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Stay or Go: Should the Mets trade Francisco Alvarez?
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- Stay or Go: Should the Mets trade Francisco Alvarez?
Because the Mets traded or waived nearly all of their pending free agents ( Brooks Raley, David Peterson, A.J. Minter, Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Luis Robert Jr.), the only notable pending free agent is Frankie Montas, whose two-year deal blew up due to a mix of injury and ineffectiveness.
Beyond that, it's possible Bo Bichette will opt out of his contract. But it would be an upset, considering that Bichette would be leaving $84 million on the table ($42 million each of the next two seasons) after posting a 97 OPS+ in order to join a free agent market that could be impacted by an expected lockout .
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That means if the Mets are going to move on from any key pieces of their offense this offseason, it will almost certainly mean doing so via trade.
With that as a backdrop, a possibility exists where New York could consider dealing one of its catchers -- something there were rumblings about ahead of the trade deadline.
Francisco Alvarez is still very young (set to enter his age-25 season in 2027) and is under team control via arbitration for three more years.
Luis Torrens signed a two-year, $11.5 million extension during the 2026 season and is under contract through 2028.
With Torrens in tow, could Alvarez be dangled this winter? Should he be?
Francisco Alvarez / Imagn Images via Reuters Connect/Envato Elements/SNY Treated Image
WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO TRADE ALVAREZ
Alvarez remains wildly inconsistent both at and behind the plate.
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After posting a career-best .787 OPS over 76 games in 2025, Alvarez appeared to be reaching a new level this past season. But then things took a turn for the worse.
The backstop entered play on Aug. 11 with a .786 OPS, but faltered badly for the remainder of the season. Over his last 31 games, Alvarez slashed .176/.224/.296 (.520 OPS) and struck out 48 times as he had serious issues laying off pitches out of the strike zone.
Overall, Alvarez fanned 129 times in 113 games in 2026. That isn't an outrageously high number for someone who often sells out for power, but it was the worst strikeout rate (30.7 percent) of his career.
Alvarez's chase rate was in the 35th percentile ( via Baseball Savant ), while he was near the bottom of the league in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage.
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His ability to block balls in the dirt was also near the very bottom of the sport, with Alvarez in the first percentile.
Meanwhile, Alvarez was limited to 113 games due to a meniscus tear in his right knee. But he also returned from that injury well ahead of his estimated timeline -- something that has been a trademark of sorts for him since reaching the majors.
Sep 4, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez (4) gestures after hitting a solo home run in the second inning against the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP ALVAREZ
While Alvarez can be a frustrating player at times, his potential remains tantalizing.
He is a player in his mid-20s with light-tower power, an incredibly strong work ethic, and a relaxed, effervescent personality.
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And even though he has a tendency to swing and miss (and his strikeout rate bears watching) Alvarez seriously impacts the baseball. This past season, his barrel percentage (96th percentile), hard hit percentage (86th percentile), and average exit velocity (80th percentile) were all elite, with his bat speed (74th percentile) well above average.
Following the season, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearnsreferred to Alvarez's season as "probably up an down," but he praised the improvements he made defensively.
"The second half, Francisco behind the plate was really encouraging," Stearns explained. "I think his defense took a step forward behind the plate. His command of the pitching staff and game-calling took a step forward in the second half. Really a credit to him for not getting down and frustrated, and a credit to our coaching staff for getting him there."
The numbers bear out what Stearns noted, with Alvarez solidly above average in 2026 when it came to pitch-framing, pop time, and caught stealing above average.
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There's also the contract status factor, with Alvarez under team control through 2029.
Entering his second year of arbitration, Alvarez will get a solid raise from the $2.4 million he made in 2026. But he will still be an absolute bargain.
New York Mets designated hitter Francisco Alvarez (4) hits a solo home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning at Rogers Centre. / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
VERDICT
Giving up on a player like Alvarez at this point would seem like a knee-jerk reaction to his end-of-season swoon.
Sure, the Mets have a very capable backup in Torrens, who is a terrific defensive catcher and would profile as a starter for a handful of other teams. But there's just no reason to shake things up.
But with the Mets having a long list of needs to address this offseason , it would seem counterintuitive to open up a hole behind the plate.
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It also needs to be noted how difficult it is to find catchers who produce like Alvarez has.
Despite his inconsistencies, Alvarez is an above average hitting catcher with the upside to develop into much more.
In a world where the Mets traded Alvarez, the backup to Torrens would likely be Hayden Senger-- meaning New York could roll with Senger (career 21 OPS+ in limited big league action) or find an Alvarez replacement in free agency or via trade.
Or they could just keep Alvarez, which should be a relatively easy call.
