Ohio State basketball bubble watch: Current NCAA Tournament odds, path to the Dance

Story by

Story by
Ohio State basketball bubble watch: Current NCAA Tournament odds, path to the Dance

Jaren Kawada, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Sat, Feb 28, 2026 ·

5 min read

About Our Ads

Ohio State basketball bubble watch: Current NCAA Tournament odds, path to the Dance appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

Barring a late surge in the 2025-2026 college basketball season, Ohio State is in danger of going without a March Madness bid for the fourth consecutive year. Few teams have struggled more with the expanded Big Ten schedule, and the Buckeyes' NCAA Tournament outlook has suffered as a result.

Ohio State has not strung together more than two consecutive wins since getting off to a 6-0 start that had it on the verge of the AP Top 25. The 17-11 Buckeyes are just 9-8 in Big Ten play, ninth in the conference, despite their strong 12-3 record at home.

Ohio State's primary struggles have been against Quad 1 opponents, which is never a good sign for a team's March Madness aspirations. Jake Diebler's team is just 1-10 in Quad 1 games, according to the NET Rankings. Their only win in that column came against Northwestern, which was upgraded only recently after the Wildcats' upset of a listless Indiana team.

Most of the losses have been competitive, with only three coming by more than 10 points, including two to Michigan. Unfortunately, good-looking losses carry no weight with the selection committee.

Although Ohio State has struggled defensively for most of the season, Diebler's offense has been the main issue against Quad 1 foes. The Buckeyes have averaged just 69.7 points per game in their 11 games against such opponents thus far.

Depending on how the next week unfolds, two of Ohio State's final three games could be considered Quad 1. The Buckeyes' March 1 clash with Purdue will certainly fall into that category, but their regular season finale against Indiana could be a Quad 2, depending on how the Hoosiers fare in their next two games. Diebler might need both games to secure his first NCAA Tournament appearance as a head coach.

Ohio State's current March Madness odds

Ohio State's March Madness odds have fluctuated throughout the 2025-2026 college basketball season and are all over the place at the end of February. They are truly a toss-up, with their destiny likely reliant on their performance in the Big Ten Tournament.

The Buckeyes are almost guaranteed to make the cut on TeamRankings, which gives them a 95.8 percent chance of making the NCAA Tournament, despite a 0.6 percent chance of winning the Big Ten Tournament. The analytical site projects they will end up with a No. 11 seed.

However, ESPN college basketball analyst Joe Lunardi does not have Ohio State in his latest 68-team Bracketology projection . The Buckeyes join California, New Mexico and USC as the "first team out" group.

Oddsmakers are tending to side with Lunardi more than TeamRankings. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Ohio State at +136 to earn a March Madness bid, an implied probability of 42.4 percent. They have the third-worst odds of making the cut among the eight bubble teams listed on the market.

The Buckeyes receiving a bid would require the selection committee to send at least nine Big Ten teams to the NCAA Tournament. Whether that happens will depend on how they view the conference as a whole compared to the SEC and ACC.

While opinions vary, Ohio State desperately needs to end the season on a high note to make the final cut. The Buckeyes ended February on a 1-3 skid, culminating with a dreadful 17-point loss to Iowa. They are leaving a bad taste in everybody's mouths that can only be washed out with a statement victory over Purdue or Indiana.

Path to the Big Dance

Ohio State's 17-point loss to Iowa came at the worst time, as it was as close to a must-win game as the team could have had. Diebler led his team into Iowa City after facing three consecutive ranked opponents, and they now jump right back into the fire against No. 8 Purdue.

While the Buckeyes get that game at home, they will also draw an agitated Boilermakers team that just suffered a two-point loss to Michigan State at home. Purdue has surprisingly been slightly better on the road than at home, going 10-2 in its games outside of Mackey Arena.

Win or lose, Ohio State will follow up that game on the road against Penn State. The meeting will be the second between the teams, one month after the Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions 84-78 in Columbus.

The Penn State game will be the definition of must-win for Ohio State, especially if it loses to Purdue. Another upset loss would all but close the door on their NCAA Tournament hopes.

Ohio State ends the 2025-2026 college basketball regular season back at home against Indiana on March 7. That matchup will be the biggest of the year for both teams, with the Hoosiers also on the NCAA Tournament bubble .

Not only does Ohio State need to win at least two of its three remaining games, but it will also need at least one victory in the Big Ten Tournament to gain the selection committee's respect. Three more wins would give the Buckeyes 20 victories on the year.

Although there is still a chance Ohio State can receive a bid without hitting the 20-win threshold, its horrific Quad 1 record could still have already torched its March Madness outlook. Buckeye Nation has to pray for a favorable matchup in the Big Ten Tournament to keep the door ajar.

Mobilize your Website

View Site in Mobile | Classic

Share by: