Ranking 5 most likely March Madness upsets in NCAA Tournament Round 2

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Ranking 5 most likely March Madness upsets in NCAA Tournament Round 2

Ranking 5 most likely March Madness upsets in NCAA Tournament Round 2

Ehsan Kassim, USA TODAY · USA TODAY Sports

Sat, Mar 21, 2026 ·

4 min read

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Follow all of Saturday's NCAA Tournament second round games with USA TODAY Sports' live updates .

Day 1 of the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament provided college basketball fans with upsets . Day 2 was all chalk .

Now that the second round of March Madness has arrived, what will fans get on Saturday, March 21 and Sunday, March 22? We saw a couple of No. 1 seeds tested in the opening round, while the others cruised to victory.

Topp Thoughts: Kentucky's win leaves Jamal Mashburn unimpressed

March Madness games today: Ranking all 8 men's NCAA Tournament games Saturday

We also saw some injuries in the first two days that could impact the rest of the tournament. Could Otega Oweh's first-round performance give Kentucky a shot in the arm to make a deep tournament run?

With four double-digit seeds in action in the Round of 32, could we see one of them squeeze their way into the Sweet 16? Here's a look at the five most likely upsets for the 2026 NCAA Tournament:

Iowa State Cyclones fans cheer against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 22, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri.

(Jamie Squire, Getty Images)

Kansas Jayhawks cheerleaders perform before a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the St. John's Red Storm at Viejas Arena on March 22, 2026 in San Diego, Calif.
(Denis Poroy, Imagn Images)

Nebraska's Berke Buyuktuncel celebrates with fans following a second-round game in the NCAA men's basketball tournament between Nebraska Cornhuskers and Vanderbilt Commodores at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on March 21, 2026.

(SARAH PHIPPS, THE OKLAHOMAN via USA TODAY NETWORK)

Arkansas Razorbacks cheerleaders in the second half against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Ore.

(Troy Wayrynen, Imagn Images)

VCU Rams fans react after a 3-pointer by Terrence Hill Jr. #6 of the VCU Rams in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Jared C. Tilton, Getty Images)

Howard Bison cheerleaders perform during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Michigan Wolverines at Keybank Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY.
(Mark Konezny, Imagn Images)

BYU Cougars cheerleader in the second half against the Texas Longhorns during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Portland, Ore.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

Former North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams is seen in the crowd against the VCU Rams in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on Mar 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

Texas A&M Aggies cheerleaders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, Imagn Images)

Texas Longhorns band in the first half against the BYU Cougars during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center on Mar 19, 2026 in Portland.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

St. John's Red Storm mascot Johnny Thunder mixes with players prior to taking the court during practice day ahead of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Viejas Arena at San Diego State University on March 19, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Sean M. Haffey, Getty Images)

A Texas Christian University Horned Frogs cheerleader practices before the game during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.

(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

The High Point Panthers fans cheer during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Troy Wayrynen, Imagn Images)

The High Point Panthers cheerleaders react during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Troy Wayrynen, Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images)

The North Dakota State Bison mascot and cheerleaders pose for a photo before the game against the Michigan State Spartans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY
(Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images)

Nebraska Cornhuskers fans cheer after defeating the Troy Trojans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(Alonzo Adams, Imagn Images)

The Wisconsin Badgers mascot performs during a time out during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

A view of Buddy the Street Dog as Queens University of Charlotte Royals guard Yoav Berman talks to the media during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center in St. Louis on March 19, 2026.
(Jeff Le, Imagn Images)

The High Point Panthers band performs prior to a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

High Point Panthers fans cheer prior to a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

The Wisconsin Badgers cheerleaders preform during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

The South Florida Bulls mascot performs during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, NY.
(Mark Konezny, Imagn Images)

The Texas Christian University Horned Frogs cheerleaders perform in the first half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Jim Dedmon, Imagn Images)

The Troy Trojans mascot dances on the floor during the second half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, William Purnell-Imagn Images)

The UCF Knights band performs during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 19, 2026 in Philadelphia.
(Bill Streicher, Imagn Images)

Nebraska Cornhuskers cheerleaders perform during the second half against the Troy Trojans during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center on March 19, 2026 in Oklahoma City.
(William Purnell, Imagn Images)

A Wisconsin Badgers cheerleader performs during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the High Point Panthers at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Or.
(Craig Strobeck, Imagn Images)

The Ohio State Buckeyes cheerleaders perform in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, SC.
(Bob Donnan, Imagn Images)

Akron Zips fans in the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Texas Tech Red Raiders cheerleaders in the first half against the Akron Zips during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Nathan Ray Seebeck, Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)

Santa Clara Broncos fans react to game play against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center on March 20, 2026 in St. Louis, MO.
(Jeff Le, Jeff Le-Imagn Images)

Akron Zips cheerleaders and mascot in the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Wright State Raiders fans celebrate after a Wright State Raiders guard TJ Burch (22) scores during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena on March 20, 2026 in Philadelphia, PA.
(Bill Streicher, Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)

Hofstra Pride cheerleaders in the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena on March 20, 2026 in Tampa, Fla.
(Matt Pendleton, Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

Garth Noble of the Louisville pep band is amped at the 2026 NCAA Women's March Madness basketball tournament at the KFC Yum Center In Louisville, Kentucky. March 21, 2026.
(Matt Stone/Courier Journal)

Michigan head coach Dusty May high-fives players after 95-72 win over Saint Louis at the NCAA Tournament Second Round at KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Saturday, March 21, 2026.
(Junfu Han, USA TODAY NETWORK)

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish band and spirit squad cheer during the first round of the NCAA women's basketball tournament against the Fairfield Stags at Ohio State's Schottenstein Center in Columbus on March 21, 2026.
(Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch)

1. No. 7 Kentucky over No. 2 Iowa State

Why it could happen:Four words. Two players. Otega Oweh . Joshua Jefferson . Oweh is coming off a career-high performance with 35 points, while Jefferson suffered an ankle sprain minutes into the Cyclones' win over Tennessee State. If Jefferson is out or hindered, who will step up for the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder?

Why it won't happen:Kentucky has proven to be inconsistent this season. The way the Wildcats won against Santa Clara could be the spark for the team to make a run. Or it's just another blip on the radar for a team that's spent a lot on its roster for inconsistent play.

2. No. 7 UCLA over No. 2 UConn

Why it could happen:If not for a heroic effort from Tarris Reed Jr. (31 points, 27 rebounds), UConn would have been knocked out in the opening round by No. 15 Furman. Couple that with losses to Marquette and St. John's in the final four games, and the Huskies look vulnerable. The Bruins looked dominant against UCF, until the final minutes.

Why it won't happen:UConn is UConn and Dan Hurley gives them a shot. As does Reed, who was one of USA TODAY's potential breakout players to watch ahead of the NCAA Tournament. The question is, do the Bruins have an answer for him? We'll have to find out.

3. No. 11 Texas over No. 3 Gonzaga

Why it could happen:Gonzaga struggled putting Kennesaw State away on Thursday, and looks susceptible to a potential upset. Texas, meanwhile, seemed to cruise to victory over No. 6 BYU and talented freshman AJ Dybantsa. Could the Longhorns have found their footing?

Why it won't happen:Texas lost five of its last six games heading into the NCAA Tournament, while Gonzaga lost three games all season. Yes, the NCAA Tournament is a reset, but the regular season matters, too.

4. No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 1 Michigan

Why it could happen:Saint Louis arguably had the most impressive win of the first round, beating Georgia 102-77, which is not even indicative of the 40-point lead it once held. With Yaxel Lendeborg dealing with an ankle issue, the Billikens can apply pressure early and potentially have a shot to knock out a No. 1 seed.

Why it won't happen:Michigan is elite. The regular season proved that, and Dusty May has brought his program very far in just two years of leading it. Lendeborg, if healthy, is the best player on the court, and that helps in March when the pressure begins to build.

5. No. 9 Iowa over No. 1 Florida

Why it could happen:Florida's Achilles' heel could be its guard play. The Gators were exposed a little by Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament. Iowa is led by AP All-American Honorable Mention Bennett Stirtz , who could cause problems for Boogie Fland and Xavien Lee to defend. The Hawkeyes play slow and can win if they dictate the pace.

Why it won't happen:The Gators are coming off one of the most dominant wins in NCAA Tournament history. Iowa cannot match up with Florida's big men, giving the Gators the opportunity for several second-chance plays. Ultimately, Florida is more talented and deeper than Iowa.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness upset predictions: Ranking most likely Round 2 surprises

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See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

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See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

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See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

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See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

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See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

See best of March Madness 2026, from mascots and fans to celebrities

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1. No. 7 Kentucky over No. 2 Iowa State

2. No. 7 UCLA over No. 2 UConn

3. No. 11 Texas over No. 3 Gonzaga

4. No. 9 Saint Louis over No. 1 Michigan

5. No. 9 Iowa over No. 1 Florida