Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano prediction, odds, pick for MVP MMA 1

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Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano prediction, odds, pick for MVP MMA 1

Dominik Zawartko, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, May 14, 2026 ·

4 min read

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Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano prediction, odds, pick for MVP MMA 1 appeared first on ClutchPoints . Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here .

The Main Event of MVP MMA 1 is finally here as we present a prediction and pick for this headlining bout in the Women’s Featherweight (145) Division. MMA pioneers will meet as Ronda Rousey will take on Gina Carano in a can’t-miss spectacle on Netflix. Check our MMA odds series for the Rousey-Carano prediction and pick.

Ronda Rousey (12-2) will make her first return to mixed martial arts since last fighting Amanda Nunes for the UFC Bantamweight title in 2016. The first women’s MMA superstar, Rousey will forever live in lore as one of the greatest to ever do it both in her trained discipline of Judo and in MMA. She comes in the heavy betting favorite standing 5-foot-6 with a 66-inch reach.

Gina Carano (7-1) makes her first return to combat sports since last headlining Strikeforce in 2009 against Cris Cyborg, a historic moment as the first big fight in women’s mixed martial arts. She has since made a career for herself in Hollywood on the big screen and will make another Netflix appearance, this time in the cage. Carano stands 5-foot-8 with a 66.5-inch reach.

MVP MMA 1 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings .

MVP MMA 1 Odds: Ronda Rousey-Gina Carano Odds

Ronda Rousey: -575

Gina Carano: +425

Over 1.5 rounds: +150

Under 1.5 rounds: -195

Why Ronda Rousey Will Win

Since departing from one of the most impressive mixed martial arts careers of all-time, Ronda Rousey made the natural move to the WWE from 2018, becoming a three-time world champion and the only woman to headline a Wrestlemania. Before even considering MMA, Rousey won a bronze medal in Judo at the 2008 Beijing Olympics and reached the pinnacle of her first discipline. Her work ethic is unmatched and she’s incapable of not taking a fight seriously, so it comes as no surprise to see her the heavy betting favorite.

At 39 years old, Rousey appears to be in some of the best shape of her life and doesn’t seem to have lost a step with her striking. Her grappling has always been the hallmark of her career, but it’ll be interesting to see how much time she’s dedicated to training striking in her 10 years away from MMA. By the looks of recent training videos , Rousey seems extremely fast and prepped for a scrap in the pocket with her hands.

Granted, it’ll be interesting to see if she goes back to her roots and goes for the takedown to a submission attempt, doing what she does best. She should have an advantage in physical strength and we should see her Judo techniques naturally come into play. Watch for the patented armbar as her pure technique with the submission is considered one of the best of all time across both men’s and women’s MMA.

Why Gina Carano Will Win

Gina Carano took a slightly different path after her fighting career in making a huge name for herself as an actress. She was an early pioneer of women’s MMA and her headlining bout against Cris Cyborg (Strikeforce, 2009) is considered the first marquee women’s bout in the sport. She hasn’t seen competition since then, so there’s really no telling what she’ll look like in the cage after all this time. However, she looks to be in great physical shape and has always been a motivated competitor familiar with the underdog spot.

At the height of her powers, Gina Carano was a brawling kickboxer with one of the best chins in the sport. She owned three career finishes by knockout, one by submission, and three decisions as her Muay Thai striking carried her far. Despite the loss to Cris Cyborg, she put on a great performance and immediately made a name for herself in the sport.

Recent training videos suggest Carano is still focused on her lateral movement, something that should serve her well in maneuvering around Rousey’s advancements. While she may have lost a step in here speed at 44 years old, she’s always been more known for her accuracy and ability to withstand a punch.

Final Ronda Rousey-Gina Carano Prediction & Pick

This fight should be a fun spectacle and it’ll be interesting to see what kind of shape both fighters are in after both being away from the sport for 25 collective years. By what we’ve seen thus far, Ronda Rousey seems to be in tremendous shape, almost as though she’s preparing to make a real comeback to the sport.

I expect the gap in preparation to be noticeable early in this fight, rightfully indicated by the current betting lines. Expect Rousey to close the distance quickly with her striking, notching a quick takedown, and finishing this fight with her signature armbar. Take the under as this should end in the first-round.

Final Ronda Rousey-Gina Carano Prediction & Pick: Ronda Rousey (-575); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-195)

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