No Houston Rockets fan has experienced a rebuild quite like this one.
Yes, there have been rebuilds. Some of you are old enough to remember the Rockets tanking for Hakeem Olajuwon even though they already had Ralph Sampson. That's probably the closest analog, but it's still not a top-down, from-scratch rebuild like the one we've been watching.
When the Olajuwon era was dying, and the Rockets landed Steve Francis, they got quickly off to the races. There was no more vying for high lottery picks. They pivoted to Yao Ming mid-era when their pick leaped. They were a plucky, competitive bunch until they stumbled into James Harden, and now we're here. The point?
We are not used to evaluating young players over here.
There is an underlying assumption that after four seasons, we "know who a player is". As far as assumptions go, this one isn't too far off base. Rare is the NBA player who stagnates in his fourth season, only to make "the leap".
It seems that Jabari Smith Jr. does not care for our assumptions.
Last year, Smith Jr. averaged 15.9 points per game while shooting 45.0% from the field and 36.8% from deep.
It was his best season, but only by a fairly narrow margin. OK, we (with some exceptions, I see you, Darren, shout out Big O) collectively thought. This is who he is.
It wasn't so bad! Smith Jr. was one of the best shooters in the NBA who could reasonably play any minutes at the 5. That's something. He had real defensive utility, even if he wasn't elite. Really, this was the floor version of Bari that was advertised during the draft process. Limited on-ball ability, defensively versatile 6'11" floor spacer. It wasn't sexy, but we were willing to take it.
But this year's version of Smith Jr. is downright sultry.
He's averaging 19.0 points per game while shooting 48.9% from the field and 44.7% from three-point range. This is closer to the ceiling version of Smith Jr.:
Is it sustainable?
Smith Jr.'s shot profile has barely changed. In 2026-27, 51.1% of his field goals are coming from beyond the arc, compared to 50.1% last year. The rest of his attempts are spread fairly evenly from the deep two range to the paint, just as they were last season.
On paper, virtually all the improvement is coming from his three-point efficiency boost. So, that's a valid concern. Smith Jr. is unlikely to finish the season shooting 44.7% from deep.
It's worth noting that the data says Smith Jr. is mostly getting better shots this season. NBA.com classifies 25.7% of his field goals as wide open, compared to 18.5% in 2025-26.
The story underneath the story here is that it looks like Ime Udoka thought about offense this summer (I know, right?). He may have intentionally instilled defense and hustle principles for two seasons before expanding his playbook, but that's another article.
Back to Smith Jr.: He looks much more confident with the ball. He's attacking closeouts and getting to his spots. He is simply a better basketball player.
There have always been questions about Smith Jr., but none have ever pertained to his work ethic. He's always had the want. He's mostly made marginal improvements in every year of his career, and we're simply seeing the widest margin this season.
So yes, his three-point shooting is likely to regress. It's also pretty likely that this will be the best shooting (and, vicariously, overall) season of Smith Jr.'s career.
Who saw that coming?
