QB mismatch between Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson will decide Indiana-Alabama Rose Bowl

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QB mismatch between Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson will decide Indiana-Alabama Rose Bowl

Troy Finnegan, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Wed, Dec 31, 2025 ·

6 min read

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QB mismatch between Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson will decide Indiana-Alabama Rose Bowl appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

If someone told you a couple of years ago that Alabama and Indiana would be playing in a College Football Playoff game, everyone would be imagining the same thing.

Surely, the Hoosiers would be the heavy underdogs, just sneaking into the field after a Cinderella-type season in the Big Ten. On the other hand, the national powerhouse that is Alabama would still be running through the SEC and would swiftly defeat of Indiana, like most college football Goliaths dispose of the Davids when the rubber meets the road.

Well, here we are heading into the Rose Bowl, also serving as a College Football Playoff quarterfinal, and Indiana has flipped everything on its head. The Hoosiers have been doing that for two seasons now, and there's still a part of it that feels surreal.

The Heisman Trophy winner will play in this game… for Indiana. A coach in this game is regarded as one of the top two coaches in college football. He roams the sidelines in Bloomington. There will be one top-10 offense in the nation on the field on Thursday. That would be Indiana's. There will also be a top-five defense on the field, also belonging to the Hoosiers.

Indiana is the powerhouse in this matchup, and Alabama is the underdog. Indiana is the unbeaten, top-ranked team, while Alabama lost three games and had to sweat it out on Selection Sunday.

Alabama has its flaws and Indiana has been rock-solid all year, but this game is still going to come down to the quarterback matchup between Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson . Once again, Indiana has the advantage.

Ty Simpson can be erratic against Indiana's complicated defense

Back in September and October, Ty Simpson was one of the stories of college football. The Alabama signal-caller looked like a surefire first-round draft pick during the first half of the season, but has tapered off ever since. Simpson's film over the last few months has been littered with inaccuracy, bad decisions and turnovers.

Sure, Simpson isn't working in the kind of conditions that are all that ideal for a quarterback to thrive. Alabama drops a lot of passes, specifically star sophomore Ryan Williams. The Crimson Tide can't run the ball at all, ranking 118th out of 134 teams with just under 110 yards per game.

Alabama is completely one-dimensional, relying solely on Simpson to move the ball up and down the field with his arm. In the second half against Oklahoma , he was able to do that, but things will be much tougher against an elite Indiana defense in what is expected to be ugly, rainy weather.

All things considered, Simpson has still been a good quarterback this season. However, this Indiana defense is built to expose some of the areas in which he has struggled this season. The first of those comes when Simpson is under pressure.

Simply put, Indiana's defensive line has been flat-out better than Alabama's offensive line this season, even without Stephen Daley due to an injury during the celebration after the Big Ten Championship Game. In addition to boasting the third-best run defense in the country, the Hoosiers' front has generated 39 sacks on the year.

Simpson's underlying numbers under pressure are worse than they seem. When he has been pressured, which makes up nearly 30% of his dropbacks, he has completed less than 50% of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception. However, that one-pick number is a little bit misleading, as Simpson has 10 turnover-worthy plays when facing pressure this season according to PFF. This is an Indiana team that has 25 takeaways on the season, so Simpson can't be putting the ball in harm's way like that in this game.

A lot of Simpson's turnovers have come when defenses change the coverage picture after the snap. Georgia did that better than anybody in the SEC Championship game, picking off the Alabama QB once and forcing him into a 19-for-39 day overall in a 28-7 win.

There may not be a better defense in the country at doing just that than Indiana. Bryant Haines is an expert of finding a ton of different ways to get into the same coverages with different fronts, shells and simulated pressures, and deciphering that is one of the many things that will be on Simpson's plate on Thursday.

Indiana also owns the key moments of the game. The Hoosiers boast the third-best defense in the country on third downs and the best defense when it comes to preventing touchdowns in the red zone. In those situations, things will get even tougher for Simpson, and he will have to be at his best.

Fernando Mendoza is unflappable, and he will be again

Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The stat sheet may not take Fernando Mendoza look like a great Heisman Trophy winner, but a run-first offense and a lot of fourth quarters spent running out the clock explain why.

There's a reason the Cal transfer is currently projected to be the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Mendoza is a good athlete but an elite pocket passer, with pinpoint accuracy and a good arm that can make throws anywhere on the field.

Most importantly, and in a big contrast to what Simpson has done this season, Mendoza is a cool, calm passer that is unaffected by what's happening around him. Take the Big Ten Championship, for example. Mendoza got clocked so hard by Caden Curry on the first play of the game that he actually had to leave the game for a play. However, he returned to play a stellar game and lead a game-winning touchdown drive against the best defense in the country.

Mendoza also doesn't care if he is under pressure or if he is blitzed, which should be a huge plus against an Alabama defense that like to get after the quarterback and has been doing a better job of that lately.

When Mendoza has been pressured this season, he is still averaging over eight yards per attempt with eight touchdowns, two interceptions and just four turnover-worthy plays on 108 dropbacks according to PFF.

When he is blitzed, the numbers get even better. On 162 blitzed dropbacks in 2025, Mendoza is averaging 9.4 yards per attempt with 19 touchdowns and just three picks. He isn't turning the ball over and is still picking up big gains routinely.

Omar Cooper Jr. is back to 100% for this game after picking up an injury during the Big Ten title game, and Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker provide a pair of big targets on the outside. All of these factors should allow Mendoza to have the better game of the two quarterbacks and give Indiana the win in the Rose Bowl.

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