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SI.com Predicts Individual Award for Kyler Murray
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- SI.com Predicts Individual Award for Kyler Murray
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
It doesn't quite have the flair of the NFL MVP award, but CBS Sports formally handed Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray the best case to win Comeback Player of the Year this week.
Minnesota's new quarterback has a clear path to national buzz if the Vikings rebound in 2026.
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Murray missed 12 games last season before the Arizona Cardinals dropped him like a bad habit. Now, the speedy 28-year-old is in Minnesota to get back on track.
A Strong Vikings Season Could Put Murray in Awards Talk
Murray over Patrick Mahomes ? SI.com says yep .
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) goes through pregame warmups before facing the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle on Nov. 24, 2024. Murray prepared for the NFC West road matchup as Arizona attempted to remain competitive late in the regular season against a familiar division rival in one of the league's loudest stadium environments. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images.
Parker Loverich: Murray Has 50% Odds to win Comeback Player of the Year
Parker Loverich of SI.com sized up the NFL's soon-to-be race for Comeback Player of the Year, and Murray led the way, in his estimation.
He explained , "Kyler Murray | 50% Chance. The ACL tear in late 2022 was serious, the kind of injury that takes a quarterback more than a full year to stop thinking about. Murray came back, got through the early awkwardness, and by 2025 was playing at a level that reminded people what he looked like before it happened."
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"Unfortunately, last year in week 5 he suffered a season ending foot injury. After sitting out the rest of the season, Murray finds himself with a change of scenery in Minnesota. He has new weapons and a new home to try and revive his career. The market gives him 50%. The remaining half is split across a field that includes some genuinely strong cases."
In addition to Murray and Mahomes, Micah Parsons (Green Bay Packers), Malik Nabers (New York Giants), and George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) made the cut for Loverich.
The Case … Makes Sense
After stumbling to a 4-8 start in 2025, the Vikings somehow clawed their way back to a 9-8 finish. Just one more win — specifically, the Week 18 game against Green Bay when the Packers were resting starters — could have decisively altered the NFC North race.
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The most remarkable aspect of that turnaround was the quarterback play. The Vikings had the NFL's fifth-worst quarterback production (by Dropback EPA) yet still finished above .500. The outcome was highly unusual; teams with such poor QB efficiency typically find themselves drafting in the top 10, firing their coaches, or both.
Despite this, Kevin O'Connell guided the Vikings to nine wins.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) stretches and warms up before a home matchup against the San Francisco 49ers at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, on Dec. 17, 2023. Murray prepared for the divisional contest as the Cardinals hosted San Francisco during the final stretch of the regular season in the NFC West race. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow-Arizona Republic.
Given the Vikings achieved nine wins with quarterback play ranked 28th in the league, their ceiling dramatically increases with Murray under center— provided he stays healthy and plays consistently. The team doesn't require MVP-level football from him. Just solid, healthy quarterback play could easily propel this team to 11 or 12 wins.
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He'll also inherit this weaponry:
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Justin Jefferson (WR)
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Jordan Addison (WR)
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Jauan Jennings (WR)
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T.J. Hockenson (TE)
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Jordan Mason (RB)
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Aaron Jones (RB)
In Arizona, Murray averaged roughly 4,000 passing yards, 600 rushing yards, and 30 cumulative touchdowns every 17 starts, so if he could do that on a poor franchise, generally speaking, he'll have the opportunity to pop off further in Minnesota.
A nine-win team from the year prior, welcoming a usually productive Murray, indeed has all the makings for Comeback Player of the Year.
Why Not MVP?
At the moment, he has +7500 odds to win the MVP award, wedged between Jaxson Dart (+7000, NYG) and Cam Ward (+8,000, TEN). Bleacher Report 's Mo Moton even named Murray as one of his first-time winners who could tip the scales for the award in 2026 this week.
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In 2024, when the Vikings employed Sam Darnold, he briefly nibbled at MVP consideration before his final two games went off the rails — in a bad away — as Minnesota finished the season with a 14-3 record. And when Darnold arrived in the Twin Cities, he was a punchline to jokes.
If Darnold could post MVP numbers in Minnesota, why not Murray? It's not a likely outcome, but if Murray has a Comeback Player of the Year resume, that may also factor into the league's MVP race.
The Case for Mahomes
Loverich also named-dropped Mahomes as a Comeback Player of the Year candidate: "Kansas City went 6-11 in 2025 and missed the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. For a team accustomed to January football, that was a different kind of season. Mahomes had stretches where the sharpness was not there, the timing was off, and the offense looked like it was searching for answers."
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"A rough season capped off with an ACL and LCL tear late in the year. A full return to form in 2026, the kind of dominant season the league saw from him in past seasons, would generate serious award conversation. At 37%, the market is treating that scenario as probable, but the question of his timeline for return is what complicates this number."
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts following the AFC divisional round playoff game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, on Jan. 21, 2024. Mahomes helped guide Kansas City through another postseason road victory as the Chiefs continued their playoff run in difficult winter conditions against the Buffalo Bills. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports.
If you care about the Comeback Player of the Year trophy, it could be a two-horse race between Murray and Mahomes, two passers back in the saddle after 2025 season-ending injuries .
