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Nebraska vs Washington Stats Review: Ten Points Won’t Win You Anything
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- Nebraska vs Washington Stats Review: Ten Points Won’t Win You Anything
Nebraska vs Washington ended 17-10, and Memorial Stadium let everyone know how it felt. Stuff came out of the stands and onto the field. I was there, and I don't think I've ever seen that place that angry. It went well past booing. People were upset, and plenty of them headed for the exits the moment Washington scored, because they'd seen this story before.
I said in the postgame reaction that I understood the anger. I didn't agree with throwing things, but I understood where it came from. Now that a few days have passed, here's what the numbers say.
Nebraska vs Washington: The Offensive Targets
At the start of the season, we set our targets at the top 25% nationally. For this offense, that means 32 points a game.
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Nebraska scored 10.
I thought the offense would be the strength of this team. Here's how it measured up against Washington:
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Points:10 (target: 32)
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Yards per play:5.2
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Yards per pass attempt:5.8
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Explosive plays:7
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Third down:7 of 13, the one situational target we hit
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Sacks allowed:2
The red zone numbers are bad enough that all I can do is sigh. Nebraska culture has turned me into an Oscar-level sigher.
Most of the explosive plays came in the first half, and somehow that turned into only seven points. In the second half they mostly dried up. Washington, meanwhile, got its big plays right at the end, when they counted most.
29 Runs, 44 Passes
This is the stat that bothers me most.
Jamal Rule ran 13 times for 72 yards, 5.5 yards a carry, with a long of 20. The run game was working. Nebraska ran 132 yards on the ground and threw for 255, but look at how the plays split: 29 carries and 44 pass attempts.
I don't understand that. I really don't.
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Remember the Indiana game? Nebraska lost it at the end, but the offense stayed on schedule. It moved the chains, ate the clock and kept the defense rested. Against Washington, the ball seemed to stop going to Jamal Rule from the first quarter into the third. From the stands, it looked like there wasn't a plan.
The Defense Did Its Job, Mostly
Washington scored on a 50-yard field goal, a 25-yard touchdown catch, and a pick-six. The defense allowed 17 points and hit its target. Washington never got into the red zone. Its offensive touchdown came from outside the 20.
The miss that cost the most was takeaways. Nebraska had none and gave the ball away three times. A 3-0 turnover margin will lose you most games. The one time the defense did come up with a takeaway, a penalty took it away.
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Then there's the corner blitz. Washington faced fourth-and-long late in the fourth quarter. Nebraska sent the corner, Demond Williams Jr. escaped, and Washington moved the chains. Shortly after, on a 25-yard touchdown pass to Chris Lawson, the defender left alone on the play missed the tackle, and that was the lead.
Defensive coordinator Rob Aurich gave a good press conference this week and explained the call with analytics. I don't totally agree with him. If analytics ran everything, nobody would ever punt on fourth down.
Special teams were the one bright spot. Archie Wilson hit the net punting target. He was the Ray Guy punter of the week, and in my terms, he was the player of the game.
The Penalties
From where I sat, people were yelling about calls made and calls missed all night. And no, I'm not watching this game again. Once was enough.
Here are the penalties that hurt most:
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Offsideswiped out Caleb Benning's interception
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Holdingwiped out Owen Stoudmire's sack
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Pass interferencelate in the game
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Delay of gamebacked Nebraska up from the 5 to the 10
That delay of game sequence is the one I keep coming back to. The whole drive fell apart after it. I still think that sequence will eventually cost somebody their job. Maybe not right away, but it says a lot about where this offense is in 2026.
What's Wrong With the Offense?
After the game, I said somebody had to be fired. More specifically, I said Matt Rhule should fire himself from his headset.
To show where Nebraska stands, I charted every Big Ten team's offensive touchdowns over the last three games. I left out pick-sixes, return scores and overtime so everyone is compared evenly. Nebraska ranks 15th. Indiana and Minnesota are down there too, though Indiana has figured out how to win games late.
Northwestern is first with 10 offensive touchdowns in three games.
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Northwestern. A team that isn't spending $100 million on NIL. Chip Kelly is calling plays there, and they're running wing-T concepts and odd old formations, including a Lonesome Polecat look straight out of the 1950s.
Are they searching for points? NO. THEY'VE FIGURED THAT OUT AHEAD OF TIME.
Nebraska, meanwhile, has a defense good enough to win these games, and an offense that keeps coming up short.
Searching for Points in the Press Box
Dana Holgorsen will call plays from the press box against Illinois. His explanation this week was that Nebraska is "searching for a few more points." He also said the offense was pressing against Washington.
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I suggested the press box in my postgame video, so I'm not going to argue with the move. My understanding is that offensive line coach Geep Wade and safeties coach Tyler Yelk are headed up there too.
Here's what I hope happens up there. Nebraska gets to the 5-yard line. Geep leans over and suggests a big, heavy power set, maybe with a couple of defensive linemen in it. I am guessing that Tyler Yelk is there to keep things reasonable, as in, maybe Geep and Dana may get into arguments about what plays to call. Maybe like runs.
I like Dana Holgorsen. I've liked his offenses for years. But he needs to be searching for points right now, on Thursday morning, before he ever climbs into that press box.
Nebraska vs Illinois Prediction
Nebraska plays at Illinois on Friday night. I'll be at another wedding in Texas, but at least it's not Friday night, so I get to watch.
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Here's what I expect from Illinois. They'll do what every team has done to Nebraska since Indiana: stack the box.Then the pressure falls on Anthony Colandrea, who presses and throws deep balls that get picked off when the short, underneath throws were there for first downs.
Matt Rhule said this one will come down to the wire.Somebody on Twitter got mad about that, but he's right. These teams are comparable. Illinois doesn't have a great defense and doesn't have the money for one. I like what Bret Bielema does on offense, especially the misdirection. If I were sitting in that press box, I'd tell Dana to misdirect everything.
People keep asking what Nebraska's identity is. It used to be outside zone and G counter. RPOs don't seem to be Colandrea's strength. Building a real identity is hard right now, because rosters turn over every year and nobody gets the time to build a system the way programs used to.
My prediction: Illinois 24, Nebraska 17.That's about what this offense has been scoring. If DANA is successful in his search for points, this could turn around! Maybe Aurich's defense gets a pick-six, maybe the Huskers steal it 24-21.
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Where This Season Goes From Here
I don't want Matt Rhule fired. I don't want Dana Holgorsen fired. And I definitely don't want Rob Aurich leaving. I think this team is better than what it's putting on the field, and the practice reports this week were good.
I want this to work. I don't want to go through another coaching search and hear about how the new guy is going to change everything.
But Nebraska started this season 5-0. A loss Friday makes it 5-4. Unless the press box move turns into 30 points against Illinois, I don't see much changing over the rest of the season.
I hope I'm wrong about Friday night.
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Dana, start searching for points. Right now.
Go Big Red.
