NFL draft grades are always a controversial topic. On one hand they are necessary prognostications used to measure the value of the prospect. On the other hand, they are wildly assumptive and based more on scouting reports than the decision-making process.
That's why every year I grade the picks focused on more objective factors , adding context and applying it to the Dallas Cowboys ' decision-making process. While so many other grades are focused on predicting the success or failure of a player, this looks at things more high-level using the Scientific Grading Method.
Looking at consensus value, we can determine if the Cowboys got the right bang for the buck. Consensus boards are consistently more trustworthy than even the best team or media scout. It removes peaks and valleys by eliminating wild takes.
Positional and surplus value weigh positions based on importance as well as compensation. For instance, a quarterback is going to score higher than a tight end in both categories because it adds more value on the field and it gets paid considerably more. A high performing quarterback can save a franchise tens of millions per year playing on a rookie deal while a highly drafted tight end offers little to no savings.
Also to be factored in are team-specific needs.
Linebacker may not be a super valuable position in the league but to a linebacker-needy team like the Cowboys, it's valuable. Scarcity is another thing that must be considered. If there aren't many good options remaining in the draft class or in free agency, Dallas may need to reach on a prospect. That deserves consideration.
Finally risk and reward must be considered.
Some players have high floors and that has to factor in. Some players have high ceilings and that has to factor in. Those rare players who are low-risk and high-reward, like Caleb Downs , deserve extra points as blue-chip prospects.
Using the Scientific Grading Method, we avoid predictions and avoid regurgitating scouting reports. We can focus on the big picture and deliver a more objective analysis instead. Previously we tackled grades for Jaishawn Barham , Malachi Lawrence and Downs. Today we'll review the four Day 3 picks and issue a final grade.
The Cowboys entered Day 3 of the 2026 NFL draft (players picked between the fourth and seventh round) with significant needs at linebacker, cornerback and defensive line. They addressed two of those needs plus added a receiver and made the obligatory offensive line pick.
Shelton isn't a plug-and-play starter, but the Cowboys don't need him to be. The 6-foot-5, 313-pound offensive tackle from Penn State is competing for the swing tackle position. With a year of strength and technique training, he could even see himself competing for a starting spot if Tyler Guyton doesn't improve in 2026.
Draft board value (consensus): 7/10
Positional and surplus value: 8/10
Team need at the position: 7/10
Scarcity of position: 7/10
Risk: 6/10
Reward: 7/10
Final player grade: 7/10
Moore is a highly talented boundary cornerback with starting potential but a long injury history. He's coming off a healthy year and could compete for a starting gig right away in 2026.
Draft board value (consensus): 8/10
Positional and surplus value: 7/10
Team need at the position: 8/10
Scarcity of position: 7/10
Risk: 6/10
Reward: 9/10
Final player grade: 7.5/10
Overton isn't the most athletically gifted defensive end prospect in the class but he has the size. At 6-foot-3, 274-pounds and a wingspan of over 81-inches, he figures to be a possible base end and/or solid option in a 3-4 scheme as a 5 or 4i.
Draft board value (consensus): 8/10
Positional and surplus value: 6/10
Team need at the position: 7/10
Scarcity of position: 6/10
Risk: 6/10
Reward: 7/10
Final player grade: 6.5/10
Smith brings decent size (6-foot-2, 197-pounds) and solid production but he also has a concerning number of drops (six in 2025). He didn't play special teams last season and his spot on the Cowboys roster will depend on ST ability
Draft board value (consensus): 7/10
Positional and surplus value: 8/10
Scarcity of position: 7/10
Team need at the position: 6/10
Risk: 6/10
Reward: 6/10
Final player grade: 6.5
Day 3 draft grades carry less weight than the picks made through the first two days. The odds are stacked against these players with majority washing out of the league in a few short years. As such, their grades count less towards the final grades overall. With Day 1 counting 1/3, Day 3 counting 1/3 and Day 3 counting 1/3, extra emphasis is placed on the first picks.
Dallas Cowboys final 2026 draft grade: 8/10
The Cowboys did great where it mattered most which is early in the draft. Day 3 was a mixed bag of prospects with some inescapable warts that must be considered.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Scientific grades for Day 3 selections: Cowboys closed out strong?
