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NBA's anti-tanking rules are not having the desired effect of making bad teams win more games
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- NBA's anti-tanking rules are not having the desired effect of making bad teams win more games
NBA's anti-tanking rules are not having the desired effect of making bad teams win more games originally appeared on The Sporting News . Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here .
Last summer, the NBA put forth a plan to aggressively curb tanking. A full third of the league was trying to lose games over the second half of the season, making those games unwatchable. Massive lottery reforms were enacted that removed incentives to be bad on purpose, with the hope that the worst teams could pull themselves up to competency.
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Many predicted that with every team now trying as hard as possible to win, we would see compressed standings where the best teams would win less, the worst teams would win more, and everyone would trend towards the middle.
Win percentage does start to stabilize around the eight game mark , but a lot can obviously still change with so much of the season left to play out. Given that caveat, it is still somewhat surprising that the opposite has happened. Rather than expanding, the middle has shrunk. Compared to this same time last year, there are more good teams. And the bad teams have been even worse this year than last.
The one-win club is not a good place to be in at the 10 percent mark. A year ago, three teams were in that group. This season, that number is up to six. The same holds true for teams with a double-digit negative net rating.
Losses have been more lopsided too. There have been more 15 and 20-point blowouts this year. The worst of the worst, the Bulls , have a -17.6 net rating that far exceeds the -11.6 put up by the Wizards at the same time last year.
| Nov. 5 2025 |
Nov. 5 2026 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Teams with 1 win |
3 |
6 |
| Teams with 2 wins |
2 |
2 |
| Teams with 3 wins |
7 |
3 |
| Teams with 4 wins |
5 |
7 |
| Teams with 5 wins |
9 |
2 |
| Teams with 6 wins |
2 |
7 |
| Teams with 7 wins |
1 |
2 |
| Teams with 8 wins |
1 |
1 |
Most of the tanking 10 from last year told themselves that they would get better once they stopped trying to lose. In reality, they probably would have lost a ton either way.
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It's still way too early to judge lottery reform. The end of the season will be better due to teams not resting their best healthy players quite as much or sitting them at the end of games. But the bad teams are still going to lose, and lose a lot. Help isn't coming in the lottery, and so many of those bottom-feeders will be stuck there indefinitely. The idea that they would simply pull themselves up due to new incentives is looking pretty flimsy.
Here's a case-by-case look at how expectations haven't met reality for that bottom 10.
MORE: No. 11 pick Yaxel Lendeborg leads SN's first rookie ladder
How lottery reform affected the tanking 10
Jazz
Last year: 3-5 | This year: 1-7
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The Jazz are the most disappointing team of this bunch. They were fined $500,000 last season because of how egregious their tanking was, sitting their stars during fourth quarters in the rare occasions that they did play. That was probably worth it, as they drafted Darryn Peterson No. 2 overall.
Many had Utah taking one of the biggest leaps in the league. Instead, they're tied for the worst record after eight games. Peterson has been up-and-down to start the year, struggling with his ability to get paint touches and handle the physicality of the league. The loss of Walker Kessler along with injuries to Jusuf Nurkic and Jaren Jackson Jr. have torpedoed their frontcourt depth. They also don't seem to have good chemistry in their backcourt between Peterson and Keyonte George.
Injuries have certainly played a role, but the Jazz have learned that winning is not as easy as flipping a switch.
Bulls
Last year: 6-1 | This year: 1-7
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The Bulls traded away most of their quality veterans at the 2026 trade deadline and finished on a 7-23 slide after that point. They look even worse this year.
Chicago's 1-7 record doesn't do justice to how bad they're playing. That one win came in a nail-biter against the equally bad Bucks . Excluding that win, they've played in one game within five points and been losing by an average of 21.6 points per game.
Many of Chicago's young players have regressed under new coach Tiago Splitter, including Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis. Caleb Wilson is the lone bright spot, but it is looking like it will take years to build a roster around him that can get out of the basement.
Bucks
Last year: 5-3 | This year: 1-7
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The Bucks were terrible in games without Giannis Antetokounmpo last season, so we knew that this was probably coming. They're another team that might be even worse than expected. They've gotten a disappointing regression from Ryan Rollins. Myles Turner hasn't been doing nearly enough. Kyle Kuzma has been possibly the worst starter in the league, living up to his preseason billing . On the plus side, Brayden Burries has looked promising.
Mikel Brown Jr.
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Nets
Last year: 1-7 | This year: 2-6
Aside from the bright play of Nolan Traore and some flashes from Mikel Brown Jr., the Nets have been a disaster this season. Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle were supposed to raise the floor, but they aren't fitting together. Day'Ron Sharpe doesn't look capable of starting games. Egor Demin hasn't taken the leap that he showed in Summer League. Brooklyn doesn't control its pick in the upcoming draft, furthering its incentive to win as much as possible. They're just plain bad.
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Kings
Last year: 3-5 | This year: 1-7
The Kings were trying to win games last year. They couldn't because they were a bad team that was badly coached and had terrible chemistry. A similar core is bringing the same results this year. The pieces don't fit well together, and Darius Acuff's volume scoring isn't enough to dig them out.
Pelicans
Last year: 2-6 | This year: 4-4
The Pelicans are a moderate success story among this group. They weren't trying to tank last season. The Hawks controlled their pick, and they were benching bad players like Jordan Poole to try and move up the standings.
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This season has been much brighter for the team. They're getting stronger play from second-year players Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen. They're currently riding a four-game winning streak that has them back to .500.
Pacers
Last year: 1-7 | This year: 3-6
The Pacers were cursed last year with injuries. The same thing is happening again this year. They played a game with only six players the other night. Tyrese Haliburton did look sharp before getting sidelined with a hamstring issue, and the team had a gritty win against the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. They're not in as bad of a situation as some of these other teams once Haliburton comes back.
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Mavericks
Last year: 2-6 | This year: 4-4
The Mavericks have dug themselves out of the bottom. They were badly missing Kyrie Irving last season, forcing Cooper Flagg into a lead playmaker role. Irving has returned, and Flagg has taken a major leap. Their role players have largely played better as well.
Wizards
Last year: 1-7 | This year: 4-4
The Wizards look like a totally different team with Trae Young at the helm. His passing has been outstanding. Anthony Davis has helped too, and AJ Dybantsa has been a scoring machine. Their plan to jump-start their rebuild, which I had a ton of skepticism about, looks like it is working extremely well.
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Grizzlies
Last year: 3-6 | This year: 6-2
The Grizzlies were taking tanking to the extreme last season, trading away their best players and sitting healthy players down the stretch of games. That kept them down to 25 wins and helped them get Cameron Boozer with the No. 3 pick.
They were always going to try to win this season anyway given that they don't control their pick, and they've skyrocketed up the standings. Ty Jerome looks like an All-Star, Boozer is a franchise forward, and they have great depth and young pieces that make them the biggest success story of these rebuilding teams.
