Let's be honest. Are you really a BYU fan if a road G6 game doesn't scare you to death? If it doesn't, one look at a Colorado State box score from this season should be enough to give you heartburn. The word trap game has been thrown around regarding BYU's trip to Fort Collins. After all, Colorado State has it's offense humming en route to a pair of three-touchdown wins so far this season. But how nervous should BYU fans really be heading into Saturday? Let's discuss.
Hauss Hejny is a stud and a bona fide Power 4 caliber Quarterback. The former TCU and Oklahoma State signal caller was a former 4 star recruit and has shown every bit why BYU wanted him out of the portal before last season. The sophomore currently ranks 20th in pass efficiency (181.3) and 2nd in touchdown passes (9) while also having the 3rd longest run of any quarterback this season (75 yards). Hejny is unafraid to push the ball down the field with nearly one out of every five passes being thrown 20 yards or more in the air while also completing nearly half of them. If he has time and his receivers can get separation, Hejny will absolutely hurt BYU.
This offense is explosive. Their 46 points per game ranks 21st in scoring due to their impressive stable of playmakers. Four different Rams have caught passes of 38 yards or more this season while running back Mel Brown is a home run hitter ranking 13th nationally in 15+ yard runs and second in yards per carry (13.4). How much of that is the competition level remains to be seen, but so far, Colorado state is very fun when they have the ball.
On defense, Colorado State leads the nation in takeaways and havoc rate, with more than 25% of their plays resulting in a tackle for loss, pass break up, or turnover. That should be an interesting matchup against a BYU offense who is also first nationally in both of those areas. Finally, Colorado State has some athletes in the secondary. CJ Blocker and Caleb Presley are both former blue-chip prospects with Power 4 experience. BYU fans might remember Blocker as a former Ute, who now leads the nation with a 0 passer rating allowed when targeted.
BYU RB LJ Martin against Arizona | BYU Photo
For all the explosiveness Colorado State offers on both sides of the ball, that knife can cut both ways. Allow me to read off some statistics. Southern Utah averaged nearly 7 yards per play including 9.4 yards per pass and 6.5 yards per rush (excluding sacks). Nearly 25% of SUU's run plays went for 10 yards or more while 173 of the T-Birds 232 passing yards came after the catch. SUU scored 24 points on a night they turned the ball over four times. I don't anticipate forcing four turnovers to be in the cards against BYU. Colorado is extremely aggressive, blitzing on 62% of pass attempts and generating pressure on 50%. When they get pressure, they gave up 2.1 yards per attempt. When they didn't, they gave up 16 yards per attempt.
On offense, Colorado State had runs of 73, 75, and 80 yards last Saturday. On their remaining 29 carries, the Rams rushed to just 68 yards for 2.3 yards per carry. 45% of Hejny's passing yards have come on 5 completions. On the remaining 58 attempts, he averages just 5 yards per attempt. Against pressure, Hejny has looked like a different player, completing 35% of his passes for just 3.9 yards per attempt.
Most of all, CSU does not tackle well. The Rams rank 116th in tackling per PFF and missed 18 tackles in all against the T-Birds, whiffing on 30% of their tackling opportunities. That is not a good sign when playing a BYU team that is one of the best in the country in generating yards after contact.
BYU defensive end Tausili Akana gets a sack against Arizona | BYU Photo
Colorado State is much better than their preseason projection. Talk about the level of competition all you want, but that offense can put up explosives and that defense can make life chaos for opposing offenses. I think they should make a bowl this year and could ruin someone's season in the Pac-12 conference. All of that being said, they are going up against a completely different challenge in BYU.
This game comes down to how good BYU really is. If BYU is really a playoff team, they should roll on both sides of the ball because they have the athletes to do so. In rewatching the SUU game from last week, what struck me was how many receivers were running open on both sides of the ball. So much of the offensive success from both teams came because of athletes in space. That space will not exist in a BYU secondary with 2 cornerbacks that rank top 15 in the Power Four in passer rating when targeted (1st and 13th). The running lanes that allowed Colorado State to break free will not be as common against a BYU front seven that has allowed just one 15 yard run all season.
On offense, BYU certainly will pose a much stiffer challenge than SUU. RB Floyd Chalk ran for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries last week. How many will LJ Martin go for? SUU had 2 receivers that combined to 218 yards receiving. How many will Legend Glasker and Kyler Kasper go for? SUU ran for 3.7 yards before contact. How many yards will BYU generate behind an offensive line that ranks in the top 10 nationally in that metric?
I don't think Colorado State has the horses to stop BYU. I think BYU will control this game at the line of scrimmage from the outset and do whatever it wants to do on offense. Colorado State's offense scares me a little bit because of that quarterback, but if BYU can force him into obvious passing situations, BYU's pass rush, which had 3 sacks last week all on 4-man pressures, will tee off on this Colorado State offensive line. They'll hit on a couple big plays, but not nearly enough to keep up with BYU.
Prediction: BYU 42-13 CSU
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/byu as Preview and Prediction: How Nervous Should BYU Football Be Heading Into Colorado State? .
