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The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies in NL Wild Card Game 2 this afternoon. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Phillies are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Braves are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs. Braves predictionbelow, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Braves Pick: Braves Moneyline (+100)
My Braves vs Phillies best betis on Atlanta to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Phillies vs Braves moneyline:Phillies -118, Braves +100
Phillies vs Braves over/under:7.5 (+110o / -134u)
Phillies vs Braves spread:Phillies -1.5 (+146), Braves +1.5 (-176)
| Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, PHI) |
Stat |
Tyler Mahle (RHP, ATL) |
| 18-7 |
W-L |
7-10 |
| 6.2 |
fWAR (FanGraphs) |
2.1 |
| 2.91 / 3.39 |
ERA / xERA |
3.99 / 3.93 |
| 2.80 / 2.65 |
3.99 / 3.85 |
|
| 21.7 |
K-BB% |
14.8 |
| 57.7 |
GB% |
44.0 |
| .333 |
.289 |
|
| 117 |
Stuff+ |
88 |
| 97 |
Location+ |
111 |
The Phillies are facing elimination after blowing a 3-2 lead in Game 1 thanks to a three-run homer by Austin Riley in the bottom of the eighth inning. They'll turn to Cristopher Sanchez to try to keep them in this series.
Sanchez had another excellent season, putting up a 2.91 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with 45 walks and 231 strikeouts in 207 innings. He's an innings-eater who is virtually unhittable when he has a good feel for his changeup.
The Braves will look to wrap up this series with Tyler Mahle on the mound. While this looks like a clear mismatch on the mound on paper, if we dig a little deeper, we find that it's a bit closer than that.
Mahle was phenomenal since the Braves acquired him, putting up a 1.99 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 54.1 innings. He'll look to keep it rolling in this postseason outing.
I like the value on the Braves as home underdogs here.
For one, Sanchez hasn't been as effective in the second half, putting up a 3.39 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He's also worse on the road (.335 wOBA ) than at home (.269 wOBA). When he faced the Braves on September 4th, he allowed three earned runs in six innings.
On the other side, Mahle has dominated the Phillies. He faced them in back-to-back outings in September, allowing a combined one earned run in 13 innings. It's clear he's found a groove in Atlanta.
On top of that, we just saw Jhoan Duran pitch two innings (27 pitches) in Game 1. He may be gassed and less effective if called upon in this one.
To that end, we'll ride with the Braves to sweep the series here.
