The first College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings dropped on Tuesday night, and to the surprise of fans, the Oregon Ducks made the initial shortlist.
The Ducks came in at No. 23 in the first CFP ranking, despite three losses and falling out of the AP Poll Top 25. Oregon's spot in the CFP is far from guaranteed - after all, only 12 teams make the cut, and four regular-season games remain. But the first ranking makes the Ducks'path back into playoff contention clear.
Dec 20, 2025; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning smiles during the third quarter against the James Madison Dukes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Ducks have already dropped games to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, the UCLA Bruins and the Illinois Fighting Illini. The good news for Oregon, outside of the No. 23 ranking, is that it's defeated two of the teams in the top 25: the No. 20 USC Trojans and the No. 25 Boise State Broncos.
UCLA is also ranked No. 8, as one of the Ducks' three losses. A win over the No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 10 would more than likely elevate Oregon's chances, while a loss would almost guarantee it drops out of contention entirely.
ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis outlined Oregon's narrow path forward on Tuesday.
"One we thought was officially cooked, but stay with me on this one... Oregon is not dead yet," Davis said on The Pat McAfee Show. "Great win against Northwestern. But there's a wide path. Not a wide or an easy one. But if they win out, it's not crazy to think that they can get into the Big Ten Championship game and win the conference."
Oct. 8, 2026; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Rece Davis arrives at the Bama Theatre for the red carpet premiere of SABAN, the new ESPN Originals docuseries. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
"I don't favor them to do it because they've been the epitome of inconsistency," he added. "But in this season, anything is possible."
To Davis' point, three losses would typically smash a team's CFP ambitions at this stage in the season, but 2026 is a different story. The number of upsets and consistent shifting around within the AP Poll top five have set the stage for Oregon's continued contention.
Still, Oregon's chance to make a third consecutive playoff berth hinges on it winning out. The Ducks' remaining games include Nov. 7 at No. 12 Ohio State, Nov. 14 vs. the Michigan Wolverines, Nov. 20 at the Michigan State Spartans and No. 28 vs. the Washington Huskies.
In addition to winning the next four, the Ducks will need some help from games outside of their control. If USC loses another game and Oregon beats Ohio State, the Ducks will have the tiebreaker over both. Oregon likely needs UCLA to win out, Illinois to lose again and Indiana to drop another game. That could allow the Ducks to make the Big Ten Championship game, which, if they win, would secure a CFP berth.
Oregon coach Dan Lanning, left, and James Madison coach Bob Chesney meet at midfield after the game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene Dec. 20, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
If UCLA wins out, that takes care of two of those needs: It would mean the Bruins beat Illinois and USC. The most likely scenario for Oregon to get into the Big Ten Championship would involve USC beating the No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers on Nov. 14.
Essentially, the window to squeeze into the postseason picture is narrow, but not closed off. The Ducks' first point of action will be taking care of business in Columbus.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/oregon as Oregon Ducks' College Football Playoff Path Comes Into Focus After Surprise Debut .
