While some New York Yankees fans were not thrilled with Gerrit Cole getting the start in Game 1 of the American League Division Series, a team insider explains why science actually played a key role in the decision.
This week, to the enjoyment of Yankees fans around the world, the Bronx Bombers embarrassed division rivals the Boston Red Sox in their Wild Card Series. In the two-game sweep, they outscored Boston 18-2. However, the performance of their starters was the biggest standout, as Cy Young contender Cam Schlittler and 2025 ace Max Fried were outstanding.
Following the Game 2 win on Wednesday, many around the team expected Carlos Rodon to get the start in Game 1 of the ALDS versus another division rival, the Tampa Bay Rays . While he only made 16 starts in 2026, the lefty had his best season yet in the Bronx as he went 7-3 with a 2.67 ERA. Cole was solid in 2026, but his 3.61 ERA was his highest in nine years. However, Rodon won't get the ball on Saturday night.
Manager Aaron Boone confirmed on Friday that Cole will be on the mound in Tampa at 6:30 PM ET. Beyond being the long-time ace of the team, the skipper's reasoning was that "We like Gerrit in [Tropicana Field]." That didn't pacify fans who preferred Rodon to get the start.
Sep 18, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) walks in after pitching in the fifth inning of a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images
However, in a new column on Saturday, The Athletic's Chris Kirschner detailed why there is a lot of scientific evidence that the pitcher who had a solid season in 2026 is simply better whenever he is pitching inside a dome. Something he excelled at during his two years with the Houston Astros .
First, Cole sees a notable difference in the effectiveness of all of his pitches inside a dome stadium. "In Cole's career, opponents have a .568 OPS in a dome and a .665 OPS outdoors. For Rodón, opponents have a .655 OPS in a dome and a .676 OPS outdoors."
Second, his primary pitch, the four-seam fastball, has an elite 19.3 vertical break at Tropicana Field, while it is 17.7 at Yankee Stadium. He also has a 35.2 percent whiff rate on his fastball in Tampa, but at home, it's 25.8 percent."
The Yankees insider also notes that pitching coach Matt Blake claimed that having Rodon pitch at home favors the Yankees because it will force the Rays to use more of their right-handed hitters. And balls hit toward left field in New York are more likely to result in outs.
In the end, Yankees fans should feel confident that Cole will continue the starting staff's dominant performance in this year's playoffs on Saturday night.
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