NFL playoff picture Week 17: Falcons' upset of Rams is bad news for Buccaneers

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NFL playoff picture Week 17: Falcons' upset of Rams is bad news for Buccaneers

Nate Davis, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Sun, Dec 28, 2025 ·

7 min read

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Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season , USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL 's ever-evolving playoff picture – typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday's and Thursday's games or Saturday's, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we'll be watching then, too).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized Sunday, Jan. 4.

Here's where things stand with Week 17 complete:

Week 1: Detroit Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (18) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. The play was originally ruled an incomplete pass, but the call was overturned. Despite TeSlaa's effort, the Packers won the game 27-13.

(Jeff Hanisch, Imagn Images)

Week 1: The New England Patriots' Robert Spillane (14) and Christian Elliss (53) tackle Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer (87) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. The Raiders won the game, 20-13.
(Bob DeChiara, Imagn Images)

Week 1: New York Giants quarterback Russell Wilson (3) fumbles the ball on a tackle by Washington Commanders safety Will Harris (3) during the first quarter at Northwest Stadium. It was a rough Giants debut for Wilson (17 of 37 passing for 168 yards) as the Commanders won the game, 21-6.
(Peter Casey, Imagn Images)

Week 1: Fireworks go off before the NFL Kickoff Game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles opened the season with a 24-20 victory over their longtime NFC East rivals.
(Eric Hartline, Imagn Images)

AFC playoff picture

y − 1. Denver Broncos (13-3), AFC West champions: After surviving the Chiefs on Christmas night , win in Week 18, and Denver gets the top seed. The Bolts' loss Saturday wrapped up the Broncos ' first division title in a decade − which was also the last time they won the Super Bowl. Remaining schedule:vs. Chargers

y − 2. New England Patriots (13-3), AFC East champions: After blowing out the Jets on Sunday, they wound up with their first division title since 2019 after Buffalo lost to Philadelphia . The Pats are just a tiebreaker (common games) of sitting atop the conference and could get the top seed in Week 18 if they win and Denver loses. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins .

x − 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4), AFC South leaders: They won their eighth straight but need one more to lock up the division. A victory combined with defeats for Denver and New England lands the No. 1 seed in Duval County. Lose, and Houston can keep the AFC South with a win. Remaining schedule: at Titans

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7), AFC North leaders: They failed to win the division crown at Cleveland . Now they'll have to beat Baltimore in Week 18. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens

x − 5. Houston Texans (11-5), wild card No. 1: They've won nine of 10, including eight in a row after Saturday's triumph over the Chargers , but haven't been able to overtake similarly surging Jacksonville yet for the top spot in the AFC South. Still, Saturday's victory over the Bolts clinched at least a wild-card berth for Houston, which has a shot to win the division for a third straight season − now needing just a Week 18 win and loss by the Jags. The Texans ' victory officially eliminated Indianapolis . Their sweep of the Chargers and Bills currently has them sitting in the fifth seed. Remaining schedule:vs. Colts

x − 6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5), wild card No. 2: Saturday's stumble against Houston ended their bid to rally for the AFC West title. Now the Bolts will have to chart their postseason path as a wild-card entrant, which is why QB Justin Herbert won't play in Week 18. Remaining schedule:at Broncos

x − 7. Buffalo Bills (11-5), wild card No. 3: Sunday's oh-so-narrow loss to Philadelphia wiped out their hopes of a sixth straight AFC East title. The Bills fall to the seventh spot due to the Chargers' two-game advantage (5-1) in the common-games tiebreaker. Remaining schedule:vs. Jets

9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8), in the hunt:(The eliminated Colts are technically in eighth place in the AFC.) Saturday night's win in Green Bay plus Pittsburgh's loss means the Steelers and Ravens will vie for the AFC North crown on Sunday night. Remaining schedule: at Steelers

Week 6: Washington Commanders wide receiver Chris Moore (19) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the "Monday Night Football" game against the Chicago Bears at Northwest Stadium. The Commanders wore their all-black alternate uniforms for the game.
(Peter Casey, Imagn Images)

Week 6: Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) carries the ball for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons played the game while sporting throwback uniforms that harken back to the team's inaugural season of 1966.
(Brett Davis, Imagn Images)

Week 6: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen operates at the line of scrimmage before a play against the Atlanta Falcons during a "Monday Night Football" game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Bills wore throwback uniforms reminiscent of the team's look from 1962-1973 during the game.
(Brett Davis, Imagn Images)

Week 6: Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young looks for a receiver against the Dallas Cowboys at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers wore this uniform combination for the first time in the 30-27 win.
(Cory Knowlton, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Buffalo Bills wide receiver Curtis Samuel makes a catch against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. The Bills wore their new "Rivalries" uniform for the "Sunday Night Football" game, which the Patriots won, 23-20 .

(Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray makes a throw during the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at State Farm Stadium. The Cardinals wore their all-black uniforms, but were defeated 22-21.
(Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield awaits the snap against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Both teams wore throwback uniforms in the Buccaneers' 38-35 win. The Buccaneers and Seahawks entered the NFL together as expansion teams in 1976.

(Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tory Horton (15) is congratulated by teammate AJ Barner (88) after catching a touchdown pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Lumen Field. The Seahawks wore throwback uniforms harkening back to the team's original look from 1976-2001.
(Steven Bisig, Imagn Images)

Week 5: Los Angeles Chargers running back Omarion Hampton (8) runs against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter at SoFi Stadium. The Chargers wore monochrome powder blue uniform pants and jerseys for the first time.
(Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images)

Week 5: New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (5) is tackled by the Dallas Cowboys' Trevon Diggs (7) and Juanyeh Thomas (2) during the first half at MetLife Stadium. The Cowboys wore their "Arctic White" uniforms for the 37-22 win.
(Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images)

Week 5: New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields stands in the pocket against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half at MetLife Stadium. The Jets wore their all-black uniforms in the 37-22 loss.
(Robert Deutsch, Imagn Images)

Week 4: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) hands the ball off to running back J.K. Dobbins during the "Monday Night Football" game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Empower Field at Mile High. The Broncos wore their "Midnight Navy" uniforms for the 28-3 win .

(Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images)

Week 4: Miami Dolphins running back De'von Achane rushes the ball against the New York Jets during a 27-21 win on "Monday Night Football" at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins wore their new their Nike "Rivalries" uniforms – the team version dubbed "Dark Waters."

(Rich Storry, Imagn Images)

Week 4: The Arizona Cardinals defense tackles Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tory Horton (15) during the first quarter of a "Thursday Night Football" game at State Farm Stadium. The Cardinals became the first NFL team to wear the new Nike "Rivalries" uniform in a game. The Seahawks won the game, 23-20 .

(Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Baltimore Ravens tight end Charlie Kolar (88) makes a catch during his team's "Monday Night Football" game against the Detroit Lions at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens wore their all-black uniforms for the game dubbed, "Darkness Falls." Despite the fancy marketing moniker, the Ravens were defeated, 38-30.
(Mitch Stringer, Imagn Images)

Week 3: New Orleans Saints running back Kendre Miller (5) stiff arms Seattle Seahawks linebacker Tyrice Knight (48) during the second quarter at Lumen Field. The Saints wore their all-white uniform and helmet combo for the first time in the 44-13 loss.

(Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images)

Week 3: San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey carries the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers wore throwback jerseys - an homage to the team's 1950s look, as well as its 1994 Super Bowl-winning season - in the 16-15 win against the Cardinals.

(Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images)

Week 3: New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (85) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium. New England brought out its iconic "Pat Patriot" throwback in the 21-14 defeat.
(Paul Rutherford, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) runs with the ball as New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner attempts to make the tackle during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers wore their famous "Creamsicle" throwback uniforms in the 29-27 win.
(Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during the fourth quarter at Huntington Bank Field. The Browns debuted their "Alpha Dawg" alternate uniform for the 13-10 win.
(Ken Blaze, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jourdan Lewis (2) celebrates after making an interception in the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at EverBank Stadium. The Jaguars wore their "Prowler Throwbacks" - an homage to the team's late-1990s heyday - for the 17-10 win.
(Morgan Tencza, Imagn Images)

Week 3: Carolina Panthers tight end JaTavion Saunders runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers wore their special black helmets in the 30-0 win.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

Week 2: Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium. Sporting "The Vikings Classic" throwback uniform inspired by the team's look during the 1960s and '70s, Minnesota was defeated, 22-6.

(Jeffrey Becker, Imagn Images)

Week 2: The Green Bay Packers' Micah Parsons (1) reacts during a "Thursday Night Football" game against the Washington Commanders at Lambeau Field. The Packers wore their "Winter Warning" uniforms for the 27-18 win.
(Jeff Hanisch, Imagn Images)

Week 1: New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara scores a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals at Caesars Superdome. The Saints wore their reimagined "Gameday Gold" uniforms for their season opener, marking the first time the team wore gold jerseys since the 2002 season. The Cardinals defeated the Saints, 20-13.
(Stephen Lew, Imagn Images)

NFC playoff picture

x − 1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3), NFC West leaders: Win in Week 18, and they secure the division and NFC's top seed. Remaining schedule: at 49ers

y − 2. Chicago Bears (11-5), NFC North champions: Green Bay 's loss Saturday night was doubly sweet, as it also wrapped up the division title for Da Bears . However coming up short in Sunday night's thriller at San Francisco means Chicago can't get home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions

y − 3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), NFC East champions:They can't get into the top spot but could still reach the second seed ... which got them to the Super Bowl last season. With Week 16's defeat of Washington , Philly became the first team this season to wrap up a division in 2025 − and the first to win this division in successive years since they last did it 21 years ago. Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders

4. Carolina Panthers (8-8), NFC South leaders: They blew an opportunity to wrap up the division Sunday. A Week 18 defeat of Tampa Bay will still do the job. Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers

x − 5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4), wild card No. 1: Win out, which would entail completing a season sweep of Seattle, and the Niners would get the top seed. Continue winning, and they won't leave their building again this season − which would mean playing Super Bowl 60 at Levi's Stadium. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks

x − 6. Los Angeles Rams (11-5), wild card No. 2: They became the first team this season to clinch a playoff spot but lost the pathway to home-field advantage and a first-round bye after consecutive losses. They can settle into the fifth seed − and a matchup with the NFC South champion − by beating Arizona if Seattle also wins. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals

x − 7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1), wild card No. 3: The Lions' Christmas defeat put the battered Pack into the field . But Saturday night's loss to Baltimore means Green Bay locks in as the No. 7 seed and won't play another game at Lambeau Field this season. Remaining schedule: at Vikings

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9), in the hunt: (Their record is actually worse than the Vikings', Lions' and Cowboys ' in the overall NFC standings − those three clubs all with eight losses − hence the 11th place designation for Tampa Bay.) A loss to lowly Miami would have done them in ... had the Panthers not bailed the Bucs out by also losing in Week 17. Now the teams will face off Saturday, the winner taking the NFC South crown − assuming Atlanta loses its final game to the Saints. If all three clubs finish 8-9 , the tiebreaker would go to Carolina given the Panthers' 3-1 record against the other two squads would confer priority. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers