The Mariners will have money to spend this offseason. The more uncomfortable observation is whether they will have enough of it to repair everything they allowed to break in 2026. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times projects Seattle's 2027 payroll at roughly $135.9 million before any meaningful additions. If ownership keeps the budget near its recent $165 million to $170 million range, Jerry Dipoto should enter the winter with approximately $30 million to $40 million available.
It sounds decent, until you look at the magnitude of what they need to add to the roster.
Randy Arozarena, their most valuable player in 2026, is entering free agency and could command more than $100 million in total value. J.P. Crawford is also headed for the market. The Mariners need to replace proven offense, leadership and strengthen a bullpen that collapsed during the second half of the season. Oh, and they also need to hire a manager capable of making the roster function.
Thirty million can help. But it won't be enough to erase all of the problems.
Seattle appears to be clearing a substantial amount of salary, but most of that room will be consumed before Dipoto even begins to call agents.
The Mariners have 14 arbitration-eligible players, representing nearly 40 percent of the roster. Jude estimates that group will cost approximately $57.2 million. Logan Gilbert leads the class with a projected $15.4 million salary, followed by George Kirby at $9.8 million, Brendan Donovan at $6.1 million and Bryan Woo at $5.2 million.
Those are all substantial raises for bills that were bound to arrive after developing good talent. But ownership can't point to arbitration as though this was unexpected. The Mariners knew Gilbert, Kirby, Woo and the rest of this group would eventually become more expensive. A serious organization plans for that day and increases its investment before the roster begins shedding proven players.
The Mariners guaranteed salaries total $64.7 million. Andrs Muoz has an $8 million club option that should be one of the easiest decisions of the offseason, while the pre-arbitration group is projected to add another $6 million.
Despite how some feel about him, we have to be clear about what the Mariners would be losing in Arozarena. He's not a simple name to remove from the lineup. They would be losing its most productive batter from 2026 and asking an already weak offense to not only rebound, but to find those at-bats somewhere else.
One quality free-agent hitter could consume a large portion of the available annual payroll space. After that, Seattle would still have questions in the corner outfield, elsewhere in the lineup and across a pitching staff that needs reinforcing.
This is where the familiar Mariners bargain signing gets dangerous. Signing three limited players for the price of one impact hitter would fill out a roster, but it also creates another season of lineup shuffling. The Mariners need someone who could give the opposing pitchers a real fit. And that costs real money.
Dipoto has another lever, trading from the starting rotation. Gilbert's projected salary makes him the most obvious trade candidate, particularly because he's entering his final year of club control. Moving him would clear money and would most likely return an established hitter the team would desperately need.
The return has to justify losing one of their best starters, though. Saving $15.4 million isn't enough. Neither is a prospect-heavy package. If the Mariners trade Gilbert, they need an established, controllable impact bat who immediately changes the middle of the order.
The best solution is the most straightforward. Seattle's young core is becoming more expensive because it has become good. Julio Rodrguez, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Gilbert, Kirby and Woo give this organization the foundation it spent years promising to build. This is supposed to be the moment when ownership adds the right pieces around that group, not the moment when its salaries become justification for a quiet rebuild.
The Mariners may technically have $30 million to $40 million available. Given the state of the roster, that's closer to an entry fee than a finished offseason plan.
If ownership holds the line, Dipoto will have to be nearly perfect. If ownership wants this roster to become something more than interesting and incomplete, it needs to write larger checks this offseason.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/mlb/mariners/onsi as How Much Can the Mariners Actually Spend This Offseason? .
