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Red Sox ace says it’s ‘insane’ Lucas Giolito isn’t signed: ‘The middle of the market gets screwed’
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- Red Sox ace says it’s ‘insane’ Lucas Giolito isn’t signed: ‘The middle of the market gets screwed’
FORT MYERS, Fla. — Veteran righty Lucas Giolito was a big part of the Red Sox ’ rotation in 2025, rebounding from a slow start to log a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings over 26 starts and forming a strong front-end trio of starters along with Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello . It’s a surprise, then, that Giolito remains unsigned as spring training games begin in Florida and Arizona this weekend.
Giolito, by all accounts, is the top remaining free agent available to teams as camps open and it’s not an issue of health, as the 31-year-old has had a normal offseason throwing at Cressey Sports Performance in Florida and has shown no lingering effects of the elbow injury that sidelined him for Boston ’s postseason stint. Still, to this point, he has found no suitable offers, leaving one of his notable ex-Red Sox teammates quite puzzled.
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“It’s insane,” Crochet said Saturday. “Very insane.
“It just doesn’t make a ton of sense. It’s just been that way for a while, though. The middle of the market on both the position player and pitching side kind of gets screwed and ends up either signing after the season begins or what have you.”
The free agent market for top starters was both steady and fruitful this season with big signings consistently happening from November through early February. Dylan Cease set the market with a seven-year, $210 million deal from Toronto before Thanksgiving with Ranger Suárez (5 years, $130 million from Boston) , Framber Valdez (3 years, $115 million from Detroit ), Michael King (3 years, $75 million from San Diego ), Tatsuya Imai (3 years, $54 million from Houston ), Merrill Kelly (2 years, $40 million), Zac Gallen (1 year, $22.025 million) and Chris Bassitt (1 year, $18.5 million from Baltimore ) all getting deals. Giolito has been linked to teams like the Orioles, Tigers and Braves — Crochet called Atlanta a “pretty obvious fit” for him now after losing Spencer Schwellenbach and Huston Waldrep to injury — and could also intrigue the Twins, who just lost Pablo Lopez to Tommy John surgery. Those who know Giolito best believe he could help any team.
“You look at teams across the league that aren’t trying to win — I won’t name the teams, but OK, it makes sense they’re not gonna target a guy like that,“ Crochet said. ”But it’s at the point where it’s like, ‘What even is his price range?’ Because for the value he’s providing, I would say he outplayed his (Red Sox contract). If you look at the two years, OK, I get it, he blew out. But if you just look at the one year for $18 (million), I’d say he outplayed that. Then, look at what top-end pitchers (like Valdez) are getting, too.
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“When you’re looking at the ceiling and the floor, there’s not a huge difference there. There’s a lot of pedigree and a lot of recent success.”
Crochet said he was in steady contact with Giolito until the start of spring training .
“I don’t know if him ending (the year) on the IL with him has done anything,” Crochet continued. “He was sending me videos and he looks great. Even the stuff I see on Instagram, it looks great. I don’t want to put words in his mouth or speak for him, but you know how spring training goes, people get hurt. Maybe some more teams need arms, more teams that are competing. There are a couple teams that really aren’t trying to win, so maybe he has received offers from those but wants to go to a team that’s actually trying to win.”
Giolito was effective for the Red Sox during a large chunk of 2025 but did not flash with metrics. His strikeout rate (7.5 K/9) was down from his previous career mark of 9.6 K/9. His Baseball Savant page does not suggest he was a standout in any predictive metric outside of extension, where he ranked in the 71st percentile in the league. Giolito was unremarkable in things like expected ERA (12th percentile), fastball velocity (32nd), chase percentage (30th), hard-hit rate (45th) and walk rate (30th). Still, he was able to get the job done, especially during an 18-start stretch from May 24 to August 31 in which he went 9-1 and logged a 2.66 ERA in 105 innings.
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“Incredibly impactful,” Crochet said. “There were times where him and Bello were both pitching like the ace of the staff. From June to August, there was a big window there where I feel like they were really leading the charge.
Simply put, Giolito passed the eye test, Crochet said while invoking the example of a younger, less-accomplished pitcher who was highly sought-after on the trade market and ultimately moved from Tampa Bay to Baltimore in a blockbuster deal .
“I think that you can get lost (in the numbers),” Crochet said. “It’s tough because that has become so much of what the game is. Someone that has got incredible (stuff), for example, is Shane Baz . He probably has an insane Savant page and insane peripherals. Nothing against him, but last year, I think Giolito probably had better numbers than him across the board. As a GM, I can understand why you’d want the guy that’s younger and throws harder and is a little further removed from TJ and isn’t coming off an injury, but there’s something to be said for doing it at the big league level.
“A lot of guys never figure it out here. The guys that have, they’ve stayed around, in the past, for a reason. I don’t think that just because we’re getting super analytical that we should look at it any different. When you look at depth, you’re looking at guys who are experienced and have done it, not guys that can do it. That’s not depth. That’s just another prospect.
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The Red Sox did not aggressively pursue a reunion with Giolito, instead opting to sign Suárez and trade for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo in a rotation revamp. Crochet, who was Giolito’s teammate in Chicago from 2020-2024, is hoping to see his friend land a deal soon.
“There were countless times where me and Gio were talking and it was like, ‘What if I get extended? What if I stick around?’ and then he ended the year on the IL and it was tough to watch,” Crochet said. “Being in the rotation together and being on a similar routine helped with that. I grew a huge appreciation for him, his work ethic and what he does off the field watching it up close in the dugout and not 400 feet away in the bullpen.”
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