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Stars Go Quietly Into Offseason With Game 6 Loss to Wild: Takeaways
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- Stars Go Quietly Into Offseason With Game 6 Loss to Wild: Takeaways
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The Dallas Stars ' fourth straight 100-plus-point season, and third straight 50-plus-win campaign, did not get them out of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Stars' season ended with another quiet offensive performance in their 5-2 defeat to the Minnesota Wild in Game 6 on Thursday night.
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Minnesota scored three third-period goals, and four straight goals after Dallas took a second-period lead, and won the best-of-7 series 4-2.
Meanwhile, Dallas is headed home without winning a playoff series for only the third time in the past eight seasons. Here are the takeaways from the Stars' season-ending defeat.
The Stars Had No Answer for Quinn Hughes
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The Wild pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal in November where they effectively traded four first-round picks — their pick this year plus three players who were chosen in the first round in his draft year — for the 2024 Norris Trophy winner.
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The series was billed as Hughes vs Miro Heiskanen in a showdown of elite blueliners. But Hughes capped his clear victory with a dominant performance in Game 6.
Hughes had two goals and three points in the series-clincher. He broke the ice by scoring first then took the slap shot from the point that set up Vladimir Tarasenko 's game-tying goal — less than a minute after Mavrik Bourque put the Stars ahead at 16:08 of the second period.
Hughes then tallied the game-winner midway through the third. He also led all postseason skaters in average time on ice (31:40) while finishing with the same number of points (8) as Dallas' leading playoff scorer, Jason Robertson .
Hughes is arguably the best defenseman in hockey. There's no shame in losing to a player like that, especially when he takes over the series the way he did.
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But Stars fans like to think Heiskanen is at least on Hughes' level, in terms of top-10 blueliners in hockey. Heiskanen didn't exactly disappear in this series — he had two goals and six points while averaging 30:30 time on ice.
But those numbers are deceiving. Heiskanen was nowhere near good enough in the series. Plus/minus is a flawed stat, but his minus-9 rating is the worst of any skater in the playoffs this year.
He was not physical enough and wilted while taking 20 hits against through six games, according to Natural Stat Trick.
"Territory-wise, I think in this series was pretty even," Stars coach Glen Gulutzan said. "I think I'd even give us the territorial advantage, but we didn't defend well enough. The chances we gave up were a lot higher-quality than we were getting with the territory we had.
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The Stars have played a lot of hockey over the past four seasons, and it's possible Heiskanen needs a longer offseason to get right — especially since he didn't get an Olympic break while playing for Finland.
But Hughes was in the Olympics too and looked like the best player on the ice all series. Matt Boldy had nine points, including a pair of empty-net goals in Game 6 and had more even-strength goals (5) than the whole Stars team (4) in the series.
"We didn't make them work hard enough for their Grade A [chances], and they've got great players that capitalized," Gulutzan said.
Dallas Finally Scored at 5-on-5
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Dallas' power play struck for its first goal when Wyatt Johnston evened the game on a beautiful passing play from Mikko Rantanen and Matt Duchene early in the second.
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The Stars then finally broke through at 5-on-5 on Bourque's goal from Michael Bunting and Ilya Lybushkin at 16:08 of the second. Bourque broke a 5-on-5 scoreless spell of 254 minutes and one second and briefly gave Dallas the lead.
The Stars' inability to score at even strength was well chronicled throughout the series, especially since they were outscored 14-4 at 5-on-5 over the six games. But fancy stats indicate Dallas was unlucky, since it had a 50.4 Expected Goal% at 5-on-5 and should have scored roughly 12 goals at 5-on-5 in the series.
Over an 82-game season, you can count the regressions to even out. But over a six-game sample, the fortunes don't always finish in a team's favor, as the Stars once again proved.
"That's a hard pill to swallow, especially for all the work our guys have put in and how much character we have on our team," Gulutzan said. "With the regular-season success, you expect more. But it goes to show you how hard it is to win."
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Still, data-focused analysts might have seen this coming, since the Stars finished with the sixth-worst 5-on-5 Corsi-for percentage (47.5%) during the regular season. Some of that was due to the disastrous injuries to both Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin , neither of whom played in the postseason due to lower-body injuries.
"For the most part we've dealt with [injuries] well all year," Gulutzan said. "It's hard to get 112 points. But to beat a team like Minnesota, you'd like to have all your pieces."
Changes may be Coming to the Stars' Core
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The bulk of Dallas' roster is locked in through at least next season, but Dallas does have a decision to make with Robertson.
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He has been the subject of trade rumors. He and the Stars have not yet found common ground on a long-term deal — despite months of negotiating.
Robertson is set to enter his final year of team control. He'll be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, and you can be sure general manager Jim Nill will try his best to lock in the 26-year-old wing.
Robertson led the team in points (96) and shared the team lead in goals in the regular season (45) and was the only consistent finisher for Dallas in the series.
Robertson is the biggest name to watch, but captain Jamie Benn may be the most sentimental for Stars fans. After 17 seasons in a Stars uniform, Benn will hit free agency July 1 for the second straight year.
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Benn was effective during the regular season, scoring 15 goals and putting up 36 points while largely playing a third-line role over his 60 games. He could come back on a similar, buy-low deal if he wants to return for his 18th season, though he did not have a point in the series against the Wild.
Dallas should start the offseason with about $10 million in cap space with which to work, assuming the NHL sets the salary cap at about $104 million in 2026-27. But Nill will have hard decisions to make with Robertson, as well as Bourque and Arttu Hyry , each of whom is due a new contract after his entry-level deal expires July 1.
If the Stars don't lock in Robertson long-term, and truly run it back with Benn on a one-year deal, the 2026-27 season could be the final one for this core. Dallas stands to have seven UFAs after 2027, including Robertson, Seguin, plus defensemen Tyler Myers and Lybushkin.
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