TORONTO — The San Jose Sharks don't think that they have a power play entry problem.
"Our power play entries this year, analytically speaking, are pretty high. I don't think that has been an issue for the most part," head coach Ryan Warsofsky said, before conceding. "Tonight, it was an issue."
Macklin Celebrini agreed: "We've had some amazing power plays this year, where we're getting a lot of chances and had really good chemistry. It's just tonight was a little off."
The Maple Leafs beat the Sharks 3-1, behind a pair of power play goals. Meanwhile, San Jose was shut out on the PP, and frittered away a crucial third period man advantage, down just one goal, with a couple failed entries.
Stathletes suggests that it's a larger problem for the San Jose Sharks, though hockey tactics expert Jack Han took a bigger picture view.
Per Stathletes, and yes, we're still in small sample size alert, the Sharks are 22ndin the NHL with a 65.5 Successful Entry % on the power play. The Columbus Blue Jackets top the league with an 81.3 %.
San Jose is 20thin the NHL with a 70.0 Successful Controlled Entry % on the power play. The Anaheim Ducks pace the league with am 82.5 %.
Here's what Han thinks: "'Entry success' sounds like it includes dump-ins, which is something that no good PP would do too much of. 'Controlled entries success' doesn't tell me if success means just having possession for X seconds after crossing the blueline or having possession while being set up."
That said, these are more refined stats than simply the Sharks' 20.0 Power Play % rate, good for 18thin the NHL.
Here's what Han is seeing on the ice.
" Dmitry Orlov doesn't quite have the wheels to consistently carry to red line to set up the drop pass," Han said. "Like Lane Hutson will do every single time for Montreal."
For what it's worth, the San Jose Sharks have found lots of success with Orlov on PP1 recently. Orlov-Celebrini-Ivar Stenberg-Will Smith-Alex Wennberg have scored four power play goals in the last four games, all with Orlov on the ice.
Han acknowledges that but is speaking specifically about getting the PP set up. Everybody knows that the drop pass is going to Celebrini, as it should, with his speed and skill. But a quarterback who can offer a change-up will only make the drop pass even more effective.
"Someone like Hutson or Rasmus Dahlin may fake the drop and attack off the rush right away," he noted.
"This is where not having Cagnoni hurts PP1," Han opined.
But there are good reasons for Orlov over Cagnoni, which we'll get to shortly. As for the second power play group?
"On PP2, they're basically playing as if it's 5-on-5," Han said, noting that Jacob Trouba-Mason Marchment-Igor Chernyshov-Tyler Toffoli-Michael Misa rely on a lot of dump-ins.
"The objective of a PP breakout is for the attackers to gain 100 percent possession, in a 1-3-1 set-up," Han said. "It's not to create a 50-50 corner battle."
But drop pass to Celebrini or corner dump?
"In both cases, there is a lack of predictability in the moment leading up to the entry attempt," Han said.
Look, the San Jose Sharks don't have a bad power play. Including last year's 16th-ranked PP, they appear to be average.
Credit to Orlov, who also supplanted John Klingberg on PP1 last year.
This may be why he's gotten the nod over Cagnoni: Per Natural Stat Trick, Orlov has a 60.7 Shots Per 60 rate at 5-on-4 with PP1 staples Celebrini, Smith, and Wennnerg. Cagnoni, same 5-on-4 linemates, has a 39.9 Shots Per 60. Small sample size, but that's a sizable difference. This matches the eye test, Orlov has a deadlier shot and has no issues using it, and so far this season, he's been clearly more effective in PP zone than Cagnoni.
"It's very hard to have good entry/setup stats without also being quite good at shot volume generation," Han said.
So whatever misgivings that Han has about Orlov as an ideal PP setup man? He's been effective in zone. And maybe the Sharks have internal analytics that suggest that entries have been mostly successful, especially with Orlov.
But for the San Jose Sharks to become an elite power play?
"As for measuring effectiveness, the stat that Arik Parnass pioneered is PP entry attempt leading to a set-up, which is broadly the objective of a PP entry," Han said. "Most of the marginal value for a PP D is on the breakout/set-up phases. After that, it's about moving the puck accurately and occasionally taking a shot, which many more guys can do."
Orlov, going back to last year, has done the last thing well. And Cagnoni, it's just nine games into his first NHL season, so maybe he gets there?
It was always a tall order to hand PP1 duties to a 21-year-old with just nine NHL games on his resume before this year. That's not a shot at San Jose Sharks GM Mike Grier, by the way. True PP1 defensemen are not a dime a dozen. And Cagnoni was the highest-ceiling NHL-ready PP quarterback in the organization.
But big picture? My guess is that the Sharks' PP1 quarterback, now and in the future, is going to continue to be a big topic of conversation throughout this season.
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