NFL playoff picture Week 15: Bucs' loss to Falcons pushes Panthers atop NFC South

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NFL playoff picture Week 15: Bucs' loss to Falcons pushes Panthers atop NFC South

Nate Davis, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Fri, Dec 12, 2025 ·

8 min read

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Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season , USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL 's ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday's and Thursday's games or Saturday's, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we'll be watching then, too).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 4.

Here's where things stand with Week 15 now underway:

Week 6: Washington Commanders wide receiver Chris Moore (19) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the "Monday Night Football" game against the Chicago Bears at Northwest Stadium. The Commanders wore their all-black alternate uniforms for the game.
(Peter Casey, Imagn Images)

Week 6: Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) carries the ball for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons played the game while sporting throwback uniforms that harken back to the team's inaugural season of 1966.
(Brett Davis, Imagn Images)

Week 6: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen operates at the line of scrimmage before a play against the Atlanta Falcons during a "Monday Night Football" game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Bills wore throwback uniforms reminiscent of the team's look from 1962-1973 during the game.
(Brett Davis, Imagn Images)

Week 6: Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young looks for a receiver against the Dallas Cowboys at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers wore this uniform combination for the first time in the 30-27 win.
(Cory Knowlton, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel makes a catch against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. The Bills wore their new "Rivalries" uniform for the "Sunday Night Football" game, which the Patriots won, 23-20 .

(Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray makes a throw during the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at State Farm Stadium. The Cardinals wore their all-black uniforms, but were defeated 22-21.
(Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield awaits the snap against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Both teams wore throwback uniforms in the Buccaneers' 38-35 win. The Buccaneers and Seahawks entered the NFL together as expansion teams in 1976.

(Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tory Horton (15) is congratulated by teammate AJ Barner (88) after catching a touchdown pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Lumen Field. The Seahawks wore throwback uniforms harkening back to the team's original look from 1976-2001.
(Steven Bisig, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Los Angeles Chargers running back Omarion Hampton (8) runs against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter at SoFi Stadium. The Chargers wore monochrome powder blue uniform pants and jerseys for the first time.
(Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images)

Week 5: New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (5) is tackled by the Dallas Cowboys' Trevon Diggs (7) and Juanyeh Thomas (2) during the first half at MetLife Stadium. The Cowboys wore their "Arctic White" uniforms for the 37-22 win.
(Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images)

Week 5: New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields stands in the pocket against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half at MetLife Stadium. The Jets wore their all-black uniforms in the 37-22 loss.
(Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Week 4: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) hands the ball off to running back J.K. Dobbins during the "Monday Night Football" game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Empower Field at Mile High. The Broncos wore their "Midnight Navy" uniforms for the 28-3 win .

(Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images)

Week 4: Miami Dolphins running back De'von Achane rushes the ball against the New York Jets during a 27-21 win on "Monday Night Football" at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins wore their new their Nike "Rivalries" uniforms – the team version dubbed "Dark Waters."

(Rich Storry, Imagn Images)

Week 4: The Arizona Cardinals defense tackles Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tory Horton (15) during the first quarter of a "Thursday Night Football" game at State Farm Stadium. The Cardinals became the first NFL team to wear the new Nike "Rivalries" uniform in a game. The Seahawks won the game, 23-20 .

(Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens tight end Charlie Kolar (88) makes a catch during his team's "Monday Night Football" game against the Detroit Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens wore their all-black uniforms for the game dubbed, "Darkness Falls." Despite the fancy marketing moniker, the Ravens were defeated, 38-30.
(Mitch Stringer, Imagn Images)

Week 3: New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (5) stiff arms Seattle Seahawks linebacker Tyrice Knight (48) during the second quarter at Lumen Field. The Saints wore their all-white uniform and helmet combo for the first time in the 44-13 loss.

(Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images)

Week 3: San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey carries the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers wore throwback jerseys - an homage to the team's 1950s look, as well as its 1994 Super Bowl-winning season - in the 16-15 win against the Cardinals.

(Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images)

Week 3: New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium. New England brought out its iconic "Pat Patriot" throwback in the 21-14 defeat.
(Paul Rutherford, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) runs with the ball as New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner attempts to make the tackle during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers wore their famous "Creamsicle" throwback uniforms in the 29-27 win.
(Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Huntington Bank Field. The Browns debuted their "Alpha Dawg" alternate uniform for the 13-10 win.
(Ken Blaze, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jourdan Lewis (2) celebrates after making an interception in the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at EverBank Stadium. The Jaguars wore their "Prowler Throwbacks" - an homage to the team's late-1990s heyday - for the 17-10 win.
(Morgan Tencza, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Carolina Panthers tight end JaTavion Saunders runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers wore their special black helmets in the 30-0 win.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

Week 2: Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium. Sporting "The Vikings Classic" throwback uniform inspired by the team's look during the 1960s and '70s, Minnesota was defeated, 22-6.

(Jeffrey Becker, Imagn Images)

Week 2: The Green Bay Packers' Micah Parsons (1) reacts during a "Thursday Night Football" game against the Washington Commanders at Lambeau Field. The Packers wore their "Winter Warning" uniforms for the 27-18 win.
(Jeff Hanisch, Imagn Images)

Week 1: New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara scores a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals at Caesars Superdome. The Saints wore their reimagined "Gameday Gold" uniforms for their season opener, marking the first time the team wore gold jerseys since the 2002 season. The Cardinals defeated the Saints, 20-13.
(Stephen Lew, Imagn Images)

NFC playoff picture

1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3), NFC West leaders: They've regained the inside track for home-field advantage and a first-round bye by demolishing the Cardinals and benefiting from Chicago 's loss to Green Bay in Week 14. The Rams' Week 11 defeat of Seattle currently remains pivotal. Beat Detroit on Sunday, and a playoff spot is secured. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions , at Seahawks , at Falcons , vs. Cardinals

2. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1), NFC North leaders: They're back on top of the division and just a half-game off the conference pace. But the Pack would need to beat Denver and for the Rams and Seahawks to lose in order to rise to the top spot Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Broncos , at Bears , vs. Ravens , at Vikings

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5), NFC East leaders: Three losses in a row not only mean a lot more scrutiny but − beware − a team that could still fall into the Cowboys' clutches in the division if it's not careful ... though Vegas should be a get-right game. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders , at Commanders , at Bills , vs. Commanders

4. Carolina Panthers (7-6), NFC South leaders: Coming out of their bye week, the Panthers pulled even atop the division over the weekend after the Bucs lost to New Orleans and then took outright possession Thursday night with Tampa Bay 's collapse to Atlanta . But Carolina and the Buccaneers will decide this on the field with two meetings between Weeks 16 and 18. Remaining schedule: at Saints , vs. Buccaneers , vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers

5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3), wild card No. 1: Sunday's rout of Atlanta moved them atop the conference ... for a few hours. But the Rams' win at Arizona pushed Seattle back to the wild-card echelon. All three of the 'Hawks' losses are against NFC opponents, including two in the division − defeats that don't serve them well in tiebreaker scenarios. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts , vs. Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers

6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4), wild card No. 2: They're in a precarious spot given their pursuers, yet are just behind the Rams and Seahawks for the NFC West lead as well. A two-week spin through the AFC South shouldn't hurt. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, at Colts , vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks

7. Chicago Bears (9-4), wild card No. 3: How tightly packed is the NFC? One narrow Week 14 loss dropped the Bears from first place in the conference to seventh, just a game ahead of the division rival Lions. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns , vs. Packers, at 49ers, vs. Lions

8. Detroit Lions (8-5), in the hunt: They're within a game of the NFC's final wild-card spot and in striking range of first place in the NFC North ... even as they sit outside the NFC bracket at present. Remaining schedule: at Rams, vs. Steelers , at Vikings, at Bears

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7), in the hunt: A fifth loss in their past six games drops them to .500 and into ninth place in the conference. But beat Carolina twice, and the Bucs will still win the NFC South. A 5-5 mark in NFC games keeps Tampa Bay ahead of Dallas on the tiebreaker front. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Dolphins , vs. Panthers

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1), in the hunt: Dallas' best bet now is probably hoping that the Eagles continue to struggle and leave the NFC East in play, the Cowboys' chances to qualify creeping up to 10% on Monday, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, vs. Chargers , at Commanders, at Giants

Week 1: Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (18) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. The play was originally ruled an incomplete pass, but the call was overturned. Despite TeSlaa's effort, the Packers won the game 27-13.

(Jeff Hanisch, Imagn Images)

Week 1: The New England Patriots' Robert Spillane (14) and Christian Elliss (53) tackle Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer (87) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. The Raiders won the game, 20-13.
(Bob DeChiara, Imagn Images)

Week 1: New York Giants quarterback Russell Wilson (3) fumbles the ball on a tackle by Washington Commanders safety Will Harris (3) during the first quarter at Northwest Stadium. It was a rough Giants debut for Wilson (17 of 37 passing for 168 yards) as the Commanders won the game, 21-6.
(Peter Casey, Imagn Images)

Week 1: Fireworks go off before the NFL Kickoff Game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles opened the season with a 24-20 victory over their longtime NFC East rivals.
(Eric Hartline, Imagn Images)

AFC playoff picture

1. Denver Broncos (11-2), AFC West leaders: They've won 10 in a row, matched New England 's victory total and overtook the Patriots for possession of the top seed last weekend by virtue of a conference record (7-2) that is a half-game better. But Denver has a much tougher finishing stretch. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars , at Chiefs , vs. Chargers

2. New England Patriots (11-2), AFC East leaders: The first team in the league to reach 11 wins thanks to Week 13's rollover of the Giants , the Pats remain in a very tight race with Denver, the teams' airtight tiebreakers now in effect following the Patriots' off week. New England will officially wrap up its division by sweeping the Bills on Sunday. Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Ravens , at Jets , vs. Dolphins

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4), AFC South leaders: They claimed first place outright by smashing the depleted Colts on Sunday in Duval County. The Texans now loom as the bona fide threat. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Broncos, vs. Colts, at Titans

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6), AFC North leaders: They jumped up five spots, from out of the field back into the division lead by winning at Baltimore on Sunday. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns , vs. Ravens

5. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4), wild card No. 1: They've won five of six after surviving the Eagles on Monday night. A one-win advantage in AFC games (7-2) moved them ahead of Buffalo. Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos

6. Buffalo Bills (9-4), wild card No. 2: Massive win over Cincinnati solidified their playoff standing heading into a notable showdown at Foxborough in Week 15 to face the AFC East-leading Pats. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets

7. Houston Texans (8-5), wild card No. 3: They've won six of seven, including five in a row. Beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead moved Houston into a wild-card slot by virtue of its Week 13 defeat of Indianapolis . Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Raiders , at Chargers, vs. Colts

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5), in the hunt: Now out of the projected playoff field and maybe soon in the hands of 44-year-old QB Philip Rivers , they face a steep climb back to relevance − their 7-1 start already starting to seem like ancient history. And the Colts' schedule doesn't let up the rest of the way. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans

9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7), in the hunt: Consecutive losses − and to AFC North foes ( Bengals , Steelers) − has them on the outside looking in. At least a 4-5 record in AFC games places them ahead of K.C. and Miami in the three-way tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers

10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7), in the hunt: Their chances to win a 10th straight AFC West title are officially null and void. And Sunday night's loss to Houston means they'll likely miss the postseason for the first time since 2014 − Andy Reid's second year in K.C. And don't forget they've lost to the Broncos, Chargers, Bills, Texans and Jags, who are all ahead of them. Lose to the Bolts on Sunday, and the Chiefs could be eliminated. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Titans, vs. Broncos, at Raiders

11. Miami Dolphins (6-7), in the hunt: They probably need to win the remainder of their games to even have a shot at postseason qualification but notched another one Sunday in New York. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, vs. Bengals, vs. Buccaneers, at Patriots

12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9), in the hunt: They basically need to win the remainder of their games to even have a shot at postseason qualification ... though they probably have a better one than Miami by virtue of living in this year's surprisingly subpar AFC North. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Dolphins, vs. Cardinals, vs. Browns

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 15

Denver clinches a playoff berth with:

Win OR
Houston loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie (but not if both teams tie) OR
There are also multiple scenarios that involve a Broncos tie combined with losses and/or ties by other teams

New England clinches AFC East title with:

▶ Win

New England clinches playoff berth with:

Houston loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie (but not if both teams tie) OR
There are also multiple scenarios that involve a Patriots tie combined with losses and/or ties by other teams

Los Angeles Rams clinch a playoff berth with:

▶ Win