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New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction: The Lobos Pushing For the Playoff
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- New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction: The Lobos Pushing For the Playoff
New Mexico has to keep on winning, and then hope that's enough.
Boise State has the inside track on getting the Group of Six spot in the College Football Playoff, but the Lobos can't worry about that. If New Mexico wins the next four games and takes the Mountain West title – likely against UNLV, if all goes according to form – it'll have a strong case.
Nevada is dangerous, though. The Wolf Pack might not be in the Mountain West mix, but they're better than the 3-5 record looks.
New Mexico vs Nevada: Quick Hits
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New Mexico (7-1) hosts UNLV, goes to Wyoming, and closes against Air Force.
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Nevada (3-5) goes to Northern Illinois next week before hosting Hawaii and finishing at UNLV.
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New Mexico won 24-22 last year, but Nevada won the previous three and in five of the previous six.
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How To Watch New Mexico vs Nevada
Date: Friday, November 6, 2026
Game Time: 9:00 PM ET
TV: CBS Sports Network
Location: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
– Week 10 Schedule, Predictions
– CFN Top 25
| Bowl Projections
– Expert Picks: Week 10
Why New Mexico Will Win
Nevada's run defense isn't good enough, and it's not strong at controlling the clock. New Mexico will run it at least 40 times, as it holds the ball for around 33 minutes. The Wolf Pack are 1-5 when allowing more than 80 rushing yards, 2-0 when they don't, and Oklahoma was the only team able to hold down the Lobo ground attack.
Why Nevada Will Win
New Mexico is turning the ball over. It was air-tight over the first four games, and it gave it up eight times over the last four games, including three times against Hawaii and San Jose State on the road.
Nevada has to start forcing mistakes. It has to take a few chances to get into the Lobo backfield, and it should work. No, the Wolf Pack don't do the time of possession battle well, but they're No. 1 in the Mountain West in third down stops.
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New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction, Betting Lines
No one is doing much of anything against the No. 1 defense in the nation. New Mexico has only allowed over 300 yards once – 405 in the 42-18 win over New Mexico State – and it's not going to let Nevada get comfortable.
The Lobos won't go off, and the final score will be low and close, but to go cliché, a seven-point New Mexico lead is like a 21-point lead for anyone else. However, Nevada won't get put away until late.
New Mexico 23, Nevada 16
Latest Consensus Line: New Mexico -9.5, o/u: 37.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5)
:3.5
Must See Rating (out of 5)
: 3
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
