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Montreal Canadiens: Midseason Playoff Chances and Key Factors
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- Montreal Canadiens: Midseason Playoff Chances and Key Factors
Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
We're now a little over the midway point of the NHL season, which means it's the perfect time to evaluate whether the Montreal Canadiens have a healthy chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
As it stands, the Habs are third in the Atlantic Division standings, with 52 points in 42 games. On the surface, that may seem like a situation that will guarantee a playoff spot, but the playoff race in the Eastern Conference is hotly contested to say the least.
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For example, the Ottawa Senators are 14th in the Eastern Conference, and yet they're just seven points behind the Canadiens, with one game in hand.
Montreal Canadiens Playoff Odds As Of January 7
There are several resources available when discussing playoff odds, but we're going to stick to websites that are available to the public without a paywall or subscription.
The first site, Money Puck , gives the Canadiens a 69.1% chance of qualifying for the playoffs. They're also projecting Montreal's odds of winning their first round series at 31.7%. To make matters more interesting, they also suggest Montreal has a 22.2% chance of finishing second in the Atlantic Division.
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As for the entire Eastern Conference, Money Puck currently has the following odds in place:
Another useful website, Hockey Reference , suggests the Canadiens have a 71.7% chance of making the playoffs, which aligns quite well with the odds we already discussed.
Strength Of Schedule
With 40 games left on the schedule, there's ample time for significant movement in the standings. In other words, Montreal's playoff spot is far from guaranteed.
On that note, they do have a relatively easy strength of schedule (SOS) remaining. According to Tankathon, the Habs have the eighth-easiest SOS on the docket, a very encouraging sign when it comes to their playoff odds.
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However, we shouldn't lose sight that most of the teams with an 'easy' schedule are Atlantic Division rivals.
The Detroit Red Wings (1st), Ottawa Senators (2nd), Toronto Maple Leafs (4th), Buffalo Sabres (5th), and the Boston Bruins (6th) find themselves ahead of the Habs when it comes to the ease of their SOS.
This connotes that Montreal can't afford to drop many four-point games, as it will lower their playoff odds considerably.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
There are other factors to consider, including Montreal's injury situation. Adding Kaiden Guhle , Patrik Laine , Alex Newhook , and Kirby Dach down the stretch should bolster their playoff odds, but we do have to be mindful that every NHL team deals with injuries, and several other clubs will receive reinforcements as well.
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The goaltending situation is also quite fluid, with the Canadiens currently owning the sixth-worst team save percentage in the NHL at 5v5 (.893).
Jacob Fowler offers the best odds of winning, but it also stands to reason the Canadiens aren't going to keep three goaltenders in the NHL for the rest of the season, as it's simply not a healthy situation for anyone involved. Returning Fowler to the AHL would remove one of the most important assets the Habs have in place when it comes to their playoff race.
And finally, the Habs will have to focus on improving their share of high-quality chances at 5v5, a glaring weakness ever since Martin St-Louis took over as head coach. Montreal has only managed to control 44.6% of the high-danger chances this season, 29th overall in the NHL.
That being said, the NHL is the land of imperfection, with very few clubs presenting a rock-solid playoff portfolio.
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Even if the Canadiens still have to address several issues, it's fair to say they've done a surprisingly good job banking points, and consequently, they're among the favourites to qualify for the 2025–26 playoffs.
All Montreal Canadiens playoff odds via Hockey Reference and Money Puck .
Strength of schedule information via Tankathon .
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