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Editor's Note: Michigan State quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is not expected to play, according to a report from ESPN's Pete Thamel.
The Michigan State Spartans take on the UCLA Bruins in Pasadena, California, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
UCLA is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -670. Michigan State, meanwhile, enters as a +13.5 underdog and is +470 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here's my Michigan State vs. UCLA predictionand college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
Michigan State vs. UCLA Pick: UCLA -14
My UCLA vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Bruins to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page .
Michigan State vs UCLA Spread: UCLA -16.5, Michigan State +16.5
Michigan State vs UCLA Over/Under: 43 Total Points
Michigan State vs UCLA Moneyline: Michigan State ML +550, UCLA ML -800
Even when dealing with a slew of injuries, Michigan State still put up a fight in a Pat Fitzgerald revenge game, losing to Northwestern by a score of 27-24.
After entering the locker room with a lead, the Spartans fell apart in the second half, leading up to a missed field goal to send it to overtime.
Despite the loss, quarterback Alessio Milivojevic flashed his arm, throwing for 216 yards and two touchdowns.
While his completion rate was less than ideal, Milivojevic took care of the ball and helped the Spartans get into scoring territory, masking an offense that ranks outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives.
Unfortunately for Michigan State, it's poised to regress after last weekend's valiant effort.
This team lacks the versatility needed to keep drives alive while running back Cam Edwards is on the sideline. Before going down with a season-ending injury, Edwards consistently put pressure on the second level, averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
With Jaziun Patterson in the backfield, the Spartans have plummeted down to 89th in Rushing Success Rate, putting far too much pressure on Milivojevic's shoulders to keep them competitive.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan State has been abysmal on defense, limping into Week 8 ranked 99th in Success Rate allowed, 103rd in explosiveness allowed, 92nd in Points Per Opportunity allowed and 106th in Havoc.
Barring a sudden turnaround, the Spartans' lack of production on defense will continue to force them to play in highly volatile contests, making it difficult to compete on a nightly basis.
It may not have been pretty, but UCLA squeaked out the win over Wisconsin , keeping its perfect record intact.
Questionable game-changing penalties aside, the Bruins' performance on defense was certainly impressive, holding Badgers quarterback Colton Joseph to just 66 yards through the air.
UCLA's high level of play on defense was on par with how it has fared throughout the regular season, fielding a group that ranks in the top 15 in Success Rate allowed and Havoc.
With the Bruins creating disruptions at a high rate, opposing quarterbacks are unable to get into a groove, often forcing the offense to stall out early in drives.
Speaking of offense, quarterback Ty Dieffenbach kept the ball moving in his first start with the Bruins, throwing for 264 yards while completing 66.7% of his passes.
Even though Dieffenbach aired it out, he was unable to scramble away from the Badgers' pressure when his wideouts were covered, rushing for -12 yards. That's a massive step back from his time with Cal Poly , where Dieffenbach averaged nearly five yards per carry.
With Nico Iamaleava out for the rest of the season, Dieffenbach will need to recapture the same success he had on the ground with the Mustangs if he wants to keep the Bruins dynamic.
When Dieffenbach can take off and run, opposing linebackers will be forced to spy on the outside, creating more space across the middle for wide receiver Semaj Morgan to exploit.
Heading into Saturday, Dieffenbach will have a great opportunity to find his footing by gashing a Spartans front seven that struggles to hold opposing runners behind the line of scrimmage, ranking below the league average in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Whether it's through the air or on the ground, UCLA will be able to consistently stay ahead of the sticks while pushing the Spartans back into the red zone.
Once in scoring position, expect the Bruins to put points on the board, taking advantage of a defense that's giving up 3.74 Points Per Opportunity.
Defensively, UCLA's pressure in the trenches will force Milivojevic to get the ball out of his hands quicker than anticipated, leading to an increase in his total number of turnover-worthy plays.
If the Bruins can force a turnover or two, Dieffenbach will be spotted with generous field position, giving the offense a great opportunity to run up the score.
Place a wager on the Bruins to cover the spread at the key number of -14 with a stop point at -17. With the Bruins defense firing on all cylinders, place a separate wager on Michigan State to be held under its team total at no lower than 14.
Pick: UCLA -14 (Play to -17) · Michigan State Team Total Under 14 or Better
