The Boston Celtics are 5-2, currently third in the East. They're fifth in the conference in scoring and third in point differential.
Simply put, they're doing well. And they're doing it without some of the strengths we expected them to show. Their offensive rebounding has shown itself from time to time, but they're still 13th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game and 15th in offensive rebounding rate. Mitchell Robinson, who averaged 4.2 offensive rebounds per game last season, tied for fourth in the league, is currently pulling in 1.8 per game. That's fewer than Mario Hezonja.
"We have him a little bit further away from the rim, setting screens and playmaking for us on the perimeter as part of our offense," Joe Mazzulla said after the Celtics' loss to the Rockets . "I think that has a little bit to do with it."
Mazzulla is nothing if not protective of his players, so his covering for Robinson is no surprise. No one spends more time out on the perimeter than Luka Garza, and his offensive rebounding percentage is four percentage points higher than Robinson's and pretty much right in line with where he was last season. Neemias Queta's offensive rebounding has dipped some, but it's still higher than Robinson's as well.
Robinson, asked about it after the loss, could not hide his exasperation.
"I don't even know bro, to be honest," he said. "I know I gotta figure it out soon, though. So I don't know."
Robinson is a bit of a unique character who is much more willing to share his true feelings rather than spew canned answers about looking at film, getting reps, and feeling confident he'll figure it out. We're all grateful for a real look at what an athlete is going through.
The sigh at the end feels very real, which is why that exasperation is the most concerning part of this. He's already pretty frustrated with how things are going.
He's not alone.
His lack of conditioning is becoming blatantly clear. Beyond what you see in the box score, there have been some lackluster possessions where his energy level is near zero. Watch him "set" screens on this play:
They say the ball finds the right energy, so it's no wonder the ball isn't finding Robinson too often right now. That's one of the lowest-energy possessions you'll see from a center.
So right off the bat, the Celtics need Robinson's energy to improve. The 19 minutes he's averaging are in line with last season, but he's generally been able to get to the mid-20-minute range in his career. He played 15 against the Rockets and it honestly felt like at least five too many. The matchup with Alperen Sengun was taxing and any residual confusion about what the Celtics expect from him is making things worse.
On top of that, the Celtics are only finding marginal success on the one play, a simple pick-and-roll, that was supposed to reward Robinson for screening and working to open up the floor for his teammates.
The Celtics did connect on a couple of alley-oops to Robinson against the Rockets, but it seems that they are more frequently flying past him.
"Two of those I just threw him way too high," Jayson Tatum said after the game. "That was just kind of on the passer for me. I guess I was rushed a little bit, just threw it too high."
That might be the case, but the missed timing is a season-long issue. There certainly have been some bright spots along the way, but the lack of chemistry to this point is at least a little concerning, considering the rest of the team seems to be progressing a lot faster.
"It's just two-man pick-and-roll. Working on those every single day," Mazzulla said. "It's the right read. He's got to deliver the pass ... It's just stuff we gotta work on. Just repping it every single day, the timing of the lob."
I don't want to put the missed lobs all on Robinson because this is definitely an "it takes two to tango" situation. At the same time, the Celtics are missing high on lobs fairly consistently, and it's probably because they have seen Robinson get those in the past.
Just last month, Derrick White talked about how he can "Throw it up to the top of the backboard, and [Robinson will] go get it." That's where Tatum has been putting his lobs, but Robinson hasn't been getting them.
It's still early, but it's fair to start asking questions about rotations. Robinson came off the bench for the first time yesterday, and there's a strong argument to be made for keeping him there. The on/off numbers are simply staggering right now.
Databallr.com
Databallr.com
Databallr.com
Of course, the data is very noisy right now, so one or two games can swing this in a very different direction. Still, the early returns show Robinson is having an overwhelmingly negative impact.
It's very easy to overreact in this situation. Neemias Queta has generally been very good for Boston, and Luka Garza has been excellent in his role. The Celtics can lean into the early data, put Queta back in with the starters, and be completely justified in riding with the established chemistry. They can turn to Garza for good minutes off the bench and the hustle plays that we're used to.
However, it's also valid to wonder if this is the best long-term strategy. It's still only early November and the Celtics are, as I mentioned at the top of the piece, still winning 71% of their games despite Robinson's issues. This is a problem that needs fixing, but it's also not a problem that is crushing the Celtics.
The Celtics' efforts with Robinson are like trying to make fire with sticks when they have a lighter in their back pocket. They can keep trying to learn with the sticks, hoping that once they figure out this difficult skill, they'll have it for the long haul just in case they lose the lighter.
Playoff basketball is basically fighting with sticks and rocks, so there's equal validity to sticking with this plan through the tough times. That's what makes this a conundrum. It's probably too soon to give up on anything, but it's not too soon to start wondering about the backup plan.
"It's new, but at the end of the day, it's still basketball," Robinson said. "Things that I do naturally, I should just still be doing it. I don't know. I just haven't found my rhythm yet."
This article was originally published on www.si.com/nba/celtics/onsi as Mitchell Robinson's Frustrating Start Is Forcing a Tough Question for the Celtics .
