The Minnesota Twins kicked off Grapefruit League action in Fort Myers over the weekend without Pablo Lopez, who was lost for the season on the first full-squad practice of spring.
Fortunately, after Joe Ryan was scratched from his first exhibition start of the new season, received better news back on his MRI testing, so he's still expected to be the Twins' Opening Day starter, though his status for the WBC is certainly in question.
Credit: Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The MN Twins still have roughly a month left down in Fort Myers for new manager Derek Shelton to sort things out for the start of his first season running the show. Most experts and projection models , especially after Lopez' torn UCL, have low expectations for the 2026 Twins, no matter how much Tom Pohlad claims to believe in them.
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Only 26 players can go with the team to Baltimore on March 26th for Opening Day against the Orioles. With things starting to heat up down in Florida, here is a fresh look at what a realistic squad could look like a month from now, as currently constructed.
Ryan Jeffers and Victor Caratini are going to make the Minnesota Twins Opening Day roster… as long as Ryan Jeffers isn't traded before then. Jeffers is a longstanding veteran in his final year of team control . Last season, he was one of the team's best hitters, carrying a .266/.356/.397 slash line (108 OPS+).
Ryan Jeffers with an extra-base hit to right-center field off Joe Ryan. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/KYndFWJRjK
— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) February 15, 2026
But if the Twins get a good opportunity to move him and improve elsewhere, a spring training trade isn't out of the realm of possibility. Caratini, meanwhile, just signed a two-year deal in MN this offseason. His signing, combined with the acquisition of Alex Jackson via trade is what sparked Jeffers trade rumors in the first place.
If both Jeffers and Caratini are on the roster coming out of Fort Myers, the split should lean more in Jeffers' favor, but Caratini will see the field plenty, even if it has to be as a designated hitter or at first base. But then what happens with Jackson? Because he's out of options and owed $1.35 million this season .
Minnesota's first free agent move of note this offseason was signing veteran slugger Josh Bell . He's not great defensively, but he'll man first base plenty.
Keaschall can play in the outfield this year, but looks like the primary second baseman. Brooks Lee — who slashed .236/.285/.370 last season — is tasked with taking over at SS for Carlos Correa and there are a ton of questions surrounding his viability at the most important infield position in baseball.
Meanwhile, Mr. Grand Slam Royce Lewis look to bounce back, as well. After one of the hottest starts of any prospect in Minnesota Twins history, Royce has hit just .235 with a .705 OPS and 93 OPS+ over the past two seasons.
Royce homers are SO BACK! pic.twitter.com/ZPtICDrUyj
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) February 21, 2026
The Twins shortstop position is a concern, and the lack of defensive certainty there from Lee is why I think Arcia has a shot to make the cut. He'll battle Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray , who are already on the 40-man roster , but losing out to them seems disastrous.
Clemens had a career-year last season and put up a 96 OPS+ . That earns him first dibs at holding down a utility spot. He could be pushed by Eric Wagaman or Gio Urshela as well.
The Minnesota Twins have built themselves a mess in the outfield. Short of Byron Buxton, there's very few straightforward answers. Matt Wallner is going to start in right field, but he's coming off a disappointing 110 OPS+ . The alternatives are littered with similar left fielders.
For some reason Trevor Larnach was brought back and there has yet to be trade steam. If he's in the organization, he'll be on the team. Austin Martin made a case down the stretch last season and can play both left field and center. Outman was acquired from the Dodgers in a swap for Brock Stewart last summer. He's out of options and a solid spring should allow him to stick.
Rodents, rise up. pic.twitter.com/A7x8wJy0Bd
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) February 22, 2026
That means Alan Roden and a bunch of prospects yet to debut will duke it out in Triple-A. Roden could force his way into consideration, and the early grand slam helps his case. He has an option though, and is also left-handed.
Assuming Joe Ryan can get to Opening Day healthy, he'll make the first start. It remains uncertain if he'll join Team USA after dealing with back tightness. Ryan finished last season with a career-low 3.42 ERA (3.74 FIP) .
Bailey Ober and Taj Bradley should be considered inked in behind him. Bradley is the most established of the starters acquired at the trade deadline, and has already thrown 385 1/3 major league innings .
Simeon Woods-Richardson doesn't have the highest ceiling but his 4.04 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 2025 will certainly play, making him a fine back-end option in the Twins' rotation.
Simeon Woods Richardson , K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/vRWcLhPzYf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 8, 2024
The final spot is basically a competition between Zebby Matthews, David Festa , and Mick Abel . None of them need more time at Triple-A, but there isn't room for everyone either.
Abel had a 2.20 ERA in 98 1/3 innings at Triple-A last season, but gave up 28 runs in 10 major league games. Festa, meanwhile, may be on his last opportunity to earn a starter spot, before the Twins look to convert him to the bullpen.
Although Zebby Matthews had a 5.56 ERA last season , it was backed by a 3.79 FIP and strong underlying metrics. His velocity has also ticked up, and he has an ideal starting arsenal. That's why I expect Matthews gets the first crack at that fifth spot.
Under Rocco Baldelli the Minnesota Twins carried eight relievers, and I don't see that changing with Derek Shelton. Taylor Rogers is a lock, and the likely closer, after signing as a free agent . Anthony Banda was acquired from the Dodgers as they simply have too many good arms.
Don't look now, but Banda is back to being great 🔥🔥🔥
(🎥: @Dodgers ) pic.twitter.com/qJiW3oJuvX— Dodger Blue (@DodgerBlue1958) July 2, 2025
Justin Topa, Cole Sands, and Kody Funderburk all return from last season's bullpen. Minnesota prioritized Orze when the Rays were ready to move him this offseason, and then numbers are respectable.
Both Chafin and Hendriks are non-roster invitees, but health being to their credit, they should get a shot. Chafin posted a 2.41 ERA (3.46 FIP) last season and has been reliable over his 12 year career. Hendriks struggled (6.59 ERA) in just 13 2/3 innings with Boston last year, but was returning from injury.
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Hendriks and Orze are probably the two closest to the bubble for Minnesota. If they don't make the cut, then Dan Altavilla , Andrew Bash, Grant Hartwig , Julian Merryweather , Cody Laweryson, Matt Bowman , and Trent Baker are all names to watch.
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