The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.
Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it's difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.
For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.
For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it's a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn't confusing enough, it's possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won't entertain that possibility, at least not to start.
Clear as mud? Good. For what it's worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes more clear, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ
Hawaii Bowl: MW #2
Arizona Bowl: MW #3
New Mexico Bowl: MW #4
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup
Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl
Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ
Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams
Puerto Rico Bowl: Backup bowl
First Responder Bowl: Backup bowl
Boca Raton Bowl: Backup bowl
College Football Playoff: Highest ranked G6 team
Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii
Arizona Bowl: Air Force
New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: New Mexico
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State
Sun Bowl: Washington State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State
First Responder Bowl: Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl: San Diego State
College Football Playoff: N/A
I'm going with five bowl teams in each conference. I see UNLV and New Mexico as the top two teams in the Mountain West, so I'm giving them the two best bowl games. Hawaii and Air Force will be firm bowl teams this season. Also, I have NDSU squarely in the bowl picture in their first FBS season. For the Pac-12, I think Boise State starts the year in the driver's seat. Then, the Bulldogs, Cougars, Bobcats, and Aztecs will all be bowl teams in some order. I picked Washington State for a Pac-12 legacy bowl tie-in since they were in the previous version of the conference. Wyoming and Utah State start the year as the first teams looking to jump the ones I listed here.
Potato Bowl: UNLV
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii
Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State
New Mexico Bowl: Air Force
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: New Mexico
Cactus Bowl: Wyoming
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State
Sun Bowl: Washington State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State
First Responder Bowl: Utah State
Boca Raton Bowl: Texas State
College Football Playoff: Boise State
I have six teams from each conference going bowling. It feels like there will be a lot of teams that narrowly reach bowl eligibility and that is reflected in this projection. It is a risky pick, but I have Boise State in the CFP and UNLV taking the top spot in the Mountain West.
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: UNLV
Arizona Bowl: Hawaii
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: North Dakota State
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State
Sun Bowl: Washington State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State
First Responder Bowl: Texas State
Boca Raton Bowl: Utah State
College Football Playoff: Boise State
I have six teams from each conference making bowl games. Those specific positions will be decided at the end of the season. Boise State and SDSU will meet on conference championship with Boise winning and getting the CFP bid. New Mexico beats UNLV in the MWC championship but will be passed over in favor of Boise State in the CFB. Hawaii will have a breakout season and SJSU will recover to find strong offenses and defenses.
Potato Bowl: UNLV
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii
Arizona Bowl: Air Force
New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Nevada
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State
Sun Bowl: Washington State
Puerto Rico Bowl: Boise State
First Responder Bowl: Fresno State
Boca Raton Bowl: Utah State
College Football Playoff: New Mexico
I have six Mountain West teams and five Pac-12 teams. Honestly, due to how close every team is in the latter, I foresee some classic Pac-12 cannibalization preventing even this number, but I think it's even more likely that it will merely prevent an entry into the CFP, specifically for Boise State and SDSU. That will leave the door open for New Mexico, who I think will rise to the top of the G6, given their high level of returning production and incredible coaching staff. Jason Eck definitely could have left in the offseason if he wanted to, him staying is a clear indicator that he believes he can build something truly special in Albuquerque. I also believe the Lobos will benefit from the chaos across the rest of the G6 conferences, with most of the typical contenders breaking in new head coaches (Tulane, JMU, USF, etc.)
Potato Bowl: UNLV
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: Hawaii
New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: San Jose State
Cactus Bowl: Air Force
Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State
Sun Bowl: Washington State
Puerto Rico Bowl: San Diego State
First Responder Bowl: Fresno State
Boca Raton Bowl: Texas State
College Football Playoff: UNLV
Six and six for me. (more the merrier!) I think both conferences will catch people by surprise this season. For my CFP pick, I took the Rebs. If they can get handle Memphis and a road trip to Hawaii in the first two weeks, there is no reason they can't run the table and earn a way into the dance. After all, the national title game is in Las Vegas this year……..
