getting home, Memphis' secondary gets into trouble pretty quickly.
Will Hall was the most puzzling hire this offseason.
With options aplenty and a desirable job wide open, Tulane opted to pass on names like Billy Napier, Shannon Dawson and Slade Nagle (and even, in some regard, Blake Baker before LSU locked him back in).
Hall was the standing passing game coordinator and has already had runs as a head coach. He brought a 14-30 record to the table and was fired at Southern Miss .
Tulane sits 2-3 on the season with a loss to Army and narrow wins over South Alabama and a horrendous Southern Miss team. To jump right to the chase: Tulane isn't very good and bringing in Hall was a misfire.
It took less than one game for Zeon Chriss-Gremillion to be benched for Kadin Semonza , but Semonza has been average and had to be reassured as the starter for Week 7; freshman Trace Johnson was a name brought up this past week in press conferences, too.
The name to note going forward, though, is running back Maurice Turner , who just ran for 200 yards on Southern Miss (16.7 yards per carry!).
Jamauri McClure played his first snaps last week but was limited. He's expected to play a much bigger role this week.
The biggest disappointment, however, has been the defense
. This preseason, the Green Wave stop unit was ranked No. 1 in the American just about across the board, but it's been worse than average — Tulane ranks 58th in points per drive, 105th in Passing Success Rate, and hasn't offset those numbers with a significant amount of havoc plays.
Star linebacker Chris Rodgers suffered a long-term injury in September.
This isn't your early-2020s Tulane Green Wave. This is a bad team that should be treated as such until proven otherwise.
This is a spread that's teetering on -7. The number hasn't climbed above -7, and any -6.5 numbers that flash get bought up quickly. An initial point total of 54.5 was bet down to 52.5 — that was bet way up to 55.5, where it sits now.
Tulane is simply overvalued, even here at home. Its record doesn't truly show it — there's plenty of hand-waving around losses to Duke and Kansas State — but it's a team worse than its market rating suggests.
The Green Wave allowed Duke's Nate Sheppard to run loose for 227 yards and Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson to run for 152 yards. Though Stokes takes the headlines here, Memphis fields a top-30 run game nationally.
Memphis has a decisive advantage in the trenches on both sides. The Tigers should dominate the defensive trenches as Tulane has surrendered a 9.5% sack rate (112th). Both tackles, Reese Baker and Darion Reed , have struggled this season.
Even on the road, I expect Memphis to come out and roll Tulane with advantages at both lines, at quarterback, and decisively at coaching.
Pick: Memphis -7
