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Panthers playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Carolina to make postseason
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- Panthers playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Carolina to make postseason
Win-and-in. Lose and potentially still in.
The NFC South would have it no other way. The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter Week 18 with a simple task ahead of them: win.
While that was crystal clear before the Atlanta Falcons' upset win over the Los Angeles Rams on "Monday Night Football" in Week 17, it's anything but clear now. Thanks to a three-way tiebreaker that was previously unimaginable, the Panthers no longer need a win in Week 18 to get to the playoffs as the NFC South champion.
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They could easily take care of business on Saturday, Jan. 3 and punch their ticket into the bracket, but all hope isn't lost with a loss.
Carolina hasn't made the playoffs since the 2017 season, when Cam Newton was still under center. After a long run of mediocrity and irrelevance, Bryce Young is hoping to lead the Panthers back to the big stage in the NFL playoffs.
Here's a breakdown of the Panthers' playoff picture and how they could make their long-awaited return to the postseason.
Are the Carolina Panthers in the playoffs?
No, but they aren't out of the race despite their loss. The Buccaneers currently have the edge in the divisional race, but that could change if the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, Jan. 4.
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Panthers playoff chances
The Panthers have a 40% chance to make the playoffs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats . That's down from a 72% chance to make it entering their Week 18 game against the Buccaneers.
But still, Carolina has a path into the playoffs. Even with a loss, the Buccaneers can still be knocked out of first place if the Saints are able to beat the Falcons on Jan. 4. Such a result would allow the Panthers to win the NFC South for the first time since 2015.
Panthers playoff scenarios
The Panthers can only get into the playoffs by winning the NFC South. Here's a look at what it will take for Carolina to win its division in 2025:
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Panthers win or tie vs. Buccaneers
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Panthers loss vs. Buccaneers AND Falcons win vs. Saints
Carolina failed to accomplish the easiest path, as it lost 16-14 to Tampa Bay in Week 18. As such, the Panthers will need help from the Saints to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2017.
If New Orleans can win, Carolina will clinch the NFC's No. 4 seed and a chance to play the highest-seeded wild-card team, which would be the Seahawks , 49ers or Rams. A loss would eliminate them from the playoff picture entirely.
NFC South standings
The Panthers are now in second place in the NFC South after losing to the Buccaneers in Week 18:
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
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Carolina Panthers (8-9)
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Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
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New Orleans Saints (6-10)
Carolina entered the week with a one-game lead over Tampa but the Panthers' loss allowed the Buccaneers to catch them in the standings.
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The Buccaneers are presently ahead of the Panthers in the NFC South race, as they have a tiebreaker advantage over their divisional counterpart. The two teams split the season series and have identical 3-3 division record, but Tampa has a superior record in the "common games" tiebreaker.
The only way for the Panthers to get back on top of the division is for the Falcons to beat the Saints. That would create a three-way tie atop the division and would allow Carolina to advance given its head-to-head record against the Buccaneers and Falcons.
The Panthers have a 3-1 combined record against the Buccaneers and Falcons. Tampa Bay has a 2-2 mark while Atlanta has gone 1-3 against them.
Thanks to that, the Panthers would get into the playoffs as the NFC South champion.
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Panthers remaining schedule
The Panthers have no regular-season games remaining and finished the 2025 NFL season with an 8-9 record.
Buccaneers remaining schedule
The Buccaneers have no regular-season games remaining and finished the 2025 NFL season with an 8-9 record.
Falcons remaining schedule
Here's a look at Atlanta's remaining schedule, which comes into play after Tampa Bay's Week 18 win:
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Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints (6-10)
NFL playoff picture
Here's how the AFC and NFC stack up entering Week 18:
AFC
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Denver Broncos (13-3, AFC West winners)*
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New England Patriots (13-3, AFC East winners)*
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Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, AFC South leaders)*
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Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, AFC North leaders)
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Houston Texans (11-5, wild card No. 1)*
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Los Angeles Chargers (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
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Buffalo Bills (11-5, wild card No. 3)*
In the hunt: Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
NFC
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Seattle Seahawks (13-3, NFC West leaders)*
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Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North winners)*
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Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, NFC East winners)*
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, NFC South leaders)
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San Francisco 49ers (12-4, wild card No. 1)*
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Los Angeles Rams (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
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Green Bay Packers (9-6-1, wild card No. 3)*
In the hunt: Carolina Panthers (8-9)
* Denotes team that has clinched a playoff berth.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Panthers playoff chances: Scenarios, NFC South odds for Carolina
