The Southern Illinois Salukis take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, Ill. Kickoff is set for 2:00 p.m. EDT on Peacock.
Illinois is favored by 39.5 points on the spread. The total is set at 54.5 points.
Here's my Southern Illinois vs. Illinois predictionand college football pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026.
Southern Illinois vs. Illinois Pick: Southern Illinois TT Over 6.5 (-138 FanDuel, Smaller Up to 9.5 Standard Vig)
My Illinois vs. Southern Illinois best bet is on the Salukis team total over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Southern Illinois vs Illinois point spread: Southern Illinois +39.5 (-110), Illinois -39.5 (-110)
Southern Illinois vs Illinois over/under: 54.5 (-115o / -105u)
Southern Illinois received an immediate injection of productivity when DJ Williams returned to the lineup at quarterback after being injured in the opener. The Salukis offense was never the same on that road trip to West Florida, and the entire platoon struggled against Samford, which is going through a complete team rebuild and graded out as very weak.
Williams threw the ball well, completing 17-of-30 passes for 286 yards and a touchdown , but more encouraging for SIU was that he ran for 67 yards and four rushing scores. His presence behind center will change the dynamic of this offense, and Williams gives SIU a chance weekly in the competitive Missouri Valley Football Conference.
The ground attack was serviceable last week in "The War for the Wheel" rivalry game against Southeast Missouri State as Chandler Chapman ran for 71 yards while the team averaged 4.7 yards per carry. Kyle Thomas was explosive at receiver, catching five passes for 144 yards as the Salukis connected on several downfield chunk pass plays. The offensive line did not allow a sack after having allowed seven during the first two games.
The Saluki defense is still the Achilles' heel at times, and last week the stop unit was shredded by SEMO's passing game. 316 pass yards were allowed along with three plays in excess of 40 yards. The blitz packages have worked, and Southern Illinois does register a fair amount of Havoc on defense. Ibrahim Sanogo has 3.5 sacks and 6.5 TFLs, and four other players have registered at least one sack.
The Salukies will have to get home against Illinois this week, or they will be picked apart in the secondary.
Illinois enters off a home loss to Duke last week, a game they certainly have to feel they should have won. The Illini squandered several chances to put points on the board, and the defense struggled to get Duke off the field for three quarters. Quarterback Katin Houser threw the ball well, but a costly late-game interception gave Duke a ton of momentum as Illinois failed to capitalize on great field position.
The ground game has been poor, as Illinois has just one explosive rushing play over its first two weeks and, against Duke, did not produce a rush longer than nine yards. Collin Dixon shined at the receiver position, catching 11 passes for 166 yards, and the offensive line held up well against Duke's pass rush without allowing a sack. The Explosiveness we thought we might see from the offense with a new quarterback simply is not there right now.
The defense has also struggled during the first two weeks of the season, particularly in the trenches. Illinois has just a pair of sacks and ranks 120th nationally in Defensive Havoc. The secondary has been exposed by both UAB and Duke, and Illinois has struggled on third down and in the red zone.
Ohio State hosts Illinois after this final non-conference game, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if there was a little bit of lazy tackling from the team that grades out as the fourth-worst tackling unit in the country, per PFF.
This line opened with Illinois listed as 39.5-point favorites with a total set at 54.5. The Vegas implied score is 47-7, but Southern Illinois team totals are listed at 6.5, with juice to the Over.
I am playing the team total over for Southern Illinois.
Illinois grades out as the fourth-worst tackling team in the country per the advanced metrics available at PFF. Pass coverage has also been poor, and Illinois has struggled in quarantining the offenses of both UAB and Duke. Quarterback run was a problem for the Illinois defense to defend against UAB, and with a healthy DJ Williams back in the mix here, we should see several chances for breakaway runs.
The Salukis have a really nice passing game with Williams back in the mix at quarterback, and Kyle Thomas is a big-play receiver who can score from anywhere on the field. Thomas is averaging 21.1 yards per reception with three touchdowns and will have several opportunities on deep passes here. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of them connected on and for SIU to find themselves down around the goal line a couple of times.
Half of the drives Illinois has faced this year have come in the red zone. Opponents have been inside the Illini 20-yard line nine times this season, and UAB and Duke have scored on every single one of them.
There is a real chance Southern Illinois has first-and-goal two or three times in this game, and with DJ Williams and his ability to run the ball down around the goal line, I like for SIU to punch in a score or two and eclipse this low team total.
Pick: Southern Illinois TT Over 6.5 (-138 FanDuel, Smaller Up to 9.5 Standard Vig)
