Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

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Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

Vaughn Dalzell · NBC Sports

Fri, October 30, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC ·

8 min read

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#5 Notre Dame (6-1) and Navy (2-5) meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, on NBC and Peacock to kick off the Saturday slate. Notre Dame is coming off its first loss of the season to BYU (28-24), whereas Navy has lost two straight games and five of its past six entering this contest.

The Irish had a chance to upset BYU on the final play, but CJ Carrcould not convert from nine yards out. Notre Dame had a bye week to soak in the loss and turn their attention to Navy, and likely their next opponent on Nov. 7: #1 Miami. This is a look-ahead spot for the Irish, but historically they have dominated service academies. Notre Dame has won the last four versus service academies by a margin of 191-41. Notre Dame has scored at least 37 points in five out of seven games this season and held five opponents to 13 or fewer points. PFF ranks Notre Dame as the second-best offense and fourth-best defense. Navy comes in at 101st and 113th on defense.

Navy has scored at least 34 points in three straight games for the best stretch of the season, but only one effort has resulted in a win. The Midshipmen's offense runs through Jackson Gutierrez, who's had 599 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, plus 348 passing yards, four touchdowns, and one interception in the past three games. Gutierrez will be the biggest challenge for Notre Dame, but Navy hasn't played a P4 opponent this season, so Gutierrez and the Midshipmen offense will be up against a brick wall.

Let's dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Notre Dame vs Navy

Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM Eastern
Site: Gillette Stadium
City: Foxborough, MA
TV/Streaming: NBC | Peacock

Game Odds for Notre Dame vs Navy

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings :

Moneyline: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6500), Navy Midshipmen (+2000)
Spread: Notre Dame -30.5 (-110)
Total: 56.5 points

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2026 Record: 6-1
Offensive Points Per Game: 41.1 (5th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 13.4 (T-4th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 41st
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 47th

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense:

The Notre Dame offense had its worst performance of the season in the loss to BYU with 24 points, 376 yards, 8-of-19 on third downs, and 3.8 yards per rush. There was a lot to build off in that performance, and luckily Navy is a good opponent to do that. The Irish won 49-10 last season and posted 502 yards of offense, 6.6 yards per rush, and 13.3 yards per pass. With Miami awaiting in the wings, Notre Dame will likely gas Navy up in the first half. The Irish average an NCAA-best 25.0 first-half points per game.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: QB CJ Carr

CJ Carrhad the first game of his career without a passing or rushing touchdown in the loss to BYU. I fully expect some quick scoring drives and deep shots from Carr early here as a prep game for Miami on Nov. 7. Carr threw for three touchdowns and completed 13 of 16 passes for 218 yards versus Navy last year. I would expect something similar, and he may throw fewer passes this time around.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense:

Notre Dame will have its run defense on display versus Navy after BYU ran for 4.0 yards per carry and held Bear Bachmeierto 3.5 ypc. Navy naturally runs a different offense than BYU, but Notre Dame has the talent to take the quarterback out of the running game. Boubacar Traoreand the Irish front seven will have a bounce-back game here, and if Navy wants to throw, they'll likely be reminded why they averaged 2.2 yards per completion last year.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Defense: CB Leonard Moore

Leonard Mooremade his return from injury against BYU last week, recording five tackles and one pass breakup. Moore won't be tested much in this game, but it will be a great testament to his run-stopping ability. Moore should have plenty of opportunities for TFLs against Navy. Moore had an interception and two tackles against Navy in 2024 and two tackles in 2025.

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Navy Midshipmen

Head Coach: Brian Newberry
2026 Record: 2-5 (1-4)
Offensive Points Per Game: 29.7 (64th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 29.1 (107th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 121st
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 58th

The Navy Midshipmen Offense:

The Navy offense has been reliant on QB Jackson Gutierrez. He leads the team with 151 carries on the year, and the next three highest are 81, 49, and 42 attempts. No one has more than 10 receptions, and Gutierrez has a 50% completion percentage this year. As you'd expect, Navy is dependent on the run. The Midshipmen average 50.7 rushing attempts per game (4th), 274.7 rushing yards (3rd), and 77.6% of their plays are runs (3rd-most). Notre Dame owns the 15th-ranked rushing grade per PFF, which will be put to the test.

Navy Player to Watch on Offense: QB Jackson Gutierrez

Jackson Gutierrezis playing his best ball of the season. Gutierrez has 947 total yards and 12 total touchdowns over the past three games. It feels like he is the whole offense, as he's carried the ball 88 times in that stretch. He had 41 carries in the 34-26 win over Tulsa alone. Gutierrez hasn't thrown more than 10 passes in three games, and I'd expect that to happen here. Gutierrez has a 50% completion percentage this year and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio.

The Navy Midshipmen Defense:

While the offense has been hot, the Navy defense has been cold. The Midshipmen have surrendered 26, 38, and 49 points over the last three games and given up an average of 440.6 yards per game. Navy ranks 134th out of 138 teams in coverage grades and 133rd in pressure grades, per PFF. It could be a long day for the Navy defense if Notre Dame treats them as a tune-up.

Navy Player to Watch on Defense: LB MarcAnthony Parker

MarcAnthony Parkeris second on Navy with 48 tackles and leads the team with four sacks despite not recording a sack in four consecutive games. Parker had eight tackles last week and his first pass break-up of the season. He has four games of at least eight tackles this season and will be one of the few guys Notre Dame will have to keep an eye on.

Notre Dame and Navy Stats, Betting Trends

Notre Dame trends

Notre Dame is 4-3 ATS and 5-2 to the Over
Notre Dame is 11-1 on the ML and 10-2 ATS since 2021 on a neutral site
Notre Dame is to the 8-4 to the Over since 2021 on a neutral site
Notre Dame is 7-3 to the Over coming off a loss since 2021
Notre Dame is 6-4 ATS and 8-2 on the ML coming off a loss since 2021
Notre Dame is 44-8 on the ML and 32-19-1 ATS as a favorite since 2021
Notre Dame is 32-20 to the Over as a favorite since 2021

Navy trends

Navy is 2-5 ATS and 5-2 to the Over this season
Navy is 1-2 ATS and 2-1 to the Over as an underdog
Navy is 4-2-1 to the Under on a neutral site since 2023
Navy is and 3-4 ATS on a neutral site since 2023
Navy is 9-10 ATS and 9-9-1 to the Over as an underdog since 2023

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes Notre Dame to cover the -7.5 in the first quarter:

"In the last four meetings versus service academies, Notre Dame has routed them 191-41 and won all four by at least 35 points. The Irish should do the same here off a bye week and a loss. It's a great setup for Notre Dame despite it being a look-ahead spot with #1 Miami on deck. The Irish jumped out to a 14-point first-quarter lead in three out of four versus those service academies, putting value on the -7.5 at +130 odds. I like Notre Dame to cover the first quarter; lean the same for the first half and full game. Notre Dame should dictate the score; winning by 20, 30, or 40-plus will be up to them. The Irish average an NCAA-best 25.0 first half points per game too. Navy could get shut out or not score until the second half. I'd look at Notre Dame to cover the first quarter or first half."

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