Ten teams in Sunday's AP Top 25 are 6-2. Virginia Tech is 6-2, too. It finished fifth among the teams receiving votes, with 12 points. The Coaches Poll also had the Hokies fifth in line, with 53 points.
The record isn't what's holding Virginia Tech back. The schedule is. None of the six teams the Hokies have beaten got a single AP vote Sunday, and the two teams that beat them are a combined 9-9.
That's the rsum the College Football Playoff selection committee will weigh before it reveals its first top 25 of the season Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
My prediction: Virginia Tech won't be in it.
The best win is a real one. Ethan Grunkemeyer hit tight end Luke Reynolds for a 5-yard touchdown with under two minutes at Clemson on Oct. 24, and Virginia Tech won 20-16 for its first win over the Tigers since 2007.
But Clemson is 5-3 and unranked. Boston College is 4-4, and Georgia Tech is 2-6. Old Dominion and Maryland didn't get an AP vote Sunday either, and VMI plays in the FCS.
The losses do more damage. Pittsburgh beat the Hokies 35-33 at Lane Stadium on Oct. 2 when John Love's 36-yard field goal missed as time expired. The committee can live with that one, since Pitt is 6-3. The 25-20 loss at California on Oct. 10 is harder to explain. Cal is 3-6 and has lost three in a row.
A number Tuesday would be a nice rsum marker for Virginia Tech. It isn't the path. Under this year's format, the ACC champion gets an automatic bid no matter where it's ranked, along with the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions.
That road is narrow, too. The Hokies are 3-2 in the league, behind unbeaten Miami (6-0) and Wake Forest (5-1). Either way, the fix is the same: beat somebody the committee respects.
Both come on the road. The first is Friday at SMU (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Mustangs were No. 19 before losing at Syracuse on Saturday, and they're still 6-2 and 4-2 in the ACC. They also got 27 AP points Sunday, so a win in Dallas would be the Hokies' first this season over a team that received a vote.
Coach James Franklin saw SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings up close in the 2024 College Football Playoff, when Penn State beat the Mustangs.
"Obviously their quarterback has been very, very successful and very athletic, with a strong arm and a great decision-maker and accurate," Franklin said Monday.
The second chance is Nov. 21 at No. 1 Miami, which is 8-0. Win that one, and nobody needs a projection.
On Tuesday, Virginia Tech stays out of the top 25.
If the Hokies win in Dallas, I'd put them in. A 7-2 team with three straight wins, two of them on the road at Clemson and SMU, has a lot in common on paper with the Pitt team the committee ranked last November. A loss Friday pushes the next real chance to Miami.
For now, Virginia Tech has the record of a ranked team and the rsum of an unranked one. Friday is the first chance to make those match.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/virginiatech as Predicting if Virginia Tech Will Land in Initial College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings .
