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State of the Penguins: Roster Predictions, Season Changes
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- State of the Penguins: Roster Predictions, Season Changes
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
It just began, and it's already ending. By Saturday afternoon, the Pittsburgh Penguins will have played their final preseason game, and the final roster decisions will come due.
Penguins winger Nick Robertson , who was also part of Kyle Dubas's roster plans when Dubas helmed the Toronto Maple Leafs , quipped on Day 1, "I played in Toronto. I'm used to a lot of guys in camp."
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Truly, the Penguins have pushed the limits in this camp, and only a few of the answers are clearer today than they were before camp began. In the end, many of the decisions will come down to preexisting knowledge and perceptions.
And therein lies the basis for projecting the Penguins roster at the start of the 2025-26 season, as well as the mid-season roster, which could differ significantly.
Undoubtedly, the Penguins have an uphill climb in a division that is markedly improved from the last couple of years, when teams squeaked into the playoffs with late flurries to surpass the magical threshold of 95 points. In 2024-25, it took only 92. However, this season will be different, probably to the detriment of the Penguins.
And the standings will play a role in what moves follow.
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As we project the final roster, which will be revealed by Monday, a few players are under heavy consideration. PHN has opined that Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke have earned NHL spots, but despite their best efforts, it seems unlikely they will break camp with the team.
Projecting Opening Night Roster
Obvious keepers: Sidney Crosby , Rickard Rakell , Evgeni Malkin , Egor Chinakhov , Tommy Novak , Ben Kindel , Bryan Rust , Blake Lizotte , Erik Karlsson , Kris Letang , Declan Carlile , Sam Girard . Arturs Silovs .
Essentially guaranteed: Connor Dewar , Nick Robertson , Andrei Kuzmenko , Trevor van Riemsdyk .
Most likely: Kaedan Korczak . Sergei Murashov .
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Likely: Elmer Soderblom , Justin Brazeau .
In the battle (Only two can be kept): Hendrix Lapierre , Filip Hallander , Ilya Solovyov , Harrison Brunicke .
Solovyov is a much better candidate than the young Brunicke for a seventh defenseman role and is the likely winner. Solovyov can play both sides and is easily the most physical defenseman on the roster. He was notable Tuesday night. However, Brunicke could leapfrog Korczak and claim a top-six spot. It seems unlikely the Penguins would waive Korczak after trading Parker Wotherspoon to acquire him, but sooner rather than later, Brunicke deserves a spot.
Hallander has been stout in camp and has outplayed most. If camp holds sway, Hallander will claim a regular spot on the fourth line.
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On the outside: Rutger McGroarty , Ville Koivunen , Avery Hayes , Tristan Broz, Owen Pickering. Caleb Jones .
Penguins Opening Night Lineup
It would seem coach Dan Muse has moved Rust down in the lineup, but to great effect. Rust has been paired with Kindel, and the chemistry looked immediate. However, there is one unresolved issue: Robertson with Crosby.
Thus far, Robertson doesn't seem to be part of the clique with Crosby and Rakell, and in fact has had to go into business for himself. Robertson told PHN that it's a work in progress.
For lineup balance and to chase future success, it seems likely that Muse will stick with it for some time, just as he did last season when he tried in vain to pair Chinakhov with Crosby for a couple of weeks.
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Penguins Lines
Robertson-Crosby-Rakell
Chinakhov-Novak-Malkin
Kuzmenko-Kindel-Rust
Dewar-Lizotte-Hallander
Extras: Brazeau, Soderblom
Defense
Carlile-Karlsson
van Riemsdyk -Letang
Girard-Korczak
Extra: Solovyov
Goalies:Silovs, Murashov.
Mid-Season Trades/Changes/Projections
Just because things begin with the above does not mean the Penguins should keep the status quo. Among the changes, expect Brunicke to force his way into the lineup, which presents a few challenges. On paper, he and Girard would seem to be a bad match; Girard has flashed an ability to control games and doesn't need to pair with a defenseman who is also offensively gifted.
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**Letang is the curious point. In the recent past, the Penguins indeed made him available on the trade market but did not find the market to their liking. For those who remember Letang's dynamic skating, his current game is not the same, and the harsh reality of age is closing in quickly. However, the situation is far more complicated than simply deeming van Riemsdyk, Brunicke, or Korczak better and proceeding accordingly.
Dubas finds himself in a spot with Letang.
**The midseason blue line could undergo several changes. If Korczak isn't more than just average, his spot will be in jeopardy to Brunicke. In fact, the Penguins need to find space for Brunicke. How they do it is less important than actually doing it.
**The elephant in the room this season is Karlsson's future. It hangs in the balance and will greatly affect the team. For Dubas, it would be a horrible blunder to keep Karlsson for a playoff chase, miss the playoffs, and then lose him for nothing in the offseason. Karlsson knows the score, and as he told PHN, he's comfortable with whatever happens.
A Karlsson trade could open a couple of spots on the blue line as coaches reshuffle the deck and look for new pairings.
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Should the Penguins trade Karlsson? Yes, unless they get his name on a new contract.
In fact, the Penguins' trades this season should have an exit feel rather than an incoming feel. Dubas hasn't indicated he is itching for a surprise, and the market has surely moved away from his trade budget. The runway is lit for the team to transition to the next phase, gain a top-10 pick that could become a future cornerstone, or use it to acquire an established cornerstone, but the question is whether the Penguins will move past this "weird" spot.
Prospects
**The abbreviated camp has been a difficult read on the Penguins' prospects. Down deep, this writer believes the prospect pool knew they weren't going to make the team and that immutable fact dulled their edge and urgency, just a bit. McGroarty hasn't stood out, but he's flashed his potential on a few occasions.
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McGroarty's best hope of cracking the NHL roster this season, aside from injuries, is if the team needs penalty killers. The roster currently doesn't have enough, unless Kindel is pressed into regular service.
**There is a lot to like about Pickering's recent ascension. He's becoming the player he can be, and in a different situation, he would be on the NHL roster Sept. 30. However, if he continues to show the good mobility at both ends and shutdown ability, he, too, will be/should be in the lineup by midseason.
**Ville Koivunen. This camp has probably been the worst-case scenario for Dubas after delivering an eight-year, $32 million contract. Koivunen has not resembled the high-scoring pest that he is in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and has remained tentative around the NHL players. No player in recent memory has shown a greater disparity between the player they could be, the player they are at the AHL level, and the player they are at the NHL level.
Thursday, we will project the Penguins' season results and the playoff possibilities.
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